Economy
Nigeria Must Widen Tax Base, Diversify Economy—UBS Report
By Dipo Olowookere
Federal Government has been advised to widen its tax base and broaden its activities away from oil if it must continue to grow its economy.
Also, according to the latest report by UBS Wealth Management’s Chief Investment Office, the liberalization of Naira exchange rates will be crucial in attracting foreign investment.
UBS, which today launched Africa: Cradle of Diversity, a new report on the continent’s economic prospects and challenges, highlights that of the 64 nations the IMF projects to have average real GDP growth of more than 4 percent in the next five years, more than half are in Africa.
It said as Africa’s largest country both in terms of GDP and population, Nigeria offers enormous potential for the nation’s domestic market.
The UN expects Nigeria’s population to reach up to 1 billion people by 2100, offering unusual potential for growth. At the same time, population growth presents a significant challenge in terms of job creation for new labour market entrants and the nation’s geographic limitations, considering Nigeria’s territory is approximately the size of Texas.
In addition, UBS CIO research shows that indicators relating to governance and ease of doing business are clearly weaker than for peers, thus underpinning the need for reforms as foreseen in Nigeria’s Economic Recovery and Growth Plan.
Decisive factors outlined in the report include efforts to broaden the country’s tax base and to diversify its economy. Nigeria’s revenue base heavily relies on oil-related activities, which exposes the nation’s fiscal balance to energy price shocks and volatility risks.
Nigeria is Africa’s largest oil exporter and while commodity exports remain a major growth driver in many African countries, their importance is slowly declining as domestic demand plays an expanding role in sustaining growth.
Some of the continent’s fastest growing economies are concentrated in non-resource-rich countries like Côte d’Ivoire, Senegal, Kenya and Ethiopia, which are expected to grow between 6 percent and 8 percent in the next few years.
The report points out that the manufacturing industry is probably one of the most overlooked sectors in Africa, despite the continent’s potential to become the world’s next low-cost manufacturing hub and a leading global player in resource-intensive manufacturing.
Competitive labour costs, abundance of raw materials, convenient transit locations for export and large markets for local consumption position many African countries well to replace Asian competitors as attractive locations to produce goods and draw manufacturing foreign direct investment.
In the short term, further progress toward the liberalization of the Nigerian currency’s exchange rate will have a decisive impact on the inflow of such investment.
Ali Janoudi, Head of Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa, France and Belgium International at UBS Wealth Management, said: “We see tremendous potential for Nigeria’s economy, which is Africa’s largest, but in order to achieve its potential, current reform programs must be implemented and in some instances, accelerated. The current climate of higher energy prices and relative domestic stability indicate now is the right time to act.”
Michael Bolliger, Head of Emerging Market Asset Allocation at UBS Wealth Management’s CIO, said: “In the near term, oil will remain an important source of income for Nigeria. However, the impressive growth rates of non-resource-rich countries in Africa clearly indicate that development beyond oil is the way forward.”
By Adedapo Adesanya
The United Arab Emirates has announced its decision to quit the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to focus on national interests.
This dealt a heavy blow to the oil-exporting group at a time when the US-Israel war on Iran had caused a historic energy shock and rattled the global economy.
The move, which will take effect on May 1, 2026, reflects “the UAE’s long-term strategic and economic vision and evolving energy profile”, a statement carried by state media said on Tuesday.
“During our time in the organisation, we made significant contributions and even greater sacrifices for the benefit of all,” it added. “However, the time has come to focus our efforts on what our national interest dictates.”
The loss of the UAE, a longstanding OPEC member, could create disarray and weaken the oil cartel, which has usually sought to show a united front despite internal disagreements over a range of issues from geopolitics to production quotas.
UAE Energy Minister Suhail Mohamed al-Mazrouei said the decision was taken after a careful look at the regional power’s energy strategies.
“This is a policy decision. It has been done after a careful look at current and future policies related to the level of production,” the minister said.
OPEC’s Gulf producers have already been struggling to ship exports through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow chokepoint between Iran and Oman through which a fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas supplies normally pass, because of threats and attacks against vessels during the war.
The UAE had been a member of OPEC first through its emirate of Abu Dhabi in 1967 and later when it became its own country in 1971.
The oil cartel, based in Vienna, has seen some of its market power wane as the US has increased its production of crude oil in recent years.
