Economy
Nigeria May See 4.4% GDP Growth, 17.1% Inflation in H2 2025—FSDH
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria may achieve an economic growth of 4.4 per cent and a moderate inflation of 17.1 per cent if crude oil production improves, analysts at FSDH Merchant Bank have projected.
In a report released last week, the firm in its Nigeria Macroeconomic Report for the First Half of 2025, offered critical insights into the global and domestic economic environment.
The report titled Balancing on the Edge in a Fragile World dissected the complex interplay of global disruptions and Nigeria’s economic performance, while providing a forward-looking projection for the second half of 2025.
It said despite global trade tensions, geopolitical unrest in the Middle East, and fragile capital flows, Nigeria showed signs of resilience, underpinned by expanding non-oil exports, moderating inflation, and improving investor sentiment.
“Nigeria has demonstrated encouraging signs of macroeconomic stability in the face of global headwinds. Our PMI data suggests an expanding economy, inflation is decelerating, and exchange rate reforms are strengthening market confidence. However, sustaining this progress requires deep structural reforms, especially in energy, trade, and fiscal management,” the chief executive of FSDH Merchant Bank, Mrs Bukola Smith, was quoted as saying in the note.
For the first half of the year, the report noted that Israel-Iran conflict and a renewed tariff war under US President Donald Trump have triggered global uncertainty, with the IMF cutting global growth projections, adding that oil price volatility and trade disruptions are shaping Nigeria’s external outlook.
It also noted that Nigeria’s inflation has moderated following a revision in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) methodology, inflation slowed from 24.5 per cent in January to 23 per cent in May 2025.
The firm also affirmed that exchange rate reforms were working.
“The Naira showed relative stability, trading within a narrower band. FX reforms and CBN’s transparency have restored investor confidence,” it said, adding that, “Though official GDP data is pending, the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) stayed above the 50-point threshold throughout H1, reflecting economic expansion across agriculture, industry, and services.”
It revealed that despite a decline in oil’s share of exports to 62.9 per cent (from 81 per cent in Q1 2024), crude oil production remains below budget benchmarks. This shortfall may affect fiscal performance unless addressed.
Other pointers include NGX All Share Index (NGX-ASI) which returned 16.6 per cent YTD, outperforming many global peers, while foreign portfolio investments surged to $5.03 billion in Q1 as well as the passage of four major tax laws in June, aiming to harmonize tax administration, increase compliance, and improve equity.
“These are expected to raise the tax-to-GDP ratio from 10 per cent to 18 per cent in three years,” it said.
The report then projects that if oil production improves and inflation continues its downward trend in the current half of this year, Nigeria may achieve GDP growth of 4.4 per cent, inflation at 17.1 per cent, and external reserves of $44.3 billion, provided oil output and reforms align in a best-case scenario.
However, Nigeria must leverage current momentum to deepen economic diversification, accelerate reforms in the power and petroleum sectors, and maintain coordination between fiscal and monetary policy.
“Investor sentiment has begun to turn positive. Nigeria’s bond and T-bill markets are attracting renewed interest, and equity markets are gaining momentum.
“At FSDH, we understand that in times like this, clarity and partnership matter more than ever. While we can’t control global events or predict every market move, we remain committed to helping you navigate the complexity with perspective, precision, and purpose,” the Executive Director for Global Markets and Institutional Banking at FSDH, Mr Hakeem Muhammed, said.
The report also noted cautious optimism in the bond and NT-Bills market, as yields softened in response to improved macro indicators, while oil sector stocks on the NGX continued to underperform due to global crude price pressures.
“With the MPR at 27.5 per cent, prime lending rates currently exceed 30 per cent, but projected downward trends in H2 2025 offer a more favourable outlook for debt-funded expansion and capital investments,” added Mrs Stella-Marie Omogbai, Executive Director, Corporate Banking and Branches, FSDH Merchant Bank, “Interest rates are expected to ease due to projections on MPC rates dropping to at least 27 per cent, supported by fresh capital inflows in the banking industry and reduced inflation concerns.”
“FSDH, in partnership with DFIs, will continue to provide funding at competitive rates to help businesses grow,” she further stated.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The deadline for filing of employers’ annual tax returns in Lagos State has been extended by one week from February 1 to 7, 2026.
This information was revealed in a statement signed by the Head of Corporate Communications of the Lagos State Internal Revenue Service (LIRS), Mrs Monsurat Amasa-Oyelude.
