Economy
NESG Forecasts 3.5% GDP Growth, 21.5% Inflation for Nigeria in 2024
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) on Wednesday said that Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product would grow at 3.50 per cent in 2024, with inflation projected to average 21.5 per cent in the year
The group made the forecasts in its 2024 macroeconomic outlook report titled Economic Transformation Roadmap: Medium Term Policy Priorities, launched in Lagos on Wednesday, noting that various reform programmes initiated by the Bola Tinubu-led government are expected to trigger an uptick in economic growth as strains on investment are addressed and low productivity in critical sectors resolved.
It said the services sector will remain the economy’s key driver, while the anticipated rebound of the country’s oil sector will push stronger real GDP growth in 2024.
As of the third quarter of 2023, Nigeria’s economy recorded a growth of 2.54 per cent, showing a slight uptick from the 2.51 per cent observed in the second quarter.
During this period, the oil sector experienced a moderated contraction, and the impact of governmental reforms targeting output enhancement had yet to materialise.
“Based on the optimistic view of a comprehensive overhaul of the country’s economic system and stable outlook, Nigeria is expected to experience inflows of investments into key sectors.
“This will result in improved sectoral productivity and generate significant jobs that would moderate or slow down the growth of unemployment in Nigeria,” the NESG said.
The group also projected the moderation of the inflation rate to 21.5 per cent from an estimated average of 24.5 per cent in 2023.
The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows Nigeria’s annual inflation rate rose to 28.92 per cent in December 2023 from 28.20 per cent in November.
The NESG said the country will experience moderate inflationary pressure this year, which aligns with that put forward by the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Mr Olayemi Cardoso, who put his target at 21.4 per cent.
“The slowdown in inflationary pressure will be driven by lower deficit monetisation structurally, relative exchange rate stability, and other heightened monetary measures by the Central Bank. In addition, food inflation will remain the fundamental driver of inflation due to increased cost of credit, insecurity, and internal displacement.
“The removal of fuel subsidies will continue to increase core inflation, primarily through high transport and energy costs,” it said.
It also projected that the rate of unemployment will slow down while anticipating enhanced productivity and output in labour-intensive sectors such as construction, agriculture, trade, and manufacturing sectors.
“The rate is anticipated to ascend to around 5.0 per cent, while the poverty headcount is expected to approach 41.5 per cent due to improved performance in these job-intensive sectors,” NESG said in its outlook.
With a population growth rate estimated at 3.2 per cent, this trajectory is set to bolster the overall impact of economic growth on real per capita income.
It said the combination of these factors, alongside a consistent policy environment, is expected to strengthen foreign capital inflows in 2024.
The country is positioned to sustain a trade surplus, increase foreign reserves, and experience diminishing exchange rate pressures throughout the year.
The NESG said with diminished political risks and enhanced returns on investments, the likelihood of attracting confident foreign investors and activating funds previously inactive among local investors appears promising.
Economy
4.964 billion Shares Worth N207.5bn Exchange Hands in 235,966 deals in Four Days
By Dipo Olowookere
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited opened its doors to market participants in four days last week as a result of a public holiday observed on Friday, June 12, for 2026 Democracy Day in the country.
In the week, investors bought and sold 4.964 billion shares worth N207.521 billion in 235,966 deals, as against the 3.966 billion shares valued at N175.659 billion that exchanged hands in 343,587 deals a week earlier.
Analysis showed that the financial services industry led the activity chart with 4.116 billion shares valued at N84.607 billion in 96,165 deals, contributing 82.92 per cent and 40.77 per cent to the total trading volume and value, respectively.
The services sector transacted 232.479 million shares worth N4.955 billion in 17,614 deals, while the industrial goods segment exchanged 144.988 million shares worth N39.077 billion in 24,775 deals.
Sterling Holdings, FCMB, and Access Holdings were the most traded stocks with 2.883 billion units sold for N36.188 billion in 15,533 deals, accounting for 58.09 per cent and 17.44 per cent of the total trading volume and value, respectively.
A total of 40 equities appreciated in the week versus 23 equities in the previous week, 53 equities depreciated versus 65 equities a week earlier, and 53 equities remained unchanged versus 58 equities in the preceding week.
ABC Transport was the best-performing equity for the week after it gained 25.60 per cent to trade at N7.80, Consolidated Hallmark appreciated by 23.13 per cent to N8.25, Abbey Mortgage Bank rose by 21.93 per cent to N11.40, Infinity Trust Mortgage Bank grew by 20.32 per cent to N11.25, and Austin Laz soared by 15.16 per cent to N4.33.
The worst-performing equity last week was Fidson Healthcare because of its 25.86 per cent loss, closing at N101.20. Neimeth declined by 19.14 per cent to N8.55, Union Homes REIT shed 17.36 per cent to close at N70.00, SUNU Assurances slipped by 11.38 per cent to N3.97, and Unilever Nigeria dropped 10.26 per cent to trade at N140.00.
As for the index movement, the All-Share Index (ASI) and the market capitalisation chalked up 0.88 per cent each to settle at 244,738.74 points and N156.970 trillion, respectively.
