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Nigeria Facing Large Oil Demand Destruction—IEA

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Worsening Oil Demand

By Adedapo Adesanya

Recently, the International Energy Agency (IEA) cuts its oil demand growth forecast for 2024, saying it saw evidence of demand destruction in some countries, including Nigeria, after the rise in global prices that ran throughout September.

In its Oil Market Report (OMR), the Paris-based agency put 2024 demand growth at 880,000 barrels per day compared with 990,000 barrels per day in its previous OMR.

For this year, the IEA raised its demand growth forecast slightly to 2.3 million barrels per day from 2.2 million barrels per day, citing “buoyant” results from major demand centres China, India, and Brazil.

It said there “has been some evidence of large-scale demand destruction, especially in lower-income countries like Nigeria, Pakistan and Egypt, and signs of accelerating declines within some OECD markets including the US.”

Nigeria has over the years faced crude theft and pipeline vandalism which has had a  negative impact on the country’s economy. It has also affected the contribution of the commodity to the country’s gross domestic product (GDP), which is currently at 5.23 per cent.

Consumption-wise, appetite for petrol and other energy sources have dropped with policy reforms including the removal of fuel subsidies and exchange rate unification from the President Bola Tinubu administration eroding the disposable income of Nigerians.

According to the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), the consumption of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), otherwise known as petrol, in the country as of August dropped to 52 million litres daily.

Meanwhile, the IEA left its supply forecasts unchanged for growth of 1.5 million barrels per day and 1.7 million barrels per day respectively this year and in 2024.

The voluntary cuts to supplies made by members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, OPEC+, Saudi Arabia and Russia, will keep the oil market in deficit, the IEA said.

It noted a 63.9 million barrels drawdown in global observed inventories in August, with crude stocks dropping by 102.3 million barrels to the lowest level since at least 2017.

The IEA also said that the Israel-Hamas conflict has had “no direct impact on oil flows”, adding that geopolitical risk in a region crucial for oil supplies, meaning “markets will remain on tenterhooks as the crisis unfolds”.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

Bitcoin Trading Surges Ahead of Inauguration as Open Interest Hits $237m

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Bitcoin news

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

As the world, particularly the United States prepare for the second coming of Mr Donald Trump to the White House next Monday, there have been significant interest in the cryptocurrency market.

Mr Trump, who was the President of the US from 2017 to 2021, won the 2024 presidential election by defeating the current Vice President, Ms Kamala Harris, who was the candidate of the Democratic Party, and will be sworn-in on Monday, January 20, 2025, for a second term in office.

The Head of Research at Derive.xyz, Mr Sean Dawson, while commenting on the renewed interest in Bitcoin ((BTC) and other digital coins in the market, said, “In the last 24 hours, BTC trading activity has surged, with open interest hitting an impressive $237 million.

“With 38 per cent of BTC contracts being calls bought and 37.3 per cent puts bought, it’s clear that traders are positioning for increased volatility, particularly with the inauguration just days away.

“This appetite for market swings likely reflects growing uncertainty in U.S. markets as expectations for a near-term rate cut diminish.”

“Additionally, bearish sentiment appears to be gaining traction, with BTC puts now making up 40 per cent of all open interest, a sharp increase from 20 per cent just last week. This shift suggests traders are hedging against potential downside risks as we approach the inauguration.

“Implied volatility (IV) trends further highlight this heightened uncertainty. BTC’s 7-day ATM IV has risen by 3 per cent to 56.5 per cent, while the 30-day IV is up 1.5 per cent, now at 57.5%. This steady climb points to a more volatile market sentiment leading up to the event,” he further said.

”ETH, on the other hand, has seen an even more pronounced spike in IV. Over the past 24 hours, ETH’s 7-day IV has surged by 6 per cent to 74 per cent, nearly double the rise seen in BTC.

“Meanwhile, its 30-day IV has climbed 2.5 per cent to 69.5 per cent. This disparity suggests ETH traders are anticipating greater immediate volatility, possibly due to its higher sensitivity to macroeconomic shifts and speculation surrounding post-inauguration policies.

“As the inauguration draws near, these trends underline a pivotal moment for traders, with both BTC and ETH markets reflecting a mix of caution and readiness for potential sharp moves,” Mr Dawson stated.

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Economy

Nigeria’s Inflation Jumps to 34.80% in December 2024

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inflation in Nigeria

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria’s inflation hit 34.80 per cent in December 2024 from 34.60 per cent in November 2024, spurred by festive activities.

This was disclosed by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in its first published data after almost a month of blackout on its website following a purported hack.

