Economy
Nigeria May Begin to Borrow to Service Debts by 2025—Paul Alaje
By Dipo Olowookere
A renowned economist and Partner at SPM Professional, Mr Paul Alaje, has warned that the debt profile of Nigeria may continue to rise, with the nation not making enough to service it, and resorting to borrowing to pay interests on the borrowings.
He said this when he appeared as a guest on Arise Television’s breakfast programme, The Morning Show, on Monday, January 8, 2024.
Business Post reports that in December 2023, the Debt Management Office (DMO) said Nigeria’s total public debt stock was 87.91 trillion in the third quarter of last year.
It was also reported by this newspaper that after the approval of the securitisation of the N7.5 trillion ways and means by the National Assembly, the debt profile of the country could rise to N95 trillion.
Speaking on Arise TV today, Mr Alaje charged the government of Mr Bola Tinubu to look for innovative ways to generate more revenue for the country, especially from the solid minerals sector, tasking the federal government to slow down its appetite for borrowing and improve its revenue.
“The truth is that, by 2025, we will have to borrow to service debt. What does that mean? We will still put our revenue projection but by the end of 2025, when the 2026 budget is presented, we may need to borrow to service debt, I hope this will not be the situation because it is not a good projection.
“Unfortunately, if we don’t depart from the current situation, this may be where we find ourselves,” he said on the show monitored by Business Post.
Speaking further, he said, “You ask whether the 2024 budget inspires hope and by our training and the oath we swore, it is not for me to say yes or no but there are things we need to look at in the budget to arrive at an answer.
“Nigeria is expected to grow between 7 and 12 per cent gross domestic product (GDP) if we want to be at par with other nations. The budget has said we should grow by over 3 per cent; the inflation, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is expected to be 6 to 9 per cent, but this budget said 21 per cent this year perhaps because it is the first budget of President Tinubu. This budget is already telling us that things are going to be tough, that is the price of commodities you bought in 2023 will increase by an average of 21 per cent in 2024.
“Most importantly, Mr President spoke on the human development index and he said it is the key area he is focusing but let’s zoom on it a little. We are expected to invest between 20 and 25 per cent of our annual budget but when you see what went into education, we are doing less than 6 per cent instead of 15 to 25 per cent.
“Let’s look at health, which should be 15 per cent based on the Abuja Accord but the 2024 budget is doing less than that. Are these inspiring as you asked me earlier? I want to believe his next budget would be better.
“I hope the budget deficit does not increase times two because we have N8 trillion proposed deficit in 2024 but that may rise to about N12 trillion or double. Just write this down and keep it to around November or December when you will see a supplementary budget without revenue expectation as we have done in the last 12 years.
“You should start to see pressure from the end of the first quarter when the government compares its revenue expectations with the actual earnings; there will be a mismatch because fundamentally, there is a need for an adjustment that has not been done,” he stated.
Economy
Insurance Firms Must Submit 2025 Assessment Returns by May 31—NAICOM
By Adedapo Adesanya
The National Insurance Commission has issued new guidelines for the collection, management, and administration of the Insurance Policyholders’ Protection Fund.
In a circular issued to all insurance institutions on Tuesday, the regulator also set May 31, 2026, as the deadline for insurers to submit their assessment returns for the 2025 financial year.
Recall that on August 5, 2025, President Bola Tinubu signed into law the Nigerian Insurance Industry Reform Act ( NIIRA 2025).
This landmark legislation repeals the Insurance Act 2003, and consolidates related provisions, ushering in a modern regulatory framework. It lays a strong foundation for sustainable growth and increased investment in the country’s insurance sector.
The commission said the guidelines were issued in exercise of its powers under the 2025 Act and other existing insurance laws and regulations to provide regulatory clarity, improve guidance, and ensure ease of compliance across the industry.
According to NAICOM, the guidelines establish a comprehensive structure for the operation of the IPPF, which serves as a statutory safety net to protect insurance policyholders in the event of distress or insolvency of a licensed insurer or reinsurer. The framework also provides direction on the reimbursement of loans by insurers and reinsurers.
