Economy
Nigeria Exits Global Tax Deal over Unreliability, Profit Reallocation Issues
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria has opted out of a global tax deal negotiated under the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OEDC)/G20 Inclusive Framework on Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS).
According to ThisDay Newspaper, Nigeria is one of the four countries alongside its African counterpart, Kenya as well as Pakistan and Sri Lanka that exited the deal.
For context, BEPS refers to corporate tax planning strategies used by multinationals to shift profits from higher tax jurisdictions to lower tax jurisdictions or no-tax locations where there is little or no economic activity, thereby eroding the tax base of the higher-tax jurisdictions using deductible payments such as interest or royalties.
Nigeria’s position was predicated, among others, on the unreliability of the economic impact of the deal for developing countries.
The OECD estimates that countries lose $100-$240 billion worth of revenue annually to BEPS practices, which is the equivalent to 4-10 per cent of the global corporate income tax revenue.
The deal set out to introduce a global minimum tax rate and new profit reallocation rules, which aim to give countries a fairer chance to collect tax revenues from multinational enterprises (MNEs) operating in or generating revenues from their jurisdictions.
In a new report titled, OECD Global Tax Deal: Key Elements, Opportunities and Challenges, Global Financial Integrity (GFI) stated that the framework represents a group of countries and jurisdictions working together to address systemic issues within the global taxation system that cause an inequitable distribution of tax revenues among countries and jurisdictions.
It operates under the leadership of the OECD, but any country or jurisdiction is allowed to join and participate.
The global tax deal represents a major reform to the rules governing the international tax system, aimed at bringing an end to tax havens and profit-shifting by multinational enterprises.
The deal specifically aims to address challenges that arise from the digitalisation of the economy and is broken down into two pillars.
Pillar 1 aims to reallocate multinationals’ profits and taxing rights to market jurisdictions while Pillar 2 introduces a global minimum tax rate.
The Inclusive Framework releases the blueprints for the two-pillar solution to address tax challenges arising from the digitalisation of the economy.
A total of 140 tax jurisdictions were part of the Inclusive Framework when the negotiations commenced, the report highlighted.
After the conclusion of the high-level agreement in October 2021, Mauritania joined the Inclusive Framework as the 141st member in November and also agreed to the two-pillar statement.
In total, 137 of the 141 member jurisdictions have agreed to the two-pillar solution while Kenya, Nigeria, Pakistan and Sri Lanka opted out.
However, Nigeria expressed concern with Pillar 1 particularly, claiming that the OECD’s assessment of the economic impact on developing countries was unreliable.
Also, the mandatory dispute resolution element was one of the reasons for Kenya and Nigeria to disapprove of the deal because of concerns around losing sovereignty due to tax issues having to be resolved in residence countries.
Although Nigeria made no disclosures of its own calculations on potential revenue, its conclusion was that it was not worth the high cost of implementation.
Some of the concerns around the deal and reasons why Nigeria and the other countries rejected it included: Lack of transparency in negotiations, exclusion of the majority of developing countries, the issue of too many MNEs out of scope, and limited impact on developing countries, among others.
According to the report, although the agreement was negotiated under the Inclusive Framework, a substantive part of the process was carried out within the G7 and G20.
This in turn made the process less transparent and gives rise to the concern that smaller and less rich countries were not given equal participation.
The newspaper also reported that the deal also excludes companies working in the extractives industry, although this sector has been flagged to be more susceptible to illicit financial flows.
Similarly, although the Inclusive Framework allows all interested jurisdictions and countries to become members, there are conditions and annual fees they have to commit to in order to join.
The majority of African (52 per cent) and Least Developed (78 per cent) countries have not joined the framework.
By Dipo Olowookere
The upward trajectory seen at the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited in the past sessions was halted on Thursday as a result of profit-taking in Aradel Holdings, MTN Nigeria, GTCO, and others.
Nigerian stocks were down by 0.43 per cent because of the selling pressure. It was the first loss in 2026 and also the first in 23 trading session. The last time Customs Street ended in red was December 10, 2025.
The decision of investors to trim their exposure to equities contracted the All-Share Index (ASI) by 714.66 points during the session to 166,057.29 points from 166,771.95 points and brought down the market capitalisation by N458 billion to N106.323 trillion from N106.781 trillion.
A look at the sectorial performance indicated that the energy, commodity, and insurance indices were down by 2.21 per cent, 1.14 per cent, and 0.24 per cent, respectively, while the banking, consumer goods, and industrial goods sectors were up by 0.78 per cent, 0.33 per cent, and 0.01 per cent apiece.
Yesterday, investor sentiment was weak after the bourse ended with 26 price gainers and 41 price losers, showing a negative market breadth index.
McNichols declined by 9.99 per cent to trade at N6.58, Caverton crashed by 9.47 per cent to N7.65, Ikeja Hotel collapsed by 9.43 per cent to N35.05, FTN Cocoa dropped 9.38 per cent to sell for N7.05, and Neimeth went down by 8.91 per cent to N9.20.
