Economy
Nigeria’s 2023 Economic Growth to Slow to 2.9%
By Adedapo Adesanya
The World Bank has forecast that Nigeria’s economic growth will grow by 2.9 per cent, a deceleration that will affect the wider Sub-Saharan Africa’s economic growth.
According to the Bretton Wood institution in its twice-yearly Africa’s Pulse report, Nigeria alongside South Africa and Angola will be responsible for growth in the region which will slow to 2.5 per cent in 2023 from 3.6 per cent last year, the bank said in a report, before rebounding to a projected 3.7% next year and 4.1% in 2025.
Recall that the recent GDP figure for the second quarter of the year showed that Nigeria’s economy grew by 2.51 per cent year-on-year in real terms. This is 0.2 per cent points higher than the 2.31 per cent recorded in the previous quarter (first quarter of 2023).
The report noted that growth in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2023 was primarily supported by higher gross fixed investment, government consumption, and net exports.
It, however, warned that high rates of inflation, fuelled by food and energy prices as well as weaker currencies, have eroded the purchasing power of African citizens and, hence, explain the contraction of private consumption and its negative contribution to growth in 2023.
“The contribution of gross fixed investment, although positive, has declined this year as the (domestic and external) cost of financing remains elevated amid tightened financial conditions. The current account deficit declined in 2023 from the previous years as import growth decelerated at a faster rate than exports amid sluggish growth and weaker currencies,” the report noted.
From the production perspective, the service sector continues to be the main driver of growth—accounting for nearly two-thirds of the recorded increase in gross domestic product (GDP) in 2023.
The agriculture and industrial sectors made modest contributions. Rising costs of inputs and continued supply chain disruptions reduced the contributions of agricultural and industrial activities.
In per capita terms, the region has not recorded positive growth since 2015, as African countries’ economic activity has failed to keep pace with their rapid increase in population.
Some 12 million Africans enter the labour market each year, the World Bank said, but current growth patterns generate just 3 million jobs in the formal sector.
In Nigeria’s case, it is one of the 28 out of the 48 Sub-Saharan African countries that had their 2023 growth forecasts revised downward from the World Bank’s April estimates.
The continent’s most developed economy, South Africa, which is facing its worst energy crisis on record, is expected to grow just 0.5 per cent this year while oil-producing Angola is expected to slow to 1.3 per cent
Sudan, which is in the midst of a major internal armed conflict that has destroyed infrastructure and brought the economy to a standstill, is expected to be hit by a 12% contraction, the bank said. Excluding Sudan, regional growth would be 3.1 per cent.
“The region is projected to contract at an annual average rate per capita of 0.1% over 2015-2025, thus marking a lost decade of growth in the aftermath of the 2014-15 plunge in commodity prices,” the report stated.
While sub-Saharan inflation is expected to ease to 7.3 per cent this year from 9.3 per cent in 2022, it remains above central bank targets in most countries.
Meanwhile, recent military coups in Niger and Gabon in the wake of army takeovers in Guinea, Mali and Burkina Faso, as well as armed conflicts in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Sudan, have created additional risk in Africa.
The lender also warned that mounting debt is draining resources, with 31 per cent of regional revenues going to interest and loan payments in 2022.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria’s 650,000 barrels-per-day Dangote Refinery hit its highest-ever monthly crude intake in April 2026, taking in about 635,000 barrels per day of crude oil, according to Argus tracking data.
Deliveries in the review month rose from 565,000 barrels per day in March, bringing the refinery close to its full installed capacity.
The increase followed the completion of maintenance work on one of the refinery’s crude distillation units earlier this year.
This indicates that the Dangote Refinery is steadily ramping up operations toward full capacity after a gradual start since late 2023.
The refinery received 21 separate crude cargoes in April — a record since operations began.
All supplies came from West Africa, mainly Nigerian crude grades, with one cargo from Cameroon.
Nigerian grades delivered included Bonny Light, Escravos, Qua Iboe, Bonga, Forcados, Brass River, Amenam, and others.
Cameroon’s Ebome crude was supplied to the refinery for the first time.
April receipts comprised 160,000 barrels per day of Bonny Light, 65,000 barrels per day each of Escravos, Qua Iboe and Bonga, 50,000 barrels per day of CJ Blend, then 25,000-35,000 barrels per day each of Nigerian Utapate, EA, Jones Creek, Amenam, Forcados, Brass River, plus 25,000 barrels per day of Cameroon’s Ebome.
The strong rise in local and regional crude supply could also reduce the refinery’s dependence on imported crude grades and strengthen Nigeria’s domestic fuel production capacity.
