Economy
Nigeria Week Ahead: Naira & US Inflation in Focus
By Lukman Otunuga
The week kicked off on a positive note as optimism over the reopening of China’s economy and reports that the Biden administration may lift some Trump-era China tariffs boosted sentiment.
In Nigeria, the All-Share Index flashed green – lifted by gains in Conoil Plc, Pharma-Deko & Learn Africa among others. Despite the relatively quiet economic calendar in Nigeria, this could be another eventful week for the local markets due to external forces.
Recapping last week, OPEC+ agreed to hike output in July and August by a larger-than-expected amount as geopolitical tensions roiled global energy markets. The cartel decided to increase production by 648,000 barrels per day in both July and August.
Given how oil prices remain at multi-year highs and demand is expected to increase due to the US and European summer driving season, this development is good news for oil producers.
However, according to data from Bloomberg – Nigeria is pumping roughly 1.3 to 1.5 mbpd. This is below the new target of 1.772 Mbps for June set by OPEC+ and well under the maximum crude production capacity of 2.5 mbpd.
In the United Kingdom, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson was flung into the spotlight after enough Conservative MPs triggered a vote of no-confidence in his leadership. The British pound immediately hijacked our attention following this development as investors were already concerned over the UK’s worsening economic outlook and post-Brexit tensions.
With political uncertainty adding to the toxic mix, one would have expected the pound to collapse like a house of cards – buckling under the strain of negative themes. So far, this news has not had a significant impact on risk appetite with sterling appreciating against the dollar and other G10 currencies! In a twist, the Prime Minister survived the confidence vote yesterday.
It may be worth keeping an eye on the US inflation report on Friday which is expected to show consumer prices unchanged at 8.3% in May, matching the figure seen in April. If the report meets or falls below expectations, this may suggest that US inflation may have peaked. Such a development could fuel speculation around the Fed taking a step back from its ultra-aggressive stance – weakening the dollar. A weaker greenback could provide emerging market currencies some breathing room.
Speaking of currencies, the Naira opened at N416 against the dollar on Monday after closing around N415.50 on Sunday. On the parallel exchange, the Naira traded at around N605 against the dollar. With inflationary pressures making a return and prices expected to rise ahead of the general elections in 2023, this could translate to Naira’s weakness.
Lukman Otunuga is a Senior Research Analyst at FXTM
By Adedapo Adesanya
The United States has lamented Nigeria’s import ban on 25 different products, particularly in agriculture, pharmaceuticals, beverages, and consumer goods, as it rationalised the recent decision to slap a 14 per cent retaliatory tariff.
The United States Trade Representative, in a statement on Monday posted on its X platform, said Nigeria’s restrictions on items like beef, pork, poultry, fruit juices, medicaments, and spirits limit US market access and reduce export opportunities.
“These policies create significant trade barriers that lead to lost revenue for US businesses looking to expand in the Nigerian market,” it wrote.
Last week, the administration of President Donald Trump imposed various tariffs ranging between 10 per cent and 65 per cent on different countries across the world, including Nigeria which got a 14 per cent tariff on its exports to the US.
In response, the Nigerian Minister of Trade, Industry, and Investment, Mrs Jumoke Oduwole, said Nigeria would take a pragmatic approach and will boost non-oil exports to deal with the drawbacks from the US move.
She also said Nigeria will be willing to negotiate and will be speaking with the World Trade Organisation (WTO) on the way forward.
On his part, the Minister of Finance, Mr Wale Edun, said that the Economic Management Team (EMT) would meet to assess the likely impact of the 14 per cent tariff on goods exported from Nigeria to the US.
He said the EMT will afterwards, make recommendations to cushion its impact on the nation’s economy.
The Minister also said the federal government will boost non-revenue as a means of cushioning the adverse effects to trade tariffs imposed on countries by President Trump.
Mr Edun also assured that while the adverse effect on Nigeria will be through an oil price plunge, the government is intensifying efforts to ramp up oil production and boost non-oil revenues.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria and Japan have launched a strategic venture capital initiative that will channel Naira-denominated investments into high-growth startups, shielding them from currency risks while unlocking access to long-term concessional financing.
The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Wale Edun, met with officials from the Nigeria Sovereign Investment Authority (NSIA) and the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) to finalise the framework of the fund, which has now received formal approval from the Japanese government.
Speaking on the development, Mr Edun welcomed the development, calling it a timely response to Nigeria’s youthful demography.
He said this fund provides critical financial backing across the capital structure—from equity to debt—and is aligned with President Bola Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda for inclusive economic growth, he stated.
On his part, NSIA CEO, Mr Aminu Umar-Sadiq confirmed that the initiative satisfies two key conditions set by the Minister: mitigating foreign exchange volatility by investing in Naira and securing first-loss or grant capital to de-risk private investment.
“With JICA’s support, this is not just a proposed solution—it’s a fully approved, ready-to-launch initiative,” Mr Umar-Sadiq said.
By combining international concessional financing with domestic currency stability, the fund marks a new model for venture capital in Africa, aimed squarely at empowering the next generation of Nigerian innovators.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Minister of Finance, Mr Wale Edun, has said the country’s Economic Management Team (EMT) would meet to assess the likely impact of the 14 per cent tariff on goods exported from Nigeria to the United States.
Mr Edun made the disclosure while speaking at an event organised by the Ministry of Finance Incorporated (MOFI) on Monday.
The Trump administration recently imposed various tariffs ranging between 10 per cent and 65 per cent on different countries across the world, including Nigeria which got a 14 per cent tariff on its exports to the United States.
He said the EMT will afterwards make recommendations to cushion its impact on the nation’s economy, noting that the federal government will boost non-revenue as a means of cushioning the adverse effects to trade tariffs imposed on countries by President Trump.
Mr Edun stated that while the adverse effect on Nigeria will result in an oil price plunge, the government is intensifying efforts to ramp up oil production and boost non-oil revenues.
The Finance Minister noted that the US, which is at the centre of the tariff war had on April 2, announced that it would exempt mineral exports, including oil.
“Therefore, it’s the price effect, the oil price effect that may affect Nigeria. And it is the job and responsibility of the economic management team of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, amongst others, to look at the various scenarios that might play out.
“There’s global uncertainty at a huge level, so nobody knows exactly what will happen- the announcement that has been made. We’re not sure what will be delayed, what will be reversed, or what will be implemented.
“So, it is not an announcement that the budget is being reviewed. It’s an announcement that it is our responsibility to look at the various scenarios and options and advise government accordingly.”
Mr Edun also highlighted plans to look at budget adjustment, expenditure prioritisation as well as innovative non-debt financing strategies.
According to him, Nigeria had recorded a trade surplus in the last three years (2022-2024) with the US.
“Nigeria-US Trade has been in surplus in the last 3 years (2022-2024). Nigeria’s exports to the US were N1.8 trillion, N2.6 trillion and N5.5 trillion in 2022-2024, respectively.
“Fortunately, oil and mineral exports accounted for 92 per cent. Implying oil and minerals exports amounted to N5.08 trillion in value while non-oil was just N0.44 trillion.
“Consequently, the tariff effect on exports is negligible if we sustain our oil and minerals export volume.
“The adverse effect on Nigeria will be through oil price plunge. We are intensifying efforts to ramp up crude oil production to curtail any price effect
“We are also focusing on non-oil revenue mobilisation by FIRS and Customs, budget adjustment and prioritisation where possible, and also and innovative non-debt financing strategies,” the Minister said.
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