Similarly, all other indices finished higher apart from the pension, AFR Bank Value, MERI Growth, MERI Value, consumer goods, Lotus II, industrial goods, sovereign bond and commodity indices, which fell by 0.03 per cent, 1.20 per cent, 0.21 per cent, 1.61 per cent, 0.54 per cent, 0.51 per cent, 1.00 per cent, 2.04 per cent and 0.34 per cent, respectively.
Economy
Brent Falls to $87 Per Barrel on Expected US-Iran Peace Deal
By Adedapo Adesanya
Brent crude prices fell by $3.05 or 3.37 per cent to $87.33 per barrel on Friday, the lowest level since early March, triggered by expectations of an imminent peace agreement between the United States and Iran.
Also, the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude finished at $84.88 a barrel after it gave up $2.83 or 3.23 per cent. It was its lowest level since April 17.
Reuters reported that a memorandum between the US and Iran to halt the war in the Gulf could be signed as soon as Sunday, citing sources.
The sources indicate that the US would immediately begin releasing billions of Dollars in frozen Iranian assets and waive sanctions on its oil exports, in return for Iran opening the strait.
The proposals also include discussion of possible war reparations for Iran and dropping longstanding US demands for limits on Iran’s missile program, the sources were quoted as saying.
Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Friday that a memorandum of understanding had not yet been signed and could still change.
He also said that management of the Strait of Hormuz would not return to the pre-war era, that sovereignty over the strait belonged to Iran and Oman, and that Iran would secure safe passage for ships through it.
US President Donald Trump called off threatened air strikes against Iran on Thursday, while it was reported that final negotiations on the memorandum would focus on nuclear and economic issues but would exclude discussions about Iran’s missile programme.
On Thursday, Iran announced a complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz, saying it would fire on any ship trying to pass through.
Traffic through the strait, which normally carries a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments, has been extremely limited as a result of the war.
The US military, however, said on social media that commercial ships continued to transit the waterway.
Goldman Sachs lowered its 2027 average Brent forecast to $80 a barrel on higher supply and lower demand, but expects prices to exceed the 2025 average on stockpiling of OECD commercial oil stocks and a security premium for disruptions.
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Thursday lowered its forecast for 2026 world oil demand growth to 970,000 barrels per day from a previous 1.17 million barrels per day, its second straight downward revision.
Economy
Standard Bank Describes Dangote Refinery as Transformational Industrial Project
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
The Lagos-based Dangote Petroleum Refinery has been described by Standard Bank Group as a transformational industrial project with far-reaching implications for Nigeria and Africa.
The company, which is Africa’s largest financial institution, gave this description after a tour of the facility recently.
Standard Bank, the parent company of Stanbic IBTC Holdings, has promised to support the planned listing of the 650,000 barrels per day refinery and expressed readiness to finance future expansion projects across the continent.
The chief executive of the lender, Mr Sim Tshabalala, said, “We are here because the Dangote Group is a large and important global player and a significant force on the African continent.”
“Standard Bank is the largest financial institution in Africa, and we have partnered with Dangote on a variety of initiatives. We are here to lend support, to see this magnificent refinery and to discuss Vision 2030 and how we can continue supporting the Group’s growth ambitions,” he added.
Mr Tshabalala disclosed that Standard Bank intends to play a leading role in the refinery’s planned Initial Public Offering and future growth initiatives.
“As Dangote lists, there is an IPO coming up, and we are a leading player in that process,” he said, adding that, “As the group continues to expand in Nigeria and across Africa, there will be opportunities for financial advisory services and balance sheet support, and we stand ready to provide both.”
He further described the refinery as “a wonder of the world,” noting that its impact is already being felt through stronger foreign exchange earnings, improved balance-of-payments performance and enhanced energy security.
“This is a wonder to behold. It is massive, productive and transformative. It is already making a significant contribution to Nigeria’s economy through its impact on foreign reserves, the balance of payments and the lives of ordinary Nigerians,” he said.
The Group Vice President for Oil and Gas at Dangote Industries Limited, Mr Devakumar Edwin, said the visit represented a significant milestone in a partnership that began during the refinery’s construction phase.
“The bank visited us during construction and understood the scale of what we were building,” Mr Edwin said. “Today, the refinery is fully operational, and they can see what their support has helped to create. It is like nurturing a tree and eventually seeing it bear fruit.”
He added that both organisations are exploring opportunities to deepen collaboration as Dangote expands its industrial footprint across Africa.
Also speaking, the chief executive of Dangote Petroleum Refinery, Mr David Bird, said the visit highlighted the importance of long-term partnerships in delivering large-scale industrial projects.
“Standard Bank has been one of our strongest supporters throughout the history of the refinery and the broader Dangote Group.
“This visit was an opportunity to demonstrate what that support has enabled. Seeing is believing, and it allows our partners to appreciate the scale of what has been achieved,” Mr Bird stated.
The visit also coincided with a major operational milestone for the refinery, which has now exceeded its original design capacity.
Mr Bird disclosed that the refinery recently completed performance test runs at 700,000 barrels per day, above its nameplate capacity of 650,000 barrels per day.
“We have always believed there was engineering flexibility built into the design,” he said. “Achieving sustained production of 700,000 barrels per day is a testament to the technical capability of our people and the strength of the systems we have built.”
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