Economy
Nigeria’s Debt Jumps 75.3% to N87.38trn in Q2 CBN Loan Securitization, Naira Float
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Debt Management Office (DMO) has said Nigeria’s total public debt rose by 75.3 per cent to N87.38 trillion at the end of the second quarter of 2023 against N49.85 trillion recorded in the first quarter of the year.
In the report published by the debt office on Thursday, there was a N37.53 trillion rise in the country’s internal and external debt in three months, the final quarter of President Muhammadu Buhari’s tenure.
The rise came as the country securitised the N22.71 trillion Ways and Means Advances of the Central Bank of Nigeria to the federal government. The overdraft is a loan facility through which the CBN finances the shortfalls in the government’s budget.
This also happened as the country liberalised the exchange rate in mid-June, a move that saw the Naira drop by over 40 per cent.
The DMO stated, “Nigeria’s total public debt stock as at June 30, 2023, was N87.38 trillion ($113.42 billion). It comprises the total domestic and external debts of the Federal Government of Nigeria, the thirty-six states, and the Federal Capital Territory.
“The major addition to the Public Debt Stock was the inclusion of the N22.712 trillion securitized FGN’s Ways and Means Advances.”
The statement also noted that other additions to the debt stock were new borrowings by the federal government and the sub-nationals from local and external sources.
It added, “The reforms already introduced by the present administration and those that may emerge from the recommendations of the Fiscal Reform and Tax Policies Committee are expected to impact debt strategy and improve debt sustainability.”
Business Post had earlier reported that the DMO projected that Nigeria’s public debt burden may hit N77 trillion following the National Assembly’s approval of the request by former President Muhammadu Buhari to restructure the CBN’s Ways and Means Advances.
The Director-General of the DMO, Ms Patience Oniha, during a public presentation of the 2023 budget organised by the former Minister of Finance, Budget and National Planning, Mrs Zainab Ahmed, noted that the debt would be N70 trillion without N5 trillion new borrowing and N2 trillion promissory notes.
However, the latest data showed that the current debt stock of N87.38 trillion exceeded the DMO’s projection (N77.33 trillion) by N10.38 trillion.
Further breakdown showed that Nigeria has a total domestic debt of N54.13 trillion and a total external debt of N33.25tn.
While the domestic debt makes up 61.95 per cent of total debt, the external makes up 38.05 per cent.
The domestic debt rose by 79.18 per cent from N30.21 trillion, while the external debt rose by 69.28 per cent from N19.64tn in Q1 2023.
In its 2022 Debt Sustainability Analysis Report, the DMO warned that the Federal Government’s projected revenue of N10 trillion for 2023 could not support fresh borrowings.
According to the office, the projected government’s debt service-to-revenue ratio of 73.5 per cent for 2023 is high and a threat to debt sustainability.
It noted that the government’s current revenue profile could not support higher levels of borrowing.
DMO has tasked the country to desist from borrowing and urged the government to encourage the private sector to fund some of the capital projects that were being financed from borrowing through the public-private partnership schemes.
It added that the federal government can reduce borrowing through the privatisation and/or sale of government assets.
Over the years, Nigeria’s low revenue generation has pushed the government to more borrowing.
However, President Bola Tinubu recently expressed his administration’s commitment to break the cycle of overreliance on borrowing for public spending and the resultant burden of debt servicing it places on the management of limited government revenues.
According to the Minister of Finance, Mr Wale Edun, the federal government has no intention to borrow from any local or foreign organisation as it is interested in boosting taxes and other revenue outlets.
“The federal government is not in a position to borrow at this time. Rather, the emphasis has to be on creating a stable macroeconomic environment. Stable inflation, stable exchange rate, an environment within which people can come and invest and thereby increase production and further grow the economy. Improve and create jobs and reduce poverty,” he said at the last Federal Executive Council (FEC) in August.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Energy stocks influenced the 4.76 per cent loss recorded by the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange on Friday, December 5.
