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Nigeria’s Current Sources of FX Inflows Unreliable—Emefiele

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By Aduragbemi Omiyale

Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Mr Godwin Emefiele, has expressed worry over the sources of foreign exchange (FX) inflows in Nigeria, describing them as unreliable as they are prone to external forces, which hurt the nation’s economy.

Nigeria, the largest economy in Africa, has struggled to strengthen its legal tender, the Naira, in the forex market due to a shortage of foreign currencies to meet the demand of end-users.

Despite the prices of crude oil rising on the global market, the country’s external reserves have continued to deplete because the apex bank dips its hands into the purse to defend the local currency in the FX market.

Nigeria relies on crude oil sales to earn forex but it has not been able to take advantage of the recent rise in the price of the commodity as well as the war in Ukraine instigated by Russia.

A few months ago, the CBN, in an effort to change the narrative, launched an initiative called CBN RT 200 aimed at generating $200 billion from non-oil exports in the coming years.

The central bank was in Lagos on Thursday for a Non-Oil Export Summit and the CBN chief stated that country’s foreign exchange challenges were beyond the powers of monetary policy, noting that efforts are being made to manage both the demand and supply side to meet forex obligations.

Attributing the current challenges of the Nigerian economy to a combination of local and global factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic, delays in global logistic value chains and local security challenges, he expressed concern that most of Nigeria’s current sources of FX inflows were unreliable and prone to fluctuations of global economic developments.

Mr Emefiele noted that the global economic challenges had impacted food production among others and had exerted undue pressure on the economy, thereby exposing the fragility of the Nigerian economy and making macroeconomic management very difficult.

“These problems call for urgent design and steadfast implementation of other supportive, structural, and complementary policies that are broad-based, coordinated and focused on complementing the work of the monetary authority,” he noted.

Reiterating the need for a more diversified economy, Mr Emefiele said Nigeria could be great without crude oil, the global price of which the country had no control over.

He, therefore, urged all stakeholders to regroup by working together to reposition Nigeria on a growth trajectory by taking diversification of the economy much more seriously, emphasising that Nigeria had very little choice left but to look inwards and find innovative solutions to its challenges.

In order to avoid sudden adjustments to Nigeria’s economic life, he said there was the need to focus on strategies that can help the country earn more stable and sustainable inflows of foreign exchange.

“We would need to follow the best practices of other countries and ensure that we protect ourselves a little bit from factors that are beyond our immediate control. This is the time to start working in synergy for the good of our nation.

“This is the time for us as a Banking Community to do more and support exporters who have been flying the flag of Nigeria in the international market space,” Mr Emefiele declared.

Although he admitted the enormity of the ultimate goal of $200 billion in non-oil exports over the medium term, Mr Emefiele expressed confidence that the goal was attainable, given the fact that many countries less endowed than Nigeria had achieved much in the field of agriculture.

To underscore his point, he said within a short period of implementing the Non-Oil FX Rebate Scheme, the country had recorded a significant increase in non-oil export repatriation, adding that eligible exporters had been paid over N3.5 billion in rebates.

In his remarks, the Governor of Lagos State, Mr Babajide Sanwo-Olu, lauded the CBN and other actors in the banking sector for supporting the efforts by the Federal Government and states, especially Lagos, to boost growth in the economy.

Mr Sanwo-Olu expressed optimism that the Lekki Deep Seaport, which he described as the largest in West Africa, will be handed over for use at the end of 2022, thereby providing enormous opportunities to exporters to ply their trade and by extension improve the export earnings of the country.

As part of efforts to decongest the Apapa and Tin Can Island Ports in Lagos, the Governor said the state government was awaiting approval for work to begin on the Badagry Ports in the Western part of Lagos.

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Economy

Dangote, GCL Seal 25-year Gas Supply Deal for Ethiopian Fertiliser Plant

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By Modupe Gbadeyanka

A $4.2 billion gas deal aimed to power a fertiliser project in Ethiopia has been signed between Nigeria’s Dangote Industries Limited and China’s GCL Group.

The Chinese firm is expected to supply stable natural gas to Dangote Group’s upcoming 3‑million‑tonne‑per‑year urea fertiliser production complex in Ethiopia for 25 years.

The natural gas supplied by GCL will be sourced from the Calub Gas Field in Ethiopia’s Ogaden Basin and delivered via a dedicated 108‑kilometre pipeline directly to the Dangote fertiliser complex in Gode, Somali Region.

The initiative aligns with Africa’s broader objective of establishing an integrated energy‑to‑food value chain, leveraging local resources to drive industrial autonomy.

The fertiliser plant, valued at $2.5 billion, is being developed under a 60:40 equity structure between Dangote Group and Ethiopian Investment Holdings (EIH), respectively, and is scheduled to begin operations in 2029.

Once commissioned, it will become East Africa’s largest modern fertiliser production hub, fully meeting Ethiopia’s current urea import demand while supplying neighbouring regional markets.

The project is expected to significantly reshape East Africa’s fertiliser landscape, reducing reliance on imports and strengthening agricultural self‑sufficiency.

“Africa’s energy industry cannot continue indefinitely exporting raw materials while importing finished products. We must pursue a new path of highly autonomous development.

