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Nigeria Week Ahead: Naira & US Inflation in Focus

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US inflation

By Lukman Otunuga

The week kicked off on a positive note as optimism over the reopening of China’s economy and reports that the Biden administration may lift some Trump-era China tariffs boosted sentiment.

In Nigeria, the All-Share Index flashed green – lifted by gains in Conoil Plc, Pharma-Deko & Learn Africa among others. Despite the relatively quiet economic calendar in Nigeria, this could be another eventful week for the local markets due to external forces.

Recapping last week, OPEC+ agreed to hike output in July and August by a larger-than-expected amount as geopolitical tensions roiled global energy markets. The cartel decided to increase production by 648,000 barrels per day in both July and August.

Given how oil prices remain at multi-year highs and demand is expected to increase due to the US and European summer driving season, this development is good news for oil producers.

However, according to data from Bloomberg – Nigeria is pumping roughly 1.3 to 1.5 mbpd. This is below the new target of 1.772 Mbps for June set by OPEC+ and well under the maximum crude production capacity of 2.5 mbpd.

In the United Kingdom, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson was flung into the spotlight after enough Conservative MPs triggered a vote of no-confidence in his leadership. The British pound immediately hijacked our attention following this development as investors were already concerned over the UK’s worsening economic outlook and post-Brexit tensions.

With political uncertainty adding to the toxic mix, one would have expected the pound to collapse like a house of cards – buckling under the strain of negative themes. So far, this news has not had a significant impact on risk appetite with sterling appreciating against the dollar and other G10 currencies! In a twist, the Prime Minister survived the confidence vote yesterday.

It may be worth keeping an eye on the US inflation report on Friday which is expected to show consumer prices unchanged at 8.3% in May, matching the figure seen in April. If the report meets or falls below expectations, this may suggest that US inflation may have peaked. Such a development could fuel speculation around the Fed taking a step back from its ultra-aggressive stance – weakening the dollar. A weaker greenback could provide emerging market currencies some breathing room.

Speaking of currencies, the Naira opened at N416 against the dollar on Monday after closing around N415.50 on Sunday. On the parallel exchange, the Naira traded at around N605 against the dollar. With inflationary pressures making a return and prices expected to rise ahead of the general elections in 2023, this could translate to Naira’s weakness.

Lukman Otunuga is a Senior Research Analyst at FXTM

Economy

NGX Spurs Capital Market Innovation to Attract Investors

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capital market innovation

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited has disclosed that the NGX Made of Africa Awards will spur the next phase of capital market innovation to attract more investors into the space.

On Tuesday, December 6, 2022, the exchange held the award ceremony in Lagos to recognise innovativeness and compliance with best practices in the Nigerian capital market for the calendar year.

The event spotlighted excellence, creativity and integrity as NGX sought to amplify the activities of its stakeholders to further reinforce the values that attract investors to the market and grow the African economy.

Players in the capital market ranging from issuers, securities dealers, issuing houses, fund managers, trustees, legal firms and stakeholders, including the media and content creators were rewarded for their contributions to the development of the market.

In his opening remarks, the Chairman of NGX, Mr Abubakar Balarabe Mahmoud, explained that the goal of the exchange with the awards is to further catalyse innovation, corporate performance, shareholder return, compliance to rules and regulation in driving investor confidence and aiding regulatory oversight on the market.

“It is essential that we continue to collaborate, encourage and incentivise our partners through initiatives like the NGX Made of Africa Awards. At NGX, relationships, partnerships, collaboration and inclusivity continue to drive our actions in the quest to spotlight The Stock Africa is Made Of,” he said.

On his part, the chief executive of the bourse, Mr Temi Popoola, said the event had been reviewed to reflect the dynamism of the capital market and the transformation it had witnessed so far.

“We are delighted to be extending the reach of these Awards to further highlight our commitment to inclusivity, innovation and integrity whilst highlighting NGX as the platform of choice to raise capital,” he stated.

In his goodwill message, the Governor of Edo State, Mr Godwin Obaseki, highlighted the importance of the capital market to the economy, calling together all stakeholders to move Nigeria towards a more productive economy and less import-dependent.

He also noted that NGX has continued to stand out as a market infrastructure of choice for public and private sector capital formation.

Also, the Director-General of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Mr Lamido Yuguda, represented by the Executive Commissioner, Corporate Services, Mr Ibrahim Boyi, said that the commission had championed innovative measures that have improved the market, including dematerialisation, direct cash settlement and e-dividend.

“The long-term sustainability in the market requires innovation of which the fundamental outcome was a maximum return on investment, reduction in the cost of doing business and increased production,” he said.

Speaking on the African capital market potentials, Mr Aigboje Aig-Imokuede, the Chairman of Coronation Capital and a former President of the Council of the Nigerian Stock Exchange pre-demutualisation, said that after a long haul of liquidity in global markets, central banks across the globe are implementing hawkish monetary policies to revive price stability and tame inflationary pressures.

He noted that the capital market in this period of restrained global growth had an important role to play in stimulating economic growth and development through the efficient allocation of resources.

