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Economy

Nigerian Economy Signals Turnaround

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By FSDH Research

A review of the latest Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) report that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) published for the month of July 2017 shows that the Nigerian economy is gathering more momentum for a turnaround. The PMI increased consistently between March 2017 and July 2017.

The PMI supports our view that the Nigerian economy may exit the current recession in Q3, 2017. The manufacturing and non-manufacturing activities increased in the month of July 2017 compared with the level of activities recorded in the month of June 2017.

The PMI report shows that the Composite Manufacturing Index (CMI) expanded for the fourth consecutive month in the year 2017 to attain the highest level since July 2014. The CMI accelerated to 54.1 points in July 2017 from 52.9 points in June 2017.

The Composite Non-Manufacturing Index (CNMI) also expanded to 54.4 points in July 2017 from 54.2 points in June 2017 to attain the highest level since December 2014. The month of June 2017 is the third consecutive month of increase in the CNMI.

A PMI below the 50 points level suggests a decline in business activity while a PMI higher than the 50 points level suggests an expansion. When the PMI is at the 50 point level, it means that the degree of business activity in the economy is unchanged.

We believe that manufacturing and non-manufacturing activities in the country have increased in the last few months largely because of the CBN’s strategy to increase the supply of foreign exchange. This strategy has improved businesses’ and consumers’ confidence in the economy.

The capital importation data from the CBN as at May 2017 shows that foreign investors have increased their investments in the Nigerian economy; thus increasing the supply of foreign exchange into the country.

The total capital imported into the Nigerian economy between January 2017 and May 2017 stood at $2.09 billion, an increase of 82.78 percent over the amount of $1.14 billion recorded in the corresponding period of 2016.

The implementation of the Investors’ and Exporters’ Foreign Exchange (I&E) window has attracted foreign investors to the economy.

About 57 percent of the total foreign capital inflows into the Nigerian economy between January and May 2017 was recorded in April 2017 and May 2017 following the commencement of the I&E window on April 24, 2017.

In addition to the foreign exchange inflows into Nigeria from foreign investors, the inflows of foreign exchange from the sale of crude oil have increased as a result of the increase in crude oil price and production.

The average price of crude oil between January 01 and August 02, 2017 stood at $51.83/barrel an increase of 25.88 percent over the average crude oil price of $41.18/barrel in the corresponding period of 2016.

In a related development, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) visited Nigeria between July 20 and 31, 2017 to discuss recent economic and financial developments, update macroeconomic projections, and review reform implementation.

The IMF identified the following major near-term vulnerabilities and risks: slow growth in 2017 at 0.8 percent; delays in policy implementation; possible reversal of favourable external market conditions; possible shortfalls in agricultural and oil production; and additional fiscal pressures.

The IMF made the following recommendations: fiscal consolidation through a sustainable increase in non-oil revenues to create space for infrastructure spending, social protection, and private sector credit; monetary policy that avoids direct financing of the government and is kept sufficiently tight; unified and market-based exchange rate; a rapid implementation of structural reforms and creation of an environment for a diversified private-sector led economy.

If the current efforts of the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) to drive tax revenue is sustained and institutions are strengthened to ensure that revenues are properly allocated to priority sectors, the Nigerian economy should rebound to the pre-crisis level within a short period of time.

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

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Economy

Naira Loses Against Dollar Official, Black Markets

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money supply naira

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Naira opened the new trading week on a negative note on Monday at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) and the black market.

At the parallel market, the Nigerian currency weakened against the US Dollar by N5 to sell for N1,380/$1 compared with the preceding session’s rate of N1,375/$1, and at the GTBank FX desk, it shed N1 to trade at N1,373/$1 versus N1,372/$1.

At the official market, it lost 63 Kobo or 0.05 per cent against the Dollar during the session to close at N1,362.84/$1, in contrast to last Friday’s value of N1,362.21/$1.

However, the Nigerian Naira gained N2.30 against the Pound Sterling at the spot market yesterday, quoting at N1,821.29/£1 compared with the previous rate of N1,823.59/£1, and improved against the Euro by 23 Kobo to settle at N1,574.35/€1 versus N1,574.58/€1.

Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) showed that interbank forex turnover increased to $92.248 million across 90 deals, from $73.565 million last Friday.

On the policy front, participants believed that the application of the fourth edition of the Foreign Exchange Manual of the central bank, which introduces updated guidelines for foreign exchange transactions and tightening compliance requirements for authorised dealers and market participants, will enhance market flexibility and ease previous restrictions.

Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market snapped from recent declines, jolted by Strategy’s purchase of 1,550 Bitcoin for approximately $101 million, increasing its total holdings to 845,256 BTC. The company raised $181 million through common stock sales, using the proceeds to fund the bitcoin purchase and increase its cash reserves to $1 billion, pushing the price of the coin higher by 3.2 per cent to $63,731.69.

Cardano (ADA) appreciated by 8.4 per cent to $0.1738, Ethereum (ETH) rose by 5.2 per cent to $1,711.54, Solana (SOL) expanded by 5.1 per cent to $67.82, and Ripple (XRP) improved by 4.9 per cent to $1.18.

Further, Dogecoin (DOGE) jumped by 4.3 per cent to $0.0873, Binance Coin (BNB) soared by 2.7 per cent to $609.50, and TRON (TRX) increased by 0.7 per cent to $0.3274, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $0.9997 and $0.9998, respectively.

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Economy

Economist Tasks FG to Explore Alternative Funding Sources

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Aliyu Ilias

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The federal government has been advised to consider exploring other funding sources to finance its budget deficits.

Speaking with Punch recently, the chief executive of CSA Advisory, Mr Aliyu Ilias, said the current appetite for borrowing by the government cannot be sustained because it elevates debt-servicing costs.

The economist suggested the sale of some public assets and the involvement of the private sector in infrastructure financing for economic growth.

According to him, running to the debt markets to raise funds for the government is not the best route to take, as the reliance on borrowing always leads to higher debt-servicing obligations.

“The more you borrow, the more you are also incurring more debt services,” he said, tasking the government to also capitalise on increased oil revenues stemming from ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

“The government can actually sell off some of their assets to raise more money. The government can also, if you look at the revenue we are getting from oil, it’s getting more, especially with this war. It’s another opportunity for us to actually not borrow again,” Mr Ilias submitted.

He also pointed to ongoing tax reforms as another avenue to improve government finances and narrow the fiscal gap.

“The government can also look at tax reform. The fact is that the government does not have money. The only chance for getting more money is to address the financial deficit,” he added.

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Economy

Crude Oil Gains Over $1 Despite Easing Iran-Israel Tensions

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Cawthorne crude oil

By Adedapo Adesanya

Crude oil was up by $1 on Monday as Iran and Israel said they had halted attacks on each other following an ‌appeal from US President Donald Trump.

Brent crude futures gained $1.16 or 1.3 per cent to trade at $94.25 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 76 cents or 0.8 per cent to $91.30 per barrel.

Iran’s military said Monday it halted attacks on Israel after the two countries exchanged their most intense strikes in months, further straining an already shaky ceasefire as well as the US-Israeli relationship. Iran, however, said it would resume strikes if Israel continued to hit Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Israel also halted attacks on Iran, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, stopping short of acknowledging a ceasefire that US President Donald Trump said the countries were aiming for.

President Trump said earlier that the US blockade, which was introduced in April, would remain in place “in full force” until a final peace agreement between the two warring nations is reached.

Prices gained more than 5 per cent earlier on Monday after renewed Israeli strikes ​on Iran and attacks on Lebanon had reduced hopes of an imminent end to the wider war.

Market analysts noted that because of the strikes, investors were concerned that flows through the Strait of Hormuz might remain restricted for longer. Roughly ​a fifth of the world’s daily supply of oil and liquefied natural gas passed through the waterway before US-Israeli airstrikes at the end of February ‌unleashed the ⁠latest escalation of the Middle Eastern conflict.

Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis said on Monday they would ban ships linked to Israel from the Red Sea after Israel renewed its military ​attacks on Iran, adding to concerns about global shipping and energy flows.

In the face of ​the supply crisis, a sub-group under the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) on ⁠Sunday agreed on its fourth oil output target increase in four months. The seven members decided to increase ​targets by 188,000 barrels per day from July, the same as the June hike, which was adjusted down from monthly increases of 206,000 barrels per day in May and April to take into account the exit of the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

On paper, the sub-group has increased its output quotas from April ⁠to June by almost 600,000 barrels per day, but in reality, the group’s production has collapsed due to export cuts by Gulf members, averaging 33.19 million ​barrels per day in April compared with 42.77 million barrels per day in February.

Saudi Arabia has cut its official selling prices for crude oil to Asia ​in July for a second month.

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