On the flip side, Nestle Nigeria gained 10.00 per cent to quote at N2,153.80, NCR Nigeria appreciated by 9.97 per cent to N116.90, Jaiz Bank improved by 9.92 per cent to N8.20, Morison Industries rose by 9.90 per cent to N5.66, and Mecure Industries grew by 9.84 per cent to N97.70.
During the session, market participants traded 1.0 billion stocks worth N31.6 billion in 51,227 deals compared with the 761.9 million stocks valued at N29.9 billion transacted in 55,751 deals at midweek, representing a drop in the number of deals by 8.12 per cent, and a surge in the trading volume and value by 31.25 per cent, and 5.69 per cent, respectively.
Sovereign Trust Insurance returned on top of the activity chart with 245.2 million units sold for N798.5 million, Access Holdings traded 78.4 million units worth N1.8 billion, Zenith Bank transacted 72.4 million units for N5.0 billion, Jaiz Bank exchanged 53.7 million units valued at N433.9 million, and Lasaco Assurance traded 53.4 million units worth N135.1 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Crude oil was down by around 4 per cent on Thursday after the United States President, Mr Donald Trump, said the crackdown on protesters in Iran was easing, calming concerns over potential military action against the Middle-East country and oil supply disruptions.
Brent crude futures depreciated by $2.76 or 4.15 per cent to $63.76 a barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell by $2.83 or 4.56 per cent, to $59.19 a barrel.
President Trump said he had been told that killings during Iran’s crackdown on protests were easing and he believed there was no current plan for large-scale executions, though he warned that the US was still weighing military action against the oil producer, which is a member of the Organisation of the Petroleum Countries (OPEC).
Thousands of people are reported to have been killed in the weeks-long protests, and the American president has vowed to support demonstrators, saying help was “on its way.”
Iran has threatened the US with reprisals were it to be attacked, alongside conciliatory signals, including the suspension of a protester’s execution.
The New York Times reported that many of the US Gulf allies, including several of Iran’s own rivals, have also pushed against a US military intervention, warning that the ripple effects would undermine regional security and damage their reputations as havens for foreign capital.
Regardless, the US withdrew some personnel from military bases in the Middle East, after a senior Iranian official said Iran had told neighbours it would hit American bases if America strikes.
Venezuela has begun reversing oil production cuts made under a US embargo, with crude exports also resuming. The OPEC member’s oil exports fell close to zero in the weeks after the US imposed a blockade on oil shipments in December, with only Chevron exporting crude from its joint ventures with PDVSA under US license.
The embargo left millions of barrels stuck in onshore tanks and vessels. As storage filled, PDVSA was forced to shut wells and order oil production cuts at joint ventures in the country.
With this development, the Venezuelan state oil company is now instructing the joint ventures to resume output from well clusters that were shut.
On the demand side, OPEC said on Wednesday that 2027 oil demand was likely to rise at a similar pace to this year and published data indicating a near balance between supply and demand in 2026, contrasting with other forecasts of a glut.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria’s crude oil production slipped slightly to 1.422 million barrels per day in December 2025 from 1.436 million barrels per day in November, according to data from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
OPEC in its Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), quoting primary sources, noted that the oil output was below the 1.5 million barrels per day quota for the nation.
The OPEC data indicate that Nigeria last met its production quota in July 2025, with output remaining below target from August through December.
Quarterly figures reveal a consistent decline across 2025; Q1: 1.468 million barrels per day, Q2: 1.481 million barrels per day, Q3: 1.444 million barrels per day, and 1.42 million barrels per day in Q4.
However, the cartel acknowledged that despite the gradual decrease in oil production, Nigeria’s non-oil sector grew in the second half of last year.
The organisation noted that “Nigeria’s economy showed resilience in 2H25, posting sound growth despite global challenges, as strength in the non-oil economy partly offset slower growth in the oil sector.”
According to the report, cooling inflation, a stronger Naira, lower refined fuel imports, and stronger remittance inflows are improving domestic and external conditions.
“A stronger naira, easing food prices due to the harvest, and a cooling in core inflation also point to gradually fading underlying pressures”, the report noted.
It forecast inflation to decelerate further on the back of past monetary tightening, currency strength, and seasonal harvest effects, though it noted that monetary policy remains restrictive.
“Seasonally adjusted real GDP growth at market prices moderated to stand at 3.9%, y-o-y, in 3Q25, down from 4.2% in 2Q25. Nonetheless, this is still a healthy and robust growth level, supported by strengthening non-oil activity, with growth in that segment rising by 0.3 percentage points to 3.9%, y-o-y. Inflation continued to decelerate in November, with headline CPI falling for an eighth straight month to 14.5%, y-o-y, following 16.1%, y-o-y, in October”.
OPEC, however, stated that while preserving recent disinflation gains is important, the persistently high policy rate – implying real interest rates of around 12% – risks weighing on aggregate demand in the near term.
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