“Through seamless integration and strategic cooperation with GCL, we will achieve an efficient closed‑loop value chain from natural gas extraction to fertiliser production, taking a crucial step toward enabling Africa to secure greater autonomy over its food security,” Mr Aliko Dangote said at the signing ceremony in Lagos.

The Chairman of GCL Group, Mr Zhu Gongshan, also reaffirmed the company’s confidence in the partnership, noting that the agreement was made possible through the facilitation and support of the Ethiopian government.

“This cooperation will enable both sides to expand new frontiers in Ethiopia’s energy, chemical, and food security sectors while transitioning from a business going global model toward a mutually beneficial ecosystem‑based framework.

“Leveraging GCL’s integrated oil and gas operations in Ethiopia and Dangote Group’s extensive industrial footprint across Africa, the partnership will significantly enhance our service capabilities and market reach across the continent.”

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Economy

Tinubu Tasks Oyedele with Fiscal Reforms as Minister of State for Finance

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By Adedapo Adesanya

President Bola Tinubu has sworn in Mr Taiwo Oyedele as the new Minister of State for Finance, tasking him with fiscal reforms aimed at improving government revenue and strengthening Nigeria’s economic management framework.

He took his oath of office before the President at the Presidential Villa, Abuja, on Monday.

President Tinubu nominated Mr Oyedele for the new role on March 3, 2026, to replace Mrs Doris Uzoka-Anite, who was moved to serve as the Minister of State for Budget and National Planning.

On March 11, the Senate confirmed him after a screening session, where the tax expert pledged to pursue fiscal reforms aimed at improving government revenue, ensuring realistic budgeting, and strengthening Nigeria’s economic management framework.

He was cleared by the lawmakers through a voice vote at the Committee of the Whole, after hours of screening.

Mr Oyedele, the former chairman of the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms, described his nomination as a call to serve Nigeria.

“With over two decades of experience working with national governments, multilateral institutions, and global corporations, my journey across the private sector, academia, and public policy has focused on fiscal governance and economic transformation.

“However, this moment is not about personal accomplishments; it is a call to serve at a critical time when Nigeria faces significant fiscal challenges and remarkable opportunities,” the 50-year-old said in the upper chamber.

He said his decades-long experience working on “global reforms regarding the ease of doing business and taxation across 180 countries” had prepared him for the role.

“I feel my background has prepared me to help my country by understanding what works globally and how to apply those lessons to our unique context,” Mr Oyedele added.

The public policy expert, accountant, and economist was appointed by the President to chair the tax reform committee in July 2023.

This led to the creation of four bills: the Nigeria Tax Bill, the Nigeria Tax Administration Bill, the Nigeria Revenue Service (Establishment) Bill, and the Joint Revenue Board (Establishment) Bill were passed by the National Assembly last year after months of extensive debates and controversies, and assented to by Tinubu on June 26, 2025.

The former fiscal policy partner and Africa tax leader at PriceWaterhouseCoopers (PwC) attended Yaba College of Technology and bagged a Higher National Diploma (HND) in Accountancy and Finance.

Mr Oyedele also earned a BSc in applied accounting from Oxford Brookes University.

His academic journey saw him study at the London School of Economics, Yale University, the Gordon Institute of Business Science, and the Harvard Kennedy School, where he completed executive education programmes.

The ministerial nominee worked for decades with PWC, having started his career at the organisation in 2001.

He is a professor at Babcock University in Ogun State as well as a visiting scholar at the Lagos Business School.

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Economy

Fears Over Impact on African Nations if Iran War Drags on

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CNN’s Larry Madowo reports that oil price spikes triggered by the war with Iran could have a catastrophic impact on African nations. Even Africa’s most advanced economy, South Africa, is exposed to the oil price shocks, which could cause higher fuel costs, rising inflation and renewed pressure on currencies.

The government in Kenya is reassuring citizens that there are no immediate fears of a fuel shortage, and prices have not spiked. Many Governments across Africa are reassuring their citizens that they have stocks to last them for the time being. But they can’t make long-term guarantees because many African nations depend on imported refined petroleum from the Gulf.

This conflict just crossed the 12-day mark, and economist Kwame Owino tells Madowo that African nations should start preparing for a catastrophic scenario, “while no African countries are directly involved in the conflict, we still suffer quite substantially. Governments need to adjust. So, for instance, the government of Kenya has some of the highest taxes globally on fuel prices, so adjusting fiscal policy to allow for greater affordability is important, even if it means that the government will have a lower take.”

Africa’s most advanced economy, South Africa, is one of those exposed to the oil price shocks. One South African airline, Flysafair, announced it would be adding a temporary dynamic fuel surcharge after jet fuel prices rose by 70% in one week at South African airports. Other airlines, including national carrier South African Airways, said they were monitoring prices.

Nigeria is Africa’s most populous nation and one of the largest economies. It is also a crude oil producer, so it’s likely to cash in on the increase in global oil prices. But Nigeria still imports refined petroleum, so it is not immune to the shocks that the global markets are seeing.

The bigger picture here is that African economies are more fragile than stronger, more advanced economies. Owino says, “These economies are small and fragile. They are dependent on those imports. So, when there’s a global conflict, it affects these economies. And African economies also tend to recover slowly, much slower to have a slower path of recovery.”

Fuel prices are holding steady right now. But if the conflict with Iran drags on, just about everything here in Kenya and across the African continent will get more expensive, adding more pain for African consumers.

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