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Economy

Nigerian Stocks Grossly Undervalued at Current Prices—Olubiyi

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By Dipo Olowookere

An expert in capital market, Dr Timi Olubiyi, has said the current prices of stocks at the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) are “grossly undervalued.”

Mr Olubiyi made this disclosure in an opinion article he wrote and was published on Business Post on Sunday.

The chartered member of the Chartered Institute for Securities and Investment (CISI) and financial literacy specialist said most stocks on the exchange were far below their real worth and book value.

“Equities are grossly undervalued at current prices; most stocks are far below their real worth and book value.

“Also, the current valuations already offer opportunities to those who want to position for the long-term.

“Essentially, hedging against inflation is achievable with the current equity prices if held over in the long-term,” Mr Olubiyi said in the article.

He said in the first quarter of 2020, the local stock exchange closed in the red territory in terms of performance with a negative return of 20.65 percent in contrast to a negative return of 1.24 percent in the corresponding period of 2019.

In the period under consideration, the market capitalisation of the NSE, which represents the market value of all listed companies, lost about N2 trillion.

But in April 2020, when the lockdown imposed on Lagos, Abuja and Ogun State became fully effective, the market surprisingly appreciated by 8.08 percent month-on-month.

The All-Share Index (ASI), which opened the month at 21,300.47 points, closed at 23,021.01 points at the end of the month, while the market value increased by N896 billion to N11.997 trillion from the opening value of N11.101 trillion.

In May 2020, the market on month-on-month performance closed at 9.76 percent as against 8.08 percent recorded in April 2020.

Mr Olubiyi attributed the positive performance of the exchange to investors’ bargain hunting even though most of the trades were executed remotely.

At an event held few weeks ago, the Chief Executive Officer of the NSE, Mr Oscar Onyema, said during the lockdown, which was eased in early June, domestic investors took over the market after the exit of offshore traders, who used to dominate transactions.

But Mr Olubiyi, who is prolific investment coach and an entrepreneurship and small business management expert, said he foresees “a return of foreign investors when a bit of stability and flattening of the curve of the pandemic has been achieved globally particularly in Nigeria.”

However, he advised regulators and government “to improve policies and laws to promote foreign investors and inward foreign direct investments (FDIs) because it will eventually stimulate economic development.”

According to him, “The policy of ease of doing business in Nigeria can be upgraded to include foreign portfolio investment policy options.

“Furthermore, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)-incentives (tax-related) to considerably increase foreign participation in our capital market ecosystem needs to reflect in the post-COVID recovery policy.”

In the past days, especially in June, the market has not been able to replicate its astonishing performance when business activities were paused in the country due to the virus, which has infected over 20,000 persons in almost four months and claimed 518 lives since February 27, 2020, when Nigeria recorded its first case.

Dipo Olowookere is a journalist based in Nigeria that has passion for reporting business news stories. At his leisure time, he watches football and supports 3SC of Ibadan. Mr Olowookere can be reached via [email protected]

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Economy

Crude Deliveries Double to Dangote Refinery in Mix of Naira, Dollar Supply

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Crude oil deliveries from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery doubled in March, boosting prospects for improved fuel availability.

This was revealed by the chief executive of Dangote Industries Limited, Mr Aliko Dangote, on Tuesday, when he received the Deputy Secretary-General of the United Nations, Mrs Amina Mohammed, at the industrial complex in Ibeju-Lekki, Lagos.

While speaking on feedstock supply, Mr Dangote commended the NNPC for increasing crude deliveries to the refinery in March, noting that volumes rose to 10 cargoes—six supplied in Naira and four in Dollars—to support domestic fuel availability, according to a statement by the Refinery.

“Last month, they gave us six cargoes for Naira and four cargoes for Dollars,” he said.

Despite the improvement, Mr Dangote noted that the supply remains below the 19 cargoes required for optimal operations, with the refinery continuing to bridge the gap through imports from the United States and other African producers.

He also expressed concern over the unwillingness of international oil companies operating in Nigeria to sell to the refinery, stating that their preference for selling crude to traders forces it to repurchase at higher costs, with broader implications for the economy.

