Economy
Nigeria’s 2023 Economic Growth to Slow to 2.9%
By Adedapo Adesanya
The World Bank has forecast that Nigeria’s economic growth will grow by 2.9 per cent, a deceleration that will affect the wider Sub-Saharan Africa’s economic growth.
According to the Bretton Wood institution in its twice-yearly Africa’s Pulse report, Nigeria alongside South Africa and Angola will be responsible for growth in the region which will slow to 2.5 per cent in 2023 from 3.6 per cent last year, the bank said in a report, before rebounding to a projected 3.7% next year and 4.1% in 2025.
Recall that the recent GDP figure for the second quarter of the year showed that Nigeria’s economy grew by 2.51 per cent year-on-year in real terms. This is 0.2 per cent points higher than the 2.31 per cent recorded in the previous quarter (first quarter of 2023).
The report noted that growth in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2023 was primarily supported by higher gross fixed investment, government consumption, and net exports.
It, however, warned that high rates of inflation, fuelled by food and energy prices as well as weaker currencies, have eroded the purchasing power of African citizens and, hence, explain the contraction of private consumption and its negative contribution to growth in 2023.
“The contribution of gross fixed investment, although positive, has declined this year as the (domestic and external) cost of financing remains elevated amid tightened financial conditions. The current account deficit declined in 2023 from the previous years as import growth decelerated at a faster rate than exports amid sluggish growth and weaker currencies,” the report noted.
From the production perspective, the service sector continues to be the main driver of growth—accounting for nearly two-thirds of the recorded increase in gross domestic product (GDP) in 2023.
The agriculture and industrial sectors made modest contributions. Rising costs of inputs and continued supply chain disruptions reduced the contributions of agricultural and industrial activities.
In per capita terms, the region has not recorded positive growth since 2015, as African countries’ economic activity has failed to keep pace with their rapid increase in population.
Some 12 million Africans enter the labour market each year, the World Bank said, but current growth patterns generate just 3 million jobs in the formal sector.
In Nigeria’s case, it is one of the 28 out of the 48 Sub-Saharan African countries that had their 2023 growth forecasts revised downward from the World Bank’s April estimates.
The continent’s most developed economy, South Africa, which is facing its worst energy crisis on record, is expected to grow just 0.5 per cent this year while oil-producing Angola is expected to slow to 1.3 per cent
Sudan, which is in the midst of a major internal armed conflict that has destroyed infrastructure and brought the economy to a standstill, is expected to be hit by a 12% contraction, the bank said. Excluding Sudan, regional growth would be 3.1 per cent.
“The region is projected to contract at an annual average rate per capita of 0.1% over 2015-2025, thus marking a lost decade of growth in the aftermath of the 2014-15 plunge in commodity prices,” the report stated.
While sub-Saharan inflation is expected to ease to 7.3 per cent this year from 9.3 per cent in 2022, it remains above central bank targets in most countries.
Meanwhile, recent military coups in Niger and Gabon in the wake of army takeovers in Guinea, Mali and Burkina Faso, as well as armed conflicts in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Sudan, have created additional risk in Africa.
The lender also warned that mounting debt is draining resources, with 31 per cent of regional revenues going to interest and loan payments in 2022.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange rose by 0.24 per cent on Wednesday, December 17, pulling the Unlisted Security Index (NSI) up by 8.62 points to 3,614.64 points from 3,606.02 points.
In the same vein, the market capitalisation added N4.72 billion to close at N2.164 billion compared with the N2.160 trillion it ended on Tuesday.
The growth was inspired by four securities, which finished on the gainers’ log, neutralising the losses printed by two other securities on the trading platform.
MRS Oil Plc gained N17.90 on Wednesday to end at N196.90 per unit versus N179.00 per unit, NASD Plc appreciated by 59 Kobo to N58.50 per share from N57.91 per share, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc added 15 Kobo to sell at N60.19 per unit versus N60.04 per unit, and Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc rose by 6 Kobo to 64 Kobo per share from 58 Kobo per share.
On the flip side, Golden Capital Plc extended its loss by 76 Kobo to end at N7.75 per unit versus N8.51 per unit, and Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc slipped by 35 Kobo to N39.65 per share from N40.00 per share.
Yesterday, the volume of transactions increased by 737.3 per cent to 20.4 million units from 2.4 million units, but the value of trades fell by 33.8 per cent to N72.2 million from N109.1 million, and the number of deals slid by 62.5 per cent to 21 deals from 56 deals.
Infrastructure Credit Guarantee Company (InfraCredit) Plc remained the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 5.8 billion units sold for N16.4 billion, the second position was occupied by Okitipupa Plc with 178.9 million units transacted for N9.5 billion, and the third place was taken by MRS Oil Plc with 36.1 million units worth N4.9 billion.