In the statement issued over the weekend, the chairman of the tax collecting organisation, Mr Ayodele Subair, explained that the statutory deadline for filing of employers’ annual tax returns is January 31, every year, noting that the extension is intended to provide employers with additional time to complete and submit accurate tax returns.
According to him, employers must give priority to the timely filing of their annual returns, noting that compliance should be embedded as a routine business practice.
He also reiterated that electronic filing through the LIRS eTax platform remains the only approved method for submitting annual returns, as manual filings have been completely phased out. Employers are therefore required to file their returns exclusively through the LIRS eTax portal: https://etax.lirs.net.
Describing the platform as secure, user-friendly, and accessible 24/7, Mr Subair advised employers to ensure that the Tax ID (Tax Identification Number) of all employees is correctly captured in their submissions.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The chief executive of Airtel Africa Plc, Mr Sunil Kumar Taldar, has disclosed that the company is still on track to list its mobile money business, Airtel Money, before the end of June 2026.
Recall that Business Post reported in March 2024 that the mobile network operator was considering selling the shares of Airtel Money to the public through the IPO vehicle in a transaction expected to raise about $4 billion.
The firm had been in talks with possible advisors for a planned listing of the shares from the initial public offer on a stock exchange with some options including London, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), or Europe.
However, so far no final decisions have been made regarding the timing, location, or scale of the IPO.
In September 2025, the telco reportedly picked Citigroup Incorporated as advisors for the planned IPO which will see Airtel Money become a standalone entity before it can attain the prestige of trading on a stock exchange.
Mr Taldar, noted that metrics continued to show improvements ahead of the listing with its customer base hitting 52 million, compared to around 44.6 million users it had as of June 2025.
He added that the subsidiary processed over $210 billion in a year, according to the company’s nine-month financial results released on Friday.
“Our push to enhance financial inclusion across the continent continues to gain momentum with our Mobile Money customer base expanding to 52 million, surpassing the 50 million milestone. Annualised total processed value of over $210 billion in Q3’26 underscores the depth of our merchants, agents, and partner ecosystem and remains a key player in driving improved access to financial services across Africa.
“We remain on track for the listing of Airtel Money in the first half of 2026,” Mr Taldar said.
Estimating Airtel Money at $4 billion is higher than its valuation of $2.65 billion in 2021. In 2021, Airtel Money received significant investments, including $200 million from TPG Incorporated at a valuation of $2.65 billion and $100 million from Mastercard. Later that same year, an affiliate of Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund also acquired an undisclosed stake in the unit.
The mobile money sector in Africa is expanding rapidly, driven by a young population increasingly adopting technology for financial services, making the continent a key market for fintech companies.
By Dipo Olowookere
A cryptocurrency investor and owner of Polyfarm, Mr Bamu Gift Wandji, is currently cooling off in the custody of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC).
He was handed over to the anti-money laundering agency by the Nigerian Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC) on Friday, January 30, 2026, after his arrest on Monday, January 12, 2026.
A statement from the EFCC yesterday disclosed that the suspect was apprehended by the NSCDC in Gwagwalada, Abuja for running an investment scheme without the authorisation of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which is the apex capital market regulator in Nigeria.
It was claimed that Mr Wandji created a fraudulent crypto investment platform called Polyfarm, where he allegedly lured innocent Nigerians to invest in Polygon, a crypto token that attracts high returns.
Investigation further revealed that he also deceived the public that his project, Polyfarm, has its native token called “polyfarm coin” which he sold to the public.
In his bid to promote the scheme, the suspect posted about this on social media platforms, including WhatsApp, X (formally Twitter) and Telegram. He also conducted seminars in some major cities in Nigeria including Kaduna, Lagos, Port Harcourt and Abuja where he described the scheme as a life-changing programme.
Further investigation revealed that in October, 2025, subscribers who could not access their funds were informed by the suspect that the site was attacked by Lazarus group, a cyber attacking group linked to North Korea.
Further investigations showed that Polyfarm is not registered and not licensed with SEC to carry out crypto transactions in Nigeria. Also, no investment happened with subscribers’ funds and that the suspect used funds paid by subscribers to pay others in the name of profit.
Investigation also revealed that native coin, polyfarm coin was never listed on coin market cap and that the suspect sold worthless coins to the general public.
Contrary to the claim of the suspect that his platform was attacked, EFCC’s investigations revealed that the platform was never attacked or hacked by anyone and that the suspect withdrew investors’ funds and utilized the same for his personal gains.
The EFCC, in the statement, disclosed that Mr Wandji would be charged to court upon conclusion of investigations.
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