The December 2024 headline inflation rate showed a marginal increase of 0.20 per cent compared to the November 2024 headline inflation rate.

This was due to December festive period increases in demand for goods and services.

On a year-on-year basis, the headline inflation rate was 5.87 per cent higher than the rate recorded in December 2023 (28.92 per cent). This shows that the headline inflation rate (year-on-year basis) increased in December 2024 compared to the same month in the preceding year (i.e., December 2023).

On the contrary, the month-on-month basis, the headline inflation rate in December 2024 was 2.44 per cent, which was 0.20 per cent lower than the rate recorded in November 2024 at 2.64 per cent.

This means that in December 2024, the rate of increase in the average price level is slightly lower than the rate of increase in the average price level in November 2024.

Meanwhile, the food inflation rate in the festive month was 39.84 per cent on a year-on-year basis, 5.91 per cent points higher compared to the rate recorded in December 2023 at 33.93 per cent.

The rise in food inflation on a year-on-year basis was caused by increases in prices of the following items; yam, water yam, sweet potatoes, etc (potatoes, yam & other tubers class), beer, pinto (tobacco class), guinea corn, maize grains, rice, etc (bread and cereals class), and dried fish-sadine, catfish dried, etc (fish class).

On a month-on-month basis, the Food inflation rate in December 2024 was 2.66 per cent which shows a 0.32 per cent decrease compared to the rate recorded in November 2024 at 2.98 per cent.

The decline can be attributed to the rate of decrease in the average prices of local beer (burukutu), pinto (tobacco Class), fruit juice in tin, malt drinks, etc (soft drinks class), rice, millet, maize flour, etc (bread and cereals class) and water yam, irish potatoes, coco yam, etc (potatoes, yam & other tubers class).

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Economy

Tinubu Seeks Investors’ Support on Third Sovereign Green Bond Issuance

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Nigeria's green bond market

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

President Bola Tinubu has called on investors to collaborate with his administration on the issuance of the third Sovereign Green Bond later this year.

Speaking on Wednesday in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Mr Tinubu said his government was ready to work with other nations to build a resilient, equitable, and sustainable world for all.

“Our energy transition plans, like many nations, are aimed at diversifying energy sources and reducing dependency on fossil fuels, prioritising the transition to cleaner energy sources as a cornerstone of our national development strategy,” the President said on the second day of the 2025 Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week themed From Climate Imperatives into Economic Prosperity: Bridging Africa with the Global Energy Future.

He called on partner countries to collaborate in mobilising resources to tackle these challenges and embrace innovation and technology.

“To promote a Green Economy in Africa, we must focus on integrating sustainable practices in all sectors of our economy.

“These investments are capital intensive and require international support from partner countries, including multinational organisations, development partners and individuals who share our vision of a sustainable, prosperous and equitable future,” he stated.

President Tinubu said, “Nigeria became the first country in Africa to initiate funding of green projects through Sovereign Green Bond proceeds, the third issuance of which is in progress.

“We urge investors to partner with us in this regard. Our administration remains committed to providing an enabling environment for businesses to thrive in Nigeria.

“By partnering with global leaders and harnessing the power of technology, we are finding new and innovative ways to address our environmental challenges. We have arable agricultural lands for advanced technological farming, including a bright future for Artificial Intelligence.”

He declared that no single nation can walk the road to sustainability alone, stressing that global interconnectedness demands collective action, knowledge sharing, and mutual support.

“The fight against climate change is not merely an environmental necessity but a global economic opportunity to reshape the trajectory of our continent and the global energy landscape.

“As leaders, stakeholders and citizens of our planet, we stand at a critical juncture in human history. To succeed, we must innovate, collaborate and act decisively as one global community,” the Nigerian leader disclosed.

Reiterating his administration’s commitment to reducing carbon emissions, President Tinubu assured the audience that the Nigerian government had developed actionable programmes in line with global expectations, bearing in mind Nigeria’s economic and political expectations.

“We have embraced a vision of sustainability that aligns with global aspirations while addressing local realities. Our efforts are anchored on three pillars: Energy Transition, Climate Resilience, and Sustainable Development.

“My administration recognises the importance of reducing carbon emissions and a just transition to clean and renewable energy, promoting environmental sustainability and economic growth,” he noted.

Mr Tinubu added that Nigeria is developing infrastructure for the widespread use of Compressed Natural Gas and electric vehicles and harnessing the potential in solid minerals to support the green energy transition.

He stressed that his country is also implementing climate-smart agricultural practices to enhance food security and lessen its destructive environmental impact.

These include the introduction of the National Clean Cooking Policy, which aims to promote clean energy, environmental and health benefits, and socio-economic development in the African region.

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