Additionally, the UAE and Saudi Arabia have increasingly competed over economic issues and regional politics, particularly in the Red Sea area.
The two countries had joined a coalition to fight against Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis in 2015. However, that coalition broke down into recriminations in late December when Saudi Arabia bombed what it described as a weapons shipment bound for Yemeni separatists backed by the UAE.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc bested four price decliners on the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange on Monday, April 27. The alternative stock market opened the week bullish during the session with a 0.03 per cent uptick.
According to data, the security depository company added N2.61 to its share price to close at N76.26 per unit compared with the preceding session’s N78.87 per unit.
As a result, the market capitalisation of the platform increased by N820 million to N2.425 trillion from N2.424 trillion, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) gained 1.38 points to finish at 4,053.97 points compared with the 4,052.58 points it ended last Friday.
The four price losers were led by NASD Plc, which slumped by N3.80 to sell at N34.70 per share versus N38.50 per share. FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc fell by N1.45 to N98.10 per unit from N99.55 per unit, Food Concepts Plc slid by 27 Kobo to N2.43 per share from N2.70 per share, and Geo-Fluids Plc dipped by 9 Kobo to N2.91 per unit from N3.00 per unit.
The value of securities transacted by market participants went down by 82.0 per cent to N7.4 million from N41.3 million units, the volume of securities declined by 28.5 per cent to 319,831 units from 447,403 units, and the number of deals dropped by 34.1 per cent to 29 deals from 44 deals.
Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc was the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, followed by CSCS Plc with 59.6 million units sold for N4.0 billion, and Okitipupa Plc with 27.8 million units exchanged for N1.9 billion.
Also, GNI Plc was the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units valued at N8.4 billion, followed by Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units traded for N415.7 million, and Infrastructure Guarantee Credit Plc with a turnover of 400 million units worth N1.2 billion.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The first trading day of the week in the currency market was bearish for the Naira in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Monday, April 27.
Yesterday, it lost N5.80 or 0.43 per cent against the United States Dollar to trade at N1,364.24/$1, in contrast to the N1,358.44/$1 it was traded last Friday.
In the same vein, the Nigerian currency depreciated against the Pound Sterling in the official market by N13.70 to close at N1,847.72/£1 versus the preceding session’s N1,834.02/£1, and slumped against the Euro by N11.56 to sell at N1,602.29/€1 versus N1,590.73/€1.
Also, the Nigerian Naira tumbled against the greenback during the trading day by N5 to quote at N1,385/$1 compared with the previous rate of N1,380/$1, and at the GTBank FX desk, it traded flat at N1,370/$1.
The poor performance of the domestic currency could be attributed to liquidity shortage at the official currency market on Monday, which came amid surging demand for international payments. At $76.50 million, interbank liquidity printed higher across 79 deals, up from the $43.572 million reported on Friday.
Nigeria’s gross external reserves declined to $48.45 billion amid a month-long decline in inflows, amid uncertainties in the global commodity market. The depletion of foreign reserves could be partly attributed to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s intervention in the FX market.
The market remains perturbed by persistent concerns over liquidity constraints, policy transparency, and weakening confidence in Nigeria’s FX market, while boosters, including oil prices, continue to look rocky due to stalled discussions and unclear ceasefire negotiations between the US and Iran.
A look at the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin (BTC) has been rejected near $79,000 three times in eight sessions, leaving the level as the de facto ceiling of its current trading range even as major cryptocurrencies trade lower over the past day. It lost 0.9 per cent to sell at $77,003.61.
Analysts say that upcoming US Federal Reserve policy decisions and top tech firms’ earnings this week could provide the catalyst to push bitcoin decisively above $80,000.
The market also continued to weigh Iran’s interim deal proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which failed to advance over the weekend. The White House said US officials were discussing the latest Iranian proposal but maintained “red lines” on any deal to end the eight-week war.
Solana (SOL) dropped 1.8 per cent to $84.25, Ripple (XRP) went down by 1.6 per cent to $1.39, Ethereum (ETH) depreciated by 1.3 per cent to $2,290.00, Binance Coin (BNB) declined by 0.5 per cent to $625.18, and Cardano (ADA) fell by 0.2 per cent to $0.2480.
However, Dogecoin (DOGE) rose by 2.0 per cent to $0.1002, and TRON (TRX) appreciated by 0.2 per cent to $0.3242, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 apiece.
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