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Nigeria to Witness Economic Crisis, High Fiscal Deficits—Fitch

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Nigeria fiscal deficits

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria’s decision to take off 417,000 barrels per day from its crude oil production quota will lead to deeper economic contraction and higher fiscal deficits, says Fitch Ratings.

The rating agency also added that the decision will further compound pressures on the country’s external finances resulting from the slump in oil prices, the nation’s main source of foreign earnings.

In a statement released on Monday, the credit rating company noted that Nigeria’s adherence to oil production cuts under the agreement signed in April by members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies (OPEC+) will affect growth and external finances this year.

“We assume that Nigeria will comply fully with the production caps under the OPEC+ agreement, and have reduced our forecast oil output to 1.88 million barrels per day (mbpd, including condensates) in 2020 and 1.87 mbpd in 2021, compared with our earlier forecast of 2.1 mbpd for both years,” it said.

The agency also added that it had adjusted Nigeria’s gross domestic product forecast for the year, expecting a slump of 3 percent which should recover in 2021.

“We have adjusted our GDP forecasts, and now expect Nigeria’s economy to contract by 3 percent in 2020, before a recovery to 3 percent growth in 2021,” it stated.

Fitch said that it expects Nigeria’s increased recourse to concessional multilateral loans to ease near-term liquidity pressures, but the risk of a disruptive macroeconomic adjustment will persist.

Nigeria had requested for loans from the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the African Development Bank amounting to $5.4 billion.

It said that despite the OPEC+ deal, its oil price forecasts remain unchanged, at $35 per barrel for Brent on average in 2020 and projected a $45 per barrel increase in 2021.

Fitch said that Nigeria’s foreign-currency reserves had dropped by $5 billion over the first four months of the year despite only limited depreciation in the Naira’s key exchange rates.

It said, “This reflects moves by the CBN to tighten foreign-currency access. This has contained capital outflows temporarily, although the build-up of pent-up foreign-currency demand may increase the risk of a disruptive future exchange-rate adjustment.

“We expect outflows to materialise later in the year, which, alongside a significant current-account deficit and continued CBN resistance to overhauling the exchange-rate framework, will drive a fall in international reserves from $38.6 billion at end-2019 to $23.3 billion at end-2020.”

It further said the contraction in exports and remittance inflows means the current account will remain in deficit, despite a sharp drop in imports.

“We project the current account, which had been in surplus for much of the last 20 years, to record a deficit equivalent to 3.8 percent of GDP in 2020 and 2.5 percent in 2021.

“External liquidity pressures will be aggravated by outflows of foreign portfolio investment.” It stated.

Fitch highlighted an intensification of external liquidity pressures as a negative rating sensitivity when it downgraded Nigeria’s sovereign rating in April, to ‘B’ with a Negative Outlook from ‘B+’ with a Negative Outlook.

Nevertheless, greater recourse to multilateral borrowing will help to ease the strain Nigeria faces on this front which according to Fitch, if secured, would cover around 21 percent of the general government deficit in 2020.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

Geo-Fluids Seeks Approval to Raise Share Capital to N25bn

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Geo-Fluids

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

One of the players in the hydrocarbon business in Nigeria, Geo-Fluids Plc, which trades its securities on the NASD OTC Securities Exchange, is planning to restructure its share capital with an increased of about 1,090 per cent.

Next Monday, the company will hold its Annual General Meeting (AGM) and one of the resolutions to be tabled to shareholders by the board is an authorisation for raising the share capital from N2.1 billion to N25.0 billion.

This is to be achieved by creating an additional 45,742,332,488 ordinary shares of 50 kobo each, each ranking pari passu in all respects with the existing ordinary shares of the firm.

Funds from this action would be used to expand the business scope to include hydrocarbons, mining, and natural resource development.

“That the share capital of the company be and is hereby increased from N2,128,833,756 to N25,000,000,000 ordinary shares of 50 kobo each, each ranking pari passu in all respects with the existing ordinary shares of the company,” a part of the resolutions read.

In addition, Geo-Fluids wants approval, “To undertake the business of bitumen production and processing in all its forms, including but not limited to the exploration, prospecting, drilling, extraction, refining, treatment, blending, storage, packaging, distribution, marketing, importation, exportation, shipping, transportation, trading, and general supply of bitumen, its derivatives, by-products, and ancillary materials; and to carry on all other related or incidental undertakings, services, or operations that may be considered advantageous, beneficial, or necessary for the advancement, expansion, or diversification of the bitumen industry.”

Also, it wants the authority of shareholders, “To engage in the acquisition, development, and management of mining assets and concessions for the purpose of exploring, extracting, processing, and producing hydrocarbons, oil and gas, minerals, and other natural resources; and to develop, mine, and process coal, industrial minerals, and other raw materials required for industrial, commercial, energy, or infrastructural purposes, together with all related activities necessary to ensure the effective exploitation, utilisation, and commercialisation of such resources.”

