Economy
New Wheat Rust Races Found in Europe, Africa, Central Asia
By Dipo Olowookere
Wheat rust, a family of fungal diseases that can cause crop losses of up to 100 percent in untreated susceptible wheats, is making further advances in Europe, Africa and Asia, according to two new studies produced by scientists in collaboration with FAO.
The reports, highlighted in the journal Nature following their publication by Aarhus University and the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), show the emergence of new races of both yellow rust and stem rust in various regions of the world in 2016.
At the same time, well-known existing rust races have spread to new countries, the studies confirm, underlining the need for early detection and action to limit major damage to wheat production, particularly in the Mediterranean basin.
Wheat is a source of food and livelihoods for over 1 billion people in developing countries. Northern and Eastern Africa, the Near East, and West, Central and South Asia – which are all vulnerable to rust diseases − alone account for some 37 percent of global wheat production.
“These new, aggressive rust races have emerged at the same time that we’re working with international partners to help countries combat the existing ones, so we have to be swift and thorough in the way we approach this,” said FAO Plant Pathologist Fazil Dusunceli. “It’s more important than ever that specialists from international institutions and wheat producing countries work together to stop these diseases in their tracks − that involves continuous surveillance, sharing data and building emergency response plans to protect their farmers and those in neighboring countries.”
Wheat rusts spread rapidly over long distances by wind. If not detected and treated on time, they can turn a healthy looking crop, only weeks away from harvest, into a tangle of yellow leaves, black stems and shriveled grains.
Fungicides can help to limit damage, but early detection and rapid action are crucial. So are integrated management strategies in the long run.
Mediterranean most affected by new rusts
On the Italian island of Sicily, a new race of the stem rust pathogen −called TTTTF− hit several thousands of hectares of durum wheat in 2016, causing the largest stem rust outbreak that Europe has seen in decades. Experience with similar races suggests that bread wheat varieties may also be susceptible to the new race.
TTTTF is the most recently identified race of stem rust. Without proper control, researchers caution, it could soon spread over long distances along the Mediterranean basin and the Adriatic coast.
Various countries across Africa, Central Asia and Europe, meanwhile, have been battling new strains of yellow rust never before been seen in their fields.
Italy, Morocco and four Scandinavian countries have seen the emergence of an entirely new, yet-to-be-named race of yellow rust. Notably, the new race was most prevalent in Morocco and Sicily, where yellow rust until recently was considered insignificant. Preliminary analysis suggests the new race is related to a family of strains that are aggressive and better adapted to higher temperatures than most others.
Wheat farmers in Ethiopia and Uzbekistan, at the same time, have been fighting outbreaks of yellow rust AF2012, another race which reared its head in both countries in 2016 and struck a major blow to Ethiopian wheat production in particular. AF2012 was previously only found in Afghanistan, before appearing in the Horn of Africa country last year, where it affected tens of thousands of hectares of wheat.
“Preliminary assessments are worrisome, but it is still unclear what the full impact of these new races will be on different wheat varieties in the affected regions,” said Dusunceli. “That’s what research institutions across these regions will need to further investigate in the coming months.”
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, Mr Adegboyega Oyetola, has instructed the Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency (NIMASA) to initiate the long-awaited disbursement process for the Cabotage Vessel Financing Fund (CVFF).
This directive marks a significant shift from over two decades of administrative stagnation and ushers in a new era of strategic repositioning of Nigeria’s indigenous shipping.
The CVFF, established under the Coastal and Inland Shipping (Cabotage) Act of 2003, was designed to empower Nigerian shipping companies through access to structured financing for vessel acquisition. However, successive administrations failed to operationalize the fund—until now.
According to the Minister, the disbursement of the CVFF will represent not just the release of funds, but a profound commitment to empowering Nigerian maritime operators, bolstering national competitiveness, and fostering sustainable economic development.
“This is not just about disbursing funds. It’s about rewriting a chapter in our maritime history,” said Mr Oyetola. “For over 20 years, the CVFF remained a dormant promise. Today, we are bringing it to life—deliberately, transparently, and strategically,” he stated.
NIMASA, in alignment with the Minister’s directive, has already issued a Marine Notice inviting eligible Nigerian shipping companies to apply.
Qualified applicants can access up to $25 million each at competitive interest rates to acquire vessels that meet international safety and performance standards.