InfraCredit Plc was also the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 5.8 billion units traded for N16.4 billion, followed by IGI Plc with 1.2 billion units valued at N420.7 million, and Impresit Bakolori Plc with 536.9 million units worth N524.9 million.
By Dipo Olowookere
A 0.26 per cent growth was achieved by the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited on Wednesday on the back of sustained bargain-hunting by investors.
This happened despite a pocket of profit-taking, with industrial goods losing 0.63 per cent and the energy index shedding 0.05 per cent.
But the insurance space increased by 2.02 per cent, the banking counter appreciated by 1.48 per cent, the commodity sector improved by 0.48 per cent, and the consumer goods segment rose by 0.03 per cent.
Consequently, the All-Share Index (ASI) went up by 383.71 points to 149,842.82 points from 149,459.11 points and the market capitalisation jumped by N244 billion to N95.525 trillion from N95.281 trillion.
The market breadth index remained positive after the bourse finished with 38 price gainers and 23 price losers, indicating a strong investor sentiment.
The quartet of First Holdco, Lasaco Assurance, Veritas Kapital, and Prestige Assurance gained 10.00 per cent to quote at N39.60, N2.75, N1.76, and N1.65, respectively, while Mecure Industries grew by 9.92 per cent to N50.40.
Conversely, Living Trust Mortgage Bank lost 10.00 per cent to close at N3.15, International Energy Insurance dropped 9.92 per cent to trade at N2.27, McNichols shrank by 6.90 per cent to N2.97, Omatek decreased by 6.84 per cent to N1.09, and Chams dipped by 6.41 per cent to N2.92.
The activity level witnessed a significant surge at midweek, with Ecobank trading 5.3 billion units for N168.7 billion.
Further, First Holdco sold 108.2 million units worth N4.2 billion, Sterling Holdings exchanged 87.3 million units valued at N606.2 million, FCMB transacted 74.3 million units worth N783.6 million, and Access Holdings sold 41.5 million units for N841.4 million.
At the close of trades, market participants traded 5.9 billion units valued at N216.2 billion in 25,205 deals compared with the 1.0 billion units worth N21.8 billion traded in 23,701 deals a day earlier, showing a rise in the trading volume, value, and number of deals by 490.00 per cent, 891.74 per cent, and 6.35 per cent, respectively.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira depreciated against the United States Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) on Wednesday, December 17, by N3.67 or 0.25 per cent, closing at N1,455.49/$1, in contrast to Tuesday’s closing price of N1,451.82/$1.
Also, the local currency weakened against the Euro in the official market at midweek by 98 Kobo to close at N1,706.72/€1 versus the previous session’s price of N1,705.74/€1, but improved against the Pound Sterling by 75 Kobo to trade at N1,943.28/£1 compared with the N1,943.98/£1 it traded a day earlier.
At the GTBank forex counter, the Nigerian currency lost N3 against the greenback to finish at N1,463/$1 versus N1,460/$1 and in the parallel market, it remained unchanged at N1,475/$1.
Thin US dollar inflows from exporters, non-bank corporate, foreign portfolio investors and absence of immediate intervention of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to strengthen supply triggered fresh pressure.
This is coming off the back of decline in inflows through the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market which decreased to $716.3 million last week from $844.70 million in the previous week , a 15 per cent drop in a week.
The intervention comes as the CBN expect inflows from Detty December to alleviate need for FX demand, but exorbitant local prices may be keeping spending at bay.
Regardless of the seasonal demand, positive FX support for the local currency through 2025 signals a deliberate action to ensure the local currency maintains the trading range amidst growing external reserves. Latest data showed that gross external reserves position advanced to $45.47 billion, reflecting a 11.2 per cent Year-to-Date (YTD) gain.
In the cryptocurrency market, there was selling pressure as traders liquidated positions amid a short-rally, leading Litecoin (LTC) to slip by 5.2 per cent to close at $75.12m, as Cardano (ADA) depreciated by 5.0 per cent to $0.3619, and Dogecoin (DOGE) lost 4.8 per cent to finish at $0.1247.
In addition, Ripple (XRP) depreciated by 4.7 per cent to $1.83, Solana (SOL) crashed by 4.1 per cent to $122.62, Ethereum (ETH) went down by 3.9 per cent to $2,826.62, Binance Coin (BNB) fell by 3.4 per cent to $833.07, and Bitcoin (BTC) tumbled by 0.5 per cent to sell at $86,436.66, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) closed flat at $1.00 each.
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