Mr Dangote added that the refinery is seeking increased access to domestically priced crude under local currency arrangements as part of efforts to moderate fuel costs and enhance long-term energy and food security across the continent.

On her part, Mrs Mohammed underscored the strategic importance of Dangote Industries Limited -particularly Dangote Fertiliser Limited—in addressing Africa’s mounting food security challenges, while calling for stronger global partnerships to scale its impact.

Mrs Mohammed said the United Nations would prioritise amplifying scalable solutions capable of mitigating the continent’s food crisis, describing Dangote’s integrated industrial model as a critical pathway.

“I think the UN’s job here is to amplify and to put visibility on the possibilities of mitigating a food security crisis, and this is one of them,” she said. “I hope that when we go back, we can continue to engage partners and countries that should collaborate with Dangote Industries.”

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Economy

SEC Okays 50% Hike in X-Alert Fee for Capital Market Transactions

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By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved a 50 per cent hike in the X-Alert service fee per transaction in the Nigerian capital market.

The X-Alert fee is a flat rate charged for sending real-time SMS/email notifications for transactions to investors from both buy and sell sides.

It was introduced by the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) to replace percentage-based charges, aimed at increasing transparency and reducing total transaction costs for investors.

Investors were earlier charged N4 per SMS, but the country’s apex capital market regulator has approved a 50 per cent increase in X-Alert service fee, meaning the new rate is N6 per SMS.

Business Post gathered from one of the players in the ecosystem that the effective date for the new price was Thursday, March 26, 2026.

“We wish to inform you of a revision to the X-Alert (SMS) service fee applicable to transactions executed on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX).

“Following approval by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the X-Alert fee has been reviewed upward from N4.00 to N6.00 per transaction,” the notice sighted by this newspaper read.

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Economy

World Bank Projects 4.2% Growth for Nigeria Amid Risks

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria’s economy is projected to remain resilient in the face of mounting global uncertainties, with the World Bank forecasting a 4.2 per cent growth rate in 2026.

However, the global lender has warned that rising fuel costs and persistent inflation, worsened by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, could undermine household incomes and slow poverty reduction.

Speaking in Abuja, the bank’s lead economist for Nigeria, Mr Fiseha Haile, noted that while the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict has pushed up prices, overall economic activity has remained largely intact.

“Overall business activity has been expanding over the past few ​months, suggesting the impact on growth has been relatively contained. But the shock is still ⁠being felt through higher inflation,” Mr Haile said.

According to him, business activity has continued to expand in recent months, indicating that the broader impact on growth has been “relatively contained,” even as inflationary pressures intensify.

Nigeria’s inflation rate, though significantly reduced from around 33 per cent in December 2024 to 15.06 per cent in February 2026, remains elevated compared to regional peers.

“Inflation is still elevated and under ‌increasing ⁠pressure, and that poses risks to incomes and poverty reduction,” Mr Haile said.

The renewed surge in fuel prices, reportedly rising by over 50 per cent during the Iran conflict, has had a ripple effect on transportation, food, and production costs, amplifying the cost-of-living crisis.

The World Bank urged Nigerian authorities to adopt prudent macroeconomic measures, including tightening monetary policy, avoiding blanket subsidies, and saving windfalls from higher oil prices to strengthen fiscal buffers.

It also recommended reconsidering restrictions on fuel imports as a potential tool to ease inflationary pressures.

The economic reforms under President Bola Tinubu — including the removal of fuel subsidies, exchange rate unification, and tax restructuring — were acknowledged as ambitious steps aimed at stabilising the economy.

These reforms have contributed to improved external buffers, with rising foreign exchange reserves and reduced volatility.

Additionally, Nigeria’s fiscal deficit stood at 3.1 per cent of GDP in 2025, while the debt-to-GDP ratio declined for the first time in a decade.

Yet, the World Bank cautioned that tighter global financial conditions could still pose risks to capital inflows, borrowing costs, and remittances.

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