Economy
Nigeria May Begin to Borrow to Service Debts by 2025—Paul Alaje
By Dipo Olowookere
A renowned economist and Partner at SPM Professional, Mr Paul Alaje, has warned that the debt profile of Nigeria may continue to rise, with the nation not making enough to service it, and resorting to borrowing to pay interests on the borrowings.
He said this when he appeared as a guest on Arise Television’s breakfast programme, The Morning Show, on Monday, January 8, 2024.
Business Post reports that in December 2023, the Debt Management Office (DMO) said Nigeria’s total public debt stock was 87.91 trillion in the third quarter of last year.
It was also reported by this newspaper that after the approval of the securitisation of the N7.5 trillion ways and means by the National Assembly, the debt profile of the country could rise to N95 trillion.
Speaking on Arise TV today, Mr Alaje charged the government of Mr Bola Tinubu to look for innovative ways to generate more revenue for the country, especially from the solid minerals sector, tasking the federal government to slow down its appetite for borrowing and improve its revenue.
“The truth is that, by 2025, we will have to borrow to service debt. What does that mean? We will still put our revenue projection but by the end of 2025, when the 2026 budget is presented, we may need to borrow to service debt, I hope this will not be the situation because it is not a good projection.
“Unfortunately, if we don’t depart from the current situation, this may be where we find ourselves,” he said on the show monitored by Business Post.
Speaking further, he said, “You ask whether the 2024 budget inspires hope and by our training and the oath we swore, it is not for me to say yes or no but there are things we need to look at in the budget to arrive at an answer.
“Nigeria is expected to grow between 7 and 12 per cent gross domestic product (GDP) if we want to be at par with other nations. The budget has said we should grow by over 3 per cent; the inflation, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is expected to be 6 to 9 per cent, but this budget said 21 per cent this year perhaps because it is the first budget of President Tinubu. This budget is already telling us that things are going to be tough, that is the price of commodities you bought in 2023 will increase by an average of 21 per cent in 2024.
“Most importantly, Mr President spoke on the human development index and he said it is the key area he is focusing but let’s zoom on it a little. We are expected to invest between 20 and 25 per cent of our annual budget but when you see what went into education, we are doing less than 6 per cent instead of 15 to 25 per cent.
“Let’s look at health, which should be 15 per cent based on the Abuja Accord but the 2024 budget is doing less than that. Are these inspiring as you asked me earlier? I want to believe his next budget would be better.
“I hope the budget deficit does not increase times two because we have N8 trillion proposed deficit in 2024 but that may rise to about N12 trillion or double. Just write this down and keep it to around November or December when you will see a supplementary budget without revenue expectation as we have done in the last 12 years.
“You should start to see pressure from the end of the first quarter when the government compares its revenue expectations with the actual earnings; there will be a mismatch because fundamentally, there is a need for an adjustment that has not been done,” he stated.
Economy
UK Backs Nigeria With Two Flagship Economic Reform Programmes
By Adedapo Adesanya
The United Kingdom via the British High Commission in Abuja has launched two flagship economic reform programmes – the Nigeria Economic Stability & Transformation (NEST) programme and the Nigeria Public Finance Facility (NPFF) -as part of efforts to support Nigeria’s economic reform and growth agenda.
Backed by a £12.4 million UK investment, NEST and NPFF sit at the centre of the UK-Nigeria mutual growth partnership and support Nigeria’s efforts to strengthen macroeconomic stability, improve fiscal resilience, and create a more competitive environment for investment and private-sector growth.
Speaking at the launch, Cynthia Rowe, Head of Development Cooperation at the British High Commission in Abuja, said, “These two programmes sit at the heart of our economic development cooperation with Nigeria. They reflect a shared commitment to strengthening the fundamentals that matter most for our stability, confidence, and long-term growth.”
The launch followed the inaugural meeting of the Joint UK-Nigeria Steering Committee, which endorsed the approach of both programmes and confirmed strong alignment between the UK and Nigeria on priority areas for delivery.
Representing the Government of Nigeria, Special Adviser to the President of Nigeria on Finance and the Economy, Mrs Sanyade Okoli, welcomed the collaboration, touting it as crucial to current, critical reforms.
“We welcome the United Kingdom’s support through these new programmes as a strong demonstration of our shared commitment to Nigeria’s economic stability and long-term prosperity. At a time when we are implementing critical reforms to strengthen fiscal resilience, improve macroeconomic stability, and unlock inclusive growth, this partnership will provide valuable technical support. Together, we are laying the foundation for a more resilient economy that delivers sustainable development and improved livelihoods for all Nigerians.”