The culprits were the duo of 11 Plc and Nipco Plc,with the former shedding N32.17 to end at N291.83 per share compared with the previous day’s N324.00 per share, and the latter down by N21.00 to sell at N195.00 per unit versus the previous session’s N216.00 per unit.
Consequently, the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) slumped by 170.16 points to 3,401.37 points from 3,571.53 points and the market capitalisation lost N101.81 billion to close at N2.035 billion from the N2.136 trillion quoted in the preceding session.
The OTC securities exchange suffered the decline yesterday despite the share prices of three companies closing green.
Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc was up by N1.80 to close at N39.80 per share compared with Thursday’s price of N38.00 per share, Air Liquide Plc appreciated by N1.09 to N11.99 per unit from N10.90 per unit, and FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc grew by 78 Kobo to N56.57 per share from N55.79 per share.
During the session, the volume of transactions rose by 6,885.3 per cent to 18.2 million units from 4.3 million units, the value of transactions ballooned by 10,301.7 per cent to N389.7 million from N347.2 million, but the number of deals declined by 29.7 per cent to 26 deals from 37 deals.
Infrastructure Credit Guarantee Company (InfraCredit) Plc ended the day as the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 5.8 billion units worth N16.4 billion, followed by Okitipupa Plc with 170.4 million units valued at N8.0 billion, and Air Liquide Plc with 507.5 million units worth N4.2 billion.
InfraCredit Plc also finished the day as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 5.8 billion units transacted for N16.4 billion, followed by Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc with 1.2 billion units sold for N420.2 million, and Impresit Bakolori Plc with 536.9 million units worth N524.9 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira depreciated further against the US Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Friday, December 5, as FX demand pressure mounts.
The Nigerian currency lost N2.60 or 0.18 per cent against the greenback to close at N1,450.43/$1 compared with the previous day’s N1,447.83/$1.
Equally, the domestic currency declined against the Pound Sterling in the official forex market during the session by N4.48 to trade at N1,935.45/£1, in contrast to Thursday’s closing price of N1,930.97/£1 and shrank against the Euro by 43 Kobo to end at N1,689.17/€1 versus the preceding session’s rate of N1,688.74/€1.
Similarly, the local currency performed badly against the US Dollar at the GTBank FX counter by N2 to close at N1,455/$1 versus Thursday’s N1,453/$1 but traded flat at the parallel market at N14.65/$1.
As the country gets into the festive period, pressure mounted on the local currency reflecting higher foreign payments and lower FX inflows.
However, there are expectations that the Nigerian currency will be stable, supported by interventions by to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in the face of steady dollar Demand and inflows from Detty December festivities that will give the Naira a boost after it depreciated mildly last month.
Traders cited by Reuters expect that the Naira will trade within a band of N1,443-N1,450/$1 next week, buoyed by improved FX interventions by the apex bank.
As for the crypto market, it was down yesterday due to profit-taking associated with year-end trading. However, the December 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectation by the University of Michigan fell to 4.1 per cent from 4.5 per cent previously and 4.5 per cent expected. The 5-Year Consumer Inflation Expectation fell to 3.2 per cent from 3.4 per cent previously and 3.4 per cent expected.
With the dearth of official economic data of late, these private surveys have taken on a new level of significance and the market banks of them to make decisions.
Cardano (ADA) depreciated by 5.7 per cent to $0.4142, Dogecoin (DOGE) slid by 5.1 per cent to $0.1394, Ethereum (ETH) dropped by 3.9 per cent to $3,039.75, Solana (SOL) declined by 3.8 per cent to $133.24, and Litecoin (LTC) fell by 3.7 per cent to $80.59.
Further, Bitcoin (BTC) went down by 2.6 per cent to sell at $89,683.72, Binance Coin (BNB) slumped by 2.2 per cent to $883.59, and Ripple (XRP) shrank by 2.1 per cent to $2.04, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 each.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The oil market was up on Friday on increasing expectations the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week, which could boost economic growth and energy demand.
Brent futures rose by 49 cents or 0.8 per cent to $63.75 per barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures expanded by 41 cents or 0.7 per cent to $