Business Post reports that a few of the awardees were Dangote Cement as Best Issuer in Terms of Number of Fixed Income Listings; Lafarge Africa as Leader in Sustainability Reporting; Pilot Securities Limited as Most Compliant Trading License Holder; Aluko and Oyebode as Best Solicitor in terms of Value of Deals; and Coronation Securities Limited as Best Sponsoring Trading License Holder of the Year. Lagos State won the State with the Largest Sub-national Debt Instrument; MTN Nigeria Communications won the Most Compliant Listed Company; CardinalStone Securities won the Best Trading License Holder Across Asset Classes; BUA Foods was awarded the Listing of the Year; and Capital Markets Correspondent Association (CAMCAN) won Capital Market Reportage.

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Economy

Crude Oil Prices Fall To Lowest Levels in 10 Months

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The prices of the crude oil grades in the market fell to their lowest levels this year on Wednesday, losing all of the gains they had accumulated since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Brent futures fell by $2.18 or 2.8 per cent to trade at $77.17 a barrel, as the United States West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures depreciated by $2.24 to $72.01 per barrel.

Oil surged to nearly $140 a barrel in March, close to an all-time record, following the launch of what Russia tagged a “special operation” in Ukraine a month earlier.

The market has been steadily declining recently as economists brace for weakened worldwide growth in part due to high energy costs.

The situation worsened on Wednesday with bigger-than-expected increases in US fuel inventories despite a drop in crude stocks.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an inventory decline of 5.2 million barrels for the week of December 2 compared with a sizeable draw of 12.6 million barrels estimated for the previous week, which sent prices higher at the time.

A day before the EIA released its report, the American Petroleum Institute estimated another weekly crude inventory draw for the week to December 2 at 6.43 million barrels.

Meanwhile, the EIA also reported an inventory build in fuel and another rise in middle distillate stocks for the week to December 2. Gasoline (petrol) inventories added 5.3 barrels in the week to December 2, with production averaging 9.1 million barrels daily, in contrast to a build of 2.8 million barrels for the previous week and a production rate of 9.4 million barrels daily.

Prices are also slipping further down as traders relax about the potential consequences of the G7 and EU price cap on Russian oil.

It appears they have assumed that it would not affect the availability of oil in any significant way and are selling crude.

Analysts also note that Russian oil is already trading close to the cap, so it shouldn’t make much of a difference in revenues, but it is worth remembering Russia has said it would not sell oil to countries that enforce the price cap, meaning the supply of Russian oil specifically might tighten for some importers.

Russia has also threatened to set a price floor for its oil in response to the G7 price cap, which may further complicate matters.

Support came as China, the world’s biggest crude importer, announced the most sweeping changes to its anti-COVID regime since the pandemic began. The country’s crude oil imports in November rose 12 per cent from a year earlier to their highest in 10 months, data showed.

Still, warnings from big US banks about a likely recession next year weighed on the value of the commodity.

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Economy

Nigerian Stocks Maintain Upward Trajectory Amid Weak Investor Sentiment

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weak investor sentiment

By Dipo Olowookere

The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited closed higher for the fourth consecutive trading day by 0.12 per cent on Wednesday amid a weak investor sentiment.

At the midweek session, 17 equities shed weight, more than the 12 equities that gained weight. It was observed that traders embarked on profit-taking, but the gains by stocks in the consumer goods sector, especially Nigerian Breweries and Honeywell Flour, left the bourse in the green territory at the close of transactions.

Consequently, the All-Share Index (ASI) rose by 59.80 points to 48,426.49 points from 48,366.69 points, while the market capitalisation, while the market capitalisation jumped by N33 billion to N26.377 trillion from N26.344 trillion.

Yesterday, the consumer goods counter appreciated by 0.96 per cent, the industrial goods sector closed flat, while the insurance, banking and energy indices depreciated by 0.55 per cent, 0.17 per cent, and 0.08 per cent, respectively.

A total of 146.2 million stocks worth N3.4 billion exchanged hands in 2,810 deals on Wednesday compared with the 184.7 million stocks worth N3.6 billion traded in 3,189 deals on Tuesday, representing a decline in the trading volume, value and number of deals by 20.85 per cent, 5.56 per cent, and 11.88 per cent apiece.

FBN Holdings traded the highest number of stocks during the session, 59.3 million units, followed by Geregu, which sold 14.3 million units. Zenith Bank transacted 12.5 million stocks, Sterling Bank exchanged 7.0 million equities, and UBA traded 6.9 million shares.

The best-performing equity on Wednesday was Thomas Wyatt, which improved its share price by 10.00 per cent to close at 44 Kobo. Japaul gained 7.41 per cent to end at 29 Kobo, Honeywell Flour appreciated by 6.14 per cent to N2.42, May and Baker rose by 5.26 per cent to N4.00, and Nigerian Breweries grew by 4.62 per cent to N38.50.

The worst-performing stock yesterday was SCOA Nigeria, which dropped 9.38 per cent to sell for 87 Kobo. Unity Bank depreciated by 7.02 per cent to 53 Kobo, Cornerstone Insurance fell by 6.25 per cent to 45 Kobo, Courteville shrank by 6.00 per cent to 47 Kobo, and Chams lost 4.35 per cent to trade at 22 Kobo.

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