Further, it wants, “To operate and participate in all segments of the oil and gas value chain, including but not limited to the exploration, prospecting, drilling, extraction, refining, processing, storage, blending, supply, marketing, distribution, importation, exportation, transportation, shipping, and trading of crude oil, refined petroleum products, petrochemicals, liquefied natural gas, compressed natural gas, and other related hydrocarbons and derivatives; and to establish, own, operate, or participate in facilities, ventures, or partnerships that advance the energy and petroleum sector.”

At the forthcoming meeting, the organisation wants its name changed from Geo-Fluids Plc to The Geo-Fluids Group Plc.

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Economy

PENGASSAN Kicks Against Full Privatisation of Refineries

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NNPC Port Harcourt refinery petrol

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) has warned against the full privatisation of the country’s government-owned refineries.

Recall that the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) is putting in place mechanisms to sell the moribund refineries in Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna.

However, this has met fresh resistance, with the President of PENGASSAN, Mr Festus Osifo, saying selling a 100 per cent stake would mean the government losing total control of the refineries, a situation he warned would be detrimental to Nigeria’s energy security.

Mr Osifo said the union was advocating the sale of about 51 per cent of the government’s stake while retaining 49 per cent, which he described as being more beneficial to Nigerians.

“PENGASSAN, even before the time of Comrade Peter Esele, had been advocating that government should sell its shares. The reason why we don’t want government to sell it 100 per cent to private investors is because of the issue bordering on energy security,” he said on Channels Television, late on Sunday.

“So, what we have advocated is what I have said earlier. If government sells 51 per cent stake in the refinery, what is going to happen? They will lose control, so that is actually selling. But for the benefit of Nigerians, retain 49 per cent of it.“

The PENGASSAN leader maintained that if the government had heeded the union’s advice in the past, the oil industry would be in a better state than it is today.

He addressed  concerns in some quarters over whether investors would be willing to buy stakes in government-owned refineries, insisting that there are investors who would be interested.

“Yes, there are investors who surely will be willing to buy a stake in the refinery because our population in Nigeria is quite huge, and those refineries, when well maintained without political pressures and political interference, will work,” he said.

However, Mr Osifo warned that even if the government decides to sell a 51 per cent stake, it must ensure that a complete valuation is carried out to avoid selling the refineries cheaply.

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Economy

SEC Gives Capital Market Operators Deadline to Renew Registration

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Capital Market Institute

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

Capital market operators have been given a deadline by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for the renewal of their registration.

A statement from the regulator said CMOs have till Saturday, January 31, 2026, to renew their registration, and to make the process seamless, an electronic receipt and processing of applications would commence in the first quarter of 2026.

“These initiatives reflect our commitment to leveraging technology for faster, more transparent, and efficient regulatory processes.

“The commission is taking deliberate steps to make regulatory processes faster, more transparent, and technology-driven. We are investing in automation, database-supervision, and secure infrastructure to improve how we interact with the market,” the Director General of SEC, Mr Emomotimi Agama, was quoted as saying in the statement during an interview in Abuja over the weekend.

He noted that through the digital transformation portal, the organisation has automated registration and licensing end-to-end as operators can now submit applications, upload documents, and track approvals online, cutting down manual processing time and reducing the need for physical visits.

According to him, the agency has also rolled out the Commercial Paper issuance module, which allows operators to file documents, monitor progress, and receive approvals electronically while feedback from early users shows a clear improvement in turnaround time.

“Work is ongoing to automate quarterly and annual returns submissions, with structured templates and system checks to ensure accuracy. A returns analytics dashboard is also in development to support risk based supervision and exception reporting.

“To back these changes, we have started upgrading our IT infrastructure, servers, storage, networks, and security layers, to boost speed and reliability.

“Selective cloud migration is underway for platforms that need scalability and external access, while core internal systems remain on premisev5p for now as we assess security and cost implications.

“At the same time, we are strengthening data integrity and cybersecurity with vulnerability assessments and planned penetration testing once automation and migration phases are stable.

“These efforts show our commitment to building a modern, resilient regulatory environment that supports efficiency, investor confidence, and market stability,” he stated.

Mr Agama affirmed that the nation’s capital market was clearly on a path toward digital transformation adding that there is an urgent need for regulatory clarity on advanced technologies, targeted support for smaller firms, and capacity-building initiatives.

“A phased and proportionate approach to regulating emerging technologies such as AI is essential, complemented by internal readiness through supervisory technology tools.

“Furthermore, investor education, particularly among younger demographics, will be critical to future-proof participation and drive fintech adoption.

“Innovation is vital, but it must be accompanied by responsibility. As operators embrace automation, artificial intelligence, and data-driven tools, they bear a duty to ensure ethical, secure, and compliant deployment. Safeguarding investor data, preventing market abuse, and maintaining operational resilience are non-negotiable,” he declared.

The SEC DG said that ultimately, responsible technology adoption is about building trust, the cornerstone of our markets saying that trust thrives on fairness, transparency, accountability, and regulatory compliance.

He, therefore, urged operators to uphold these principles adding that it will not only protect investors and systemic stability but also strengthen the long-term credibility and competitiveness of the Nigerian capital market.

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