NAICOM stated, “The guidelines ensure regulatory clarity, guidance and ease of compliance, as it provides a comprehensive regulatory framework for the collection, management, and administration of the Fund, which serves as a statutory safety net designed to protect insurance policyholders against distress and insolvency of a licensed insurer or reinsurer, including guidance for the reimbursement of loans by an insurer or reinsurer.
“Please be informed that the IPPF Assessment Returns in respect of the year 2025 shall be submitted to the Commission not later than 31st May 2026, while subsequent submissions shall be in line with Section 4.3 of the Guideline on Insurance Policyholders Protection Fund.”
Economy
Dangote Refinery Sells Petrol at N1,200/L as Global Oil Prices Slump
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Dangote Refinery on Wednesday returned the petrol price to N1,200 per litre, less than 24 hours after it increased it by 5 per cent.
The private refinery had raised the ex-depot price by N75 on Tuesday, citing pressure from volatile global oil markets, but quickly brought it back to N1,200 per litre from N1,275 per litre.
The swift downward review is directly linked to a sharp drop in international crude prices. Brent crude has plunged to $95.05 per barrel, after a 13 per cent decline, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude closed at $97.18, recording nearly a 14 per cent drop.
This development comes after US President Donald Trump announced a conditional two-week ceasefire with Iran, which eased fears of immediate supply disruptions in the global oil market.
“This will be a double-sided CEASEFIRE!” Trump said on social media, marking a sharp reversal from his earlier warning that “a whole civilisation will die tonight” if Iran failed to comply with US demands.
Iran’s Foreign Minister, Mr Abbas Araqchi, confirmed that the country would halt attacks provided strikes against Iran cease and transit through the Strait of Hormuz is coordinated by Iranian forces.
Despite the breakthrough, tensions remain elevated across the region, with several Gulf states reporting missile launches, drone activity, or issuing civil defence warnings.
While oil prices have fallen back below $100, they remain significantly elevated after surging by a record amount in March. Market analysts noted that regardless of how successful the ceasefire is, geopolitical risk related to the Strait of Hormuz is likely to remain elevated for the foreseeable future under the control of Iran.
Economy
Crude Deliveries Double to Dangote Refinery in Mix of Naira, Dollar Supply
By Adedapo Adesanya
Crude oil deliveries from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery doubled in March, boosting prospects for improved fuel availability.
This was revealed by the chief executive of Dangote Industries Limited, Mr Aliko Dangote, on Tuesday, when he received the Deputy Secretary-General of the United Nations, Mrs Amina Mohammed, at the industrial complex in Ibeju-Lekki, Lagos.
While speaking on feedstock supply, Mr Dangote commended the NNPC for increasing crude deliveries to the refinery in March, noting that volumes rose to 10 cargoes—six supplied in Naira and four in Dollars—to support domestic fuel availability, according to a statement by the Refinery.
“Last month, they gave us six cargoes for Naira and four cargoes for Dollars,” he said.
Despite the improvement, Mr Dangote noted that the supply remains below the 19 cargoes required for optimal operations, with the refinery continuing to bridge the gap through imports from the United States and other African producers.
He also expressed concern over the unwillingness of international oil companies operating in Nigeria to sell to the refinery, stating that their preference for selling crude to traders forces it to repurchase at higher costs, with broader implications for the economy.
Mr Dangote added that the refinery is seeking increased access to domestically priced crude under local currency arrangements as part of efforts to moderate fuel costs and enhance long-term energy and food security across the continent.
On her part, Mrs Mohammed underscored the strategic importance of Dangote Industries Limited -particularly Dangote Fertiliser Limited—in addressing Africa’s mounting food security challenges, while calling for stronger global partnerships to scale its impact.
Mrs Mohammed said the United Nations would prioritise amplifying scalable solutions capable of mitigating the continent’s food crisis, describing Dangote’s integrated industrial model as a critical pathway.
“I think the UN’s job here is to amplify and to put visibility on the possibilities of mitigating a food security crisis, and this is one of them,” she said. “I hope that when we go back, we can continue to engage partners and countries that should collaborate with Dangote Industries.”
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