The Argus report said that no US crude was delivered in April, despite the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude previously being a major feedstock for the plant in 2025.
The refinery relied heavily on Suezmax tankers, with some vessels making multiple shuttle trips between offshore terminals and the refinery.
Average crude receipts in the first four months of 2026 climbed to 495,000 barrels per day, significantly above last year’s average of 375,000 barrels per day.
The data assessed Dangote’s April receipts at a weighted average of 35.1°API and 0.2 per cent sulphur content, compared with 37.2°API and 0.2 per cent sulphur in March. Receipts averaged 37.1°API and 0.15 per cent sulphur in January-April, compared with 36.8°API and 0.2 per cent sulphur across 2025.
The report also added receipts for May appear good as the refinery should get a cargo each of Qua Iboe and Odudu this week.
By Bon Peters
About 17 containers containing illicit items worth over N2 billion have been seized by the Area 11 Command of the Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) in Onne, Port Harcourt, Rivers State, between January and April 2026.
In the period under review, the agency generated about N258 billion as revenue, a statement signed by the command’s acting spokesman, Mr Paul Istifanus Gimba, an Assistant Superintendent of Customs 1, disclosed on Thursday.
The Customs Area Controller for the Command, Comptroller Aliyu Mohammed Alkali, said last month, more than N77 billion was generated, noting that this reflects the command’s unwavering commitment to revenue generation, trade facilitation, and the enforcement of extant government fiscal policies.
He stated that in the second month of this month, his men intercepted an attempt to smuggle one 40-foot container declared to contain plumbing materials, with a Duty Paid Value (DPV) of N185.2 million.
According to him, upon examination, it was discovered that the perpetrators had concealed the original container number and replaced it with a fake one in an attempt to unlawfully remove the container from the port without payment of duty.
Furthermore, he hinted that in April 2026, the command intercepted six 20-foot containers carrying a total of 1,100 jerricans of Super Delicieux Vegetable Oil with a DPV of N494.0 million, in contravention of section 55 of the Nigeria Customs Service Act, 2023, which prohibited the importation of refined vegetable oils and fats in order to protect and promote local industries, particularly domestic vegetable oil producers and agro-allied businesses.
The senior customs officer highlighted other items seized by his men during the period under review, including cartons of chilli cutters, ceiling fans, and food packs.
The Comptroller reminded all mischievous importers and their agents that the command remained unwavering in its resolve to combat smuggling and all forms of illegal trade practices at the port, even as he strongly encouraged all law-abiding traders to remain compliant and resist the temptation to engage in activities that contravene the law.
Mr Alkali praised the professionalism of the officers and men of the command as well as their vigilance and dedication to duty.
He also thanked members of the press for their continued partnership and commitment to disseminating accurate and reliable information about the activities of the agency to the public.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Indonesia has imported crude oil from Nigeria as Southeast Asia’s largest economy moves to reduce its dependence on Middle Eastern supplies amid rising geopolitical tensions involving the United States, Israel, and Iran.
Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources confirmed that Nigerian crude cargoes have already arrived in the country as part of efforts to diversify supply routes away from the volatile Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil transit chokepoint that handles about 20 per cent of world oil shipments.
The development positions Nigeria as an increasingly strategic alternative supplier in the global energy market as buyers seek more stable and flexible crude sources outside the Middle East.
Nigeria, which is Africa’s largest crude producer, has always sold some of its crude grades via joint ventures with international oil companies as well as to Dangote Refinery, to boost domestic production.
Indonesia’s Director General of Oil and Gas, Mr Laode Sulaeman, said the country was prioritising crude imports from suppliers whose shipping routes do not pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which has faced heightened security concerns following the ongoing conflict involving Iran, Israel, and the United States.
Apart from Nigeria, Indonesia is also considering crude supplies from Russia and the US.
The move could strengthen Nigeria’s crude export market at a time the country is seeking to boost production levels and attract new long-term buyers for its oil grades.
Speaking in March, the chief executive of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited, Mr Bayo Ojulari, said that Nigeria could increase oil production by about 100,000 barrels per day over the next few months to realistically help the global shortfall.
Before the latest geopolitical tensions, around 20 per cent of Indonesia’s crude imports came from the Middle East. However, the country has now accelerated plans to diversify supply sources, naming Nigeria among key replacement suppliers alongside Angola, Brazil, Russia, and the US.
The development comes as Nigeria continues to gain attention in global oil markets, with its crude grades increasingly sought after because of their relatively low sulphur content and suitability for modern refineries.
Indonesia also recently opened talks with Russia for long-term crude and liquefied petroleum gas supplies, including a proposed purchase of 150 million barrels of Russian crude scheduled for delivery from late 2026.
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