Nigeria’s Daily Crude Production Falls 12.8% to 1.29mbpd in July 2023

By Adedapo Adesanya

The latest data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has shown that Nigeria’s daily production of crude oil fell by 12.8 per cent to 1.29 million barrels per day in July from 1.48 million barrels per day the previous month.

The figure includes condensates of almost 0.2 million barrels per day. Excluding condensates, the nation’s total crude oil output was around 1.08 million barrels per day compared with nearly 1.3 million barrels per day in June 2023.

This decrease is the sharpest since April 2023, when total crude oil and condensate production dropped to 1.25 million barrels per day.

The fall in crude oil output in the review month was mostly due to a significant reduction in crude oil evacuation through the Forcados oil terminal following pipeline repairs after the discovery of oil leaks.

The NUPRC data showed that crude oil output (excluding condensates) through the terminal fell to approximately 0.09 million barrels per day compared with 0.24 million barrels per day in the prior month.

Additional contributing factors to the decline include minor output reductions of 18 thousand barrels per day, 9 thousand barrels per day, and 7 thousand barrels per day at the Bonny, Escravos, and Qua Iboe terminals, respectively.

Nigeria has consistently failed to produce to its quota in the agreement by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, OPEC+, which gave it a target of 1.8 million barrels per day.

Nigeria’s OPEC+ quota excludes condensates, but these multiple problems make Nigeria the biggest laggard in crude oil production in the 23-nation alliance.

On a positive note, crude oil evacuations from Forcados are expected to ramp up to optimal levels of 0.23 million barrels per day following the recent completion of repairs by Shell Petroleum Development Company.

Ongoing challenges with crude oil theft and illegal connections to key trunk pipelines have prevented the country’s oil output from reaching potential levels of around 1.7 to 1.8 million barrels per day.

Although the oil sector contributes about 6.2 per cent to Nigeria’s GDP as of the first quarter, its importance to the economy is underscored by the fact that it accounts for more than 80 per cent of foreign earnings.

NUPRC plans to hold an international roadshow in the coming weeks to attract investments in its upstream sector.