The fund will be administered in partnership with carefully selected and approved Primary Lending Institutions (PLIs), ensuring professional and efficient disbursement.
“We are not merely funding vessels; we are investing in a future where Nigerian shipping companies can stand shoulder-to-shoulder with their international counterparts,” Mr Oyetola said.
“This is a turning point—one that affirms our commitment to local content, economic resilience, and maritime sovereignty,” he added.
The disbursement of the CVFF is anticipated to yield far-reaching benefits. It will enable the growth of a stronger, self-sufficient shipping fleet, generate employment opportunities, stimulate local shipbuilding and repair industries, and significantly reduce capital flight associated with foreign vessel chartering.
“We are doing what should have been done years ago—because our vision is clear.”
“A strong indigenous fleet is not just a matter of pride; it is a strategic national asset. Through this intervention, we will be securing jobs, strengthening our economy, and redefining our place in the global maritime economy,” said Mr Oyetola.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria’s inflation rate edged up to 24.23 per cent in March, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Tuesday.
It was the first time since the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has risen since it was rebased in January by the stats office, which made the base year 2024 from the previous 2009.
The new rate indicates an upward movement of 1.05 per cent from the 23.18 per cent reported in February 2025, signalling a return to levels (24.48 per cent) recorded in the beginning of the year after the CPI rebasing.
This latest figures came at a time that the United States President, Mr Donald Trump, has unleashed a trade war that has triggered a sharp selloff in the price of oil, Nigeria’s main export and led to the weakening of the Naira, which will push up import costs, though this should reflect in the next CPI numbers next month.
Although the US administration announced a 90 per cent day pause on the 14 per cent reciprocal tariffs last week, its felt impact remains, as it continues to fight China.
The Nigerian government have announced plans to boost its non-oil imports to tackle the blowbacks from the trade war, which will heavily impact the global economy.
The rise in inflation will also present a challenge to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) regarding interest rates, which it paused at its last meeting.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Fitch Ratings has projected Nigeria’s external debt service to reach $5.2 billion this year from $4.7 billion in 2024, though it maintained a stable outlook for the country in its latest rating.
The agency also cited a minor delay in the payment of a Eurobond coupon due on March 28, 2025, as a reflection of persistent challenges in public finance management.
The rating firm had upgraded Nigeria’s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating to ‘B’ from ‘B-’, with a stable outlook.
The $5.2 billion in debt service, according to Fitch, includes $4.5 billion in amortisation payments and a $1.1 billion Eurobond repayment due in November.
The development highlights the growing pressure on public finances despite ongoing economic reforms by the federal government.
Fitch noted, “The government external debt service is moderate but expected to rise to $5.2 billion in 2025 (with $4.5bn of amortisations, including a $1.1 billion Eurobond repayment due in November 2025), from $4.7 billion in 2024, and fall to $3.5 billion in 2026.”
It warned that although Nigeria’s external debt service remains within manageable levels, high-interest costs, weak revenue performance, and limited fiscal space remain significant concerns, adding that general government debt was expected to remain at about 51 per cent of GDP in 2025 and 2026.
However, it expressed concerns over the government’s revenue position, noting that interest payments will consume a substantial portion of income.
“We expect general government revenue-to-GDP to rise but to remain structurally low (averaging 13.3 per cent in 2025–2026), largely accounting for a high general government interest/revenue ratio, above 30 per cent, with federal government interest/revenue ratio of nearly 50 per cent,” it stated.
The company observed that Nigeria’s gross reserves rose to $41 billion at the end of 2024, before declining to $38 billion due to debt service payments.
Despite this, Fitch expects the country’s reserves to average five months of current external payments over the medium term, above the median for similarly rated economies, adding that recent policy reforms had contributed to increased foreign exchange inflows and better monetary stability, with inflation projected to average 22 per cent in 2025.
“Net official FX inflows through the CBN and autonomous sources rose by about 89 per cent in Q4 2024. We expect continued formalisation of FX activity to support the exchange rate, although we anticipate modest depreciation in the short term,” a part of the report stated.
It commended the government’s commitment to economic reforms, including the removal of fuel subsidies, liberalisation of the exchange rate, and tightening of monetary policy, noting that these steps had improved policy credibility and strengthened Nigeria’s ability to absorb shocks.
However, the agency warned that risks to Nigeria’s external and fiscal position remained, particularly if oil prices fall or policy implementation slows down.
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