Economy
Nigeria to Lose Africa’s Largest Economy Status, Drop to Fourth—IMF
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria is likely to lose its status as Africa’s largest economy and drop to fourth place this year after a series of Naira devaluations, International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast show.
According to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook as reported by Bloomberg, Nigeria’s estimated gross domestic product stands at $253 billion based on current prices this year.
This means Nigeria is behind North African powerhouses Algeria (3rd) at $267 billion, Egypt at $348 billion (2nd), and South Africa at $373 billion (1st).
The report added that South Africa would remain the continent’s largest economy until Egypt reclaims the mantle in 2027. Nigeria however is expected to remain in fourth place for years to come, the data released this week shows.
Nigeria has been battling economic challenges since President Bola Tinubu announced significant policy reforms including the end of the subsidy regime and the devaluation of the Naira. Despite a recent rebound, the currency is still 50 per cent weaker against the greenback than it was before taking office after two currency devaluations.
Egypt, one of the emerging world’s most-indebted countries and the IMF’s second-biggest borrower after Argentina, has also allowed its currency to float, triggering an almost 40 per cent plunge in the pound’s value against the dollar last month to attract investment.
Unlike Nigeria’s Naira and Egypt’s Pound, the value of South Africa’s Rand has long been set in the financial markets and it has lost about 4 per cent of its value against the dollar this year. Its economy is expected to benefit from improvements to its energy supply and plans to tackle logistic bottlenecks.
The lender reviewed upwards Nigeria’s economic growth forecast for 2024 from three per cent to 3.3 per cent. However, for 2025, the IMF reduced Nigeria’s economic growth forecast to 3.0 per cent, a slight decrease from the 3.1 per cent projected earlier in January.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Seplat Energy Plc has completed the conversion of its operated onshore oil and gas assets to the fiscal regime of Nigeria’s Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), marking a major regulatory milestone for the company.
In a statement issued on Tuesday, the dual-listed Nigerian energy firm said its subsidiaries, Seplat West Limited and Seplat East Onshore Limited, finalised the conversion from the former Petroleum Profits Tax framework to the PIA regime following the fulfilment of all technical and regulatory requirements.
The PIA, signed into law in August 2021, was introduced to modernise governance, improve transparency, attract investment, and make Nigeria’s petroleum fiscal framework more competitive globally.
The conversion covers assets previously held under Oil Mining Leases (OMLs) 4, 38, 41 and 53. During the first nine months of 2025, these assets recorded an average working interest production of 42,591 barrels of oil equivalent per day, accounting for approximately 31 per cent of Seplat’s total output.
According to the company listed on both the Nigerian Exchange Limited and the London Stock Exchange, the PIA framework is expected to support increased investment, production growth and improved operational efficiency. The anticipated impact of the conversion had already been factored into Seplat’s medium-term guidance presented at its Capital Markets Day in September 2025.
Seplat noted that it executed Conversion Contracts with its joint venture partners in February 2023 and has since worked closely with the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) to complete the process. New Petroleum Mining Lease (PML) and Petroleum Prospecting Licence (PPL) numbers have now been issued, with PIA-based operations expected to commence from January 1, 2026, subject to regulatory guidance.
Commenting on the development, Chief Executive Officer Roger Brown said the successful conversion reflects the company’s commitment to regulatory compliance and value creation.
“Conversion to the PIA fiscal regime has been an important focus for Seplat, and we are delighted to have delivered, alongside our respective joint venture partners, the conversion of our onshore operated assets within the timeline outlined at our recent Capital Markets Day,” Mr Brown said.
He added that the transition positions the company for improved profitability and stronger cash flow margins in its onshore business.
Seplat also disclosed that it is continuing efforts to convert its offshore assets to the PIA regime, with a target completion date of 2027.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange rose by 0.16 per cent on Monday, December 22 as investors showed hunger for unlisted stocks.
Trading data showed that the volume of securities traded at the session surged by 532.9 per cent to 12.6 million units from the previous 1.9 million units, as the value of transactions jumped by 64.3 per cent to N713.6 million from N80.3 million, though the number of deals moderated by 13.5 per cent to 32 deals from the 37 deals recorded in the previous trading session.
Infrastructure Credit Guarantee Company (InfraCredit) Plc ended the day as the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 5.8 billion units sold for N16.4 billion, followed by Okitipupa Plc with 178.9 million units worth N9.5 billion, and MRS Oil Plc with 36.1 million units transacted for N4.9 billion.
InfraCredit Plc also finished the trading day as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 5.8 billion units traded for N16.4 billion, trailed by Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc with the sale of 1.2 billion units for N420.7 million, and Impresit Bakolori Plc with a turnover of 537.0 million units valued at N524.9 million.
The unlisted securities market printed a price loser, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc, which dropped 20 Kobo to sell at N53.80 per share versus last Friday’s closing price of N54.00 per share.
However, the loss was offset by the trio of NASD Plc, Golden Capital Plc, and UBN Property Plc.
NASD Plc gained N5.00 to close at N60.00 per unit versus N55.00 per unit, Golden Capital Plc appreciated by 77 Kobo to N8.45 per share from N7.68 per share, and UBN Property Plc improved by 22 Kobo to N2.43 per unit from N2.21 per unit.
As a result, the market capitalisation increased by N3.38 billion to N2.125 billion from N2.121 trillion, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) grew by 5.65 per cent to 3,552.06 points from 3,546.41 points.
By Dipo Olowookere
The bulls remained on the floor of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited on Monday, rallying by 0.26 per cent at the close of transactions.
This was buoyed by the gains recorded by 34 equities on Nigeria’s stock exchange, which outweighed the losses posted by 20 equities, indicating a positive market breadth index and strong investor sentiment.
Aluminium Extrusion gained 9.72 per cent to quote at N13.55, International Energy Insurance improved by 9.69 per cent to N2.49, Mecure Industries rose by 9.64 per cent to N60.30, Royal Exchange expanded by 9.60 per cent to N1.94, and Austin Laz grew by 9.50 per cent to N2.65.
On the flip side, Custodian Investment depleted by 10.00 per cent to N35.10, ABC Transport crashed by 10.00 per cent to N3.15, Prestige Assurance weakened by 7.41 per cent to N1.50, and Guinea Insurance slipped by 7.38 per cent to N1.13.
During the session, investors traded 451.5 million shares worth N13.0 billion in 33,327 deals compared with the 1.5 billion shares valued at N21.8 billion transacted in 25,667 deals in the preceding session, showing spike in the number of deals by 29.84 per cent, and a decline in the trading volume and value by 69.90 per cent and 40.37 per cent apiece.
The first trading session of the Christmas week had Tantalizers as the most active with 50.2 million units sold for N127.5 million, First Holdco transacted 32.6 million units worth N1.5 billion, Access Holdings exchanged 27.3 million units valued at N562.3 million, Custodian Investment traded 22.1 million units for N857.8 million, and Chams transacted 21.3 million units valued at N71.1 million.
When the closing gong was struck at 2:30 pm to end trading activities, the All-Share Index (ASI) was up by 401.69 points to 152,459.07 points from 152,057.38 points and the market capitalisation went up by N256 billion to N97.193 trillion from N96.937 trillion.
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