On his part, Mr Jonny Baxter, British Deputy High Commissioner in Lagos, highlighted the significance of the programmes within the wider UK-Nigeria mutual growth partnership.
“NEST and NPFF are central to our shared approach to strengthening the foundations that underpin long-term economic prosperity. They sit firmly within the UK-Nigeria mutual growth partnership.”
Economy
MTN Nigeria, SMEDAN to Boost SME Digital Growth
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
A strategic partnership aimed at accelerating the growth, digital capacity, and sustainability of Nigeria’s 40 million Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) has been signed by MTN Nigeria and the Small and Medium Enterprises Development Agency of Nigeria (SMEDAN).
The collaboration will feature joint initiatives focused on digital inclusion, financial access, capacity building, and providing verified information for MSMEs.
With millions of small businesses depending on accurate guidance and easy-to-access support, MTN and SMEDAN say their shared platform will address gaps in communication, misinformation, and access to opportunities.
At the formal signing of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on Thursday, November 27, 2025, in Lagos, the stage was set for the immediate roll-out of tools, content, and resources that will support MSMEs nationwide.
The chief operating officer of MTN Nigeria, Mr Ayham Moussa, reiterated the company’s commitment to supporting Nigeria’s economic development, stating that MSMEs are the lifeline of Nigeria’s economy.
“SMEs are the backbone of the economy and the backbone of employment in Nigeria. We are delighted to power SMEDAN’s platform and provide tools that help MSMEs reach customers, obtain funding, and access wider markets. This collaboration serves both our business and social development objectives,” he stated.
Also, the Chief Enterprise Business Officer of MTN Nigeria, Ms Lynda Saint-Nwafor, described the MoU as a tool to “meet SMEs at the point of their needs,” noting that nano, micro, small, and medium businesses each require different resources to scale.
“Some SMEs need guidance, some need resources; others need opportunities or workforce support. This platform allows them to access whatever they need. We are committed to identifying opportunities across financial inclusion, digital inclusion, and capacity building that help SMEs to scale,” she noted.
Also commenting, the Director General of SMEDAN, Mr Charles Odii, emphasised the significance of the collaboration, noting that the agency cannot meet its mandate without leveraging technology and private-sector expertise.
“We have approximately 40 million MSMEs in Nigeria, and only about 400 SMEDAN staff. We cannot fulfil our mandate without technology, data, and strong partners.
“MTN already has the infrastructure and tools to support MSMEs from payments to identity, hosting, learning, and more. With this partnership, we are confident we can achieve in a short time what would have taken years,” he disclosed.
Mr Odii highlighted that the SMEDAN-MTN collaboration would support businesses across their growth needs, guided by their four-point GROW model – Guidance, Resources, Opportunities, and Workforce Development.
He added that SMEDAN has already created over 100,000 jobs within its two-year administration and expects the partnership to significantly boost job creation, business expansion, and nationwide enterprise modernisation.
Economy
NGX Seeks Suspension of New Capital Gains Tax
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited is seeking review of the controversial Capital Gains Tax increase, fearing it will chase away foreign investors from the country’s capital market.
Nigeria’s new tax regime, which takes effect from January 1, 2026, represents one of the most significant changes to Nigeria’s tax system in recent years.
Under the new rules, the flat 10 per cent Capital Gains Tax rate has been replaced by progressive income tax rates ranging from zero to 30 per cent, depending on an investor’s overall income or profit level while large corporate investors will see the top rate reduced to 25 per cent as part of a wider corporate tax reform.
The chief executive of NGX, Mr Jude Chiemeka, said in a Bloomberg interview in Kigali, Rwanda that there should be a “removal of the capital gains tax completely, or perhaps deferring it for five years.”
According to him, Nigeria, having a higher Capital Gains Tax, will make investors redirect asset allocation to frontier markets and “countries that have less tax.”
“From a capital flow perspective, we should be concerned because all these international portfolio managers that invest across frontier markets will certainly go to where the cost of investing is not so burdensome,” the CEO said, as per Bloomberg. “That is really the angle one will look at it from.”
Meanwhile, the policy has been defended by the chairman of the Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, who noted that the new tax will make investing in the capital market more attractive by reducing risks, promoting fairness, and simplifying compliance.
He noted that the framework allows investors to deduct legitimate costs such as brokerage fees, regulatory charges, realised capital losses, margin interest, and foreign exchange losses directly tied to investments, thereby ensuring that they are not taxed when operating at a loss.
Mr Oyedele also said the reforms introduced a more inclusive approach to taxation by exempting several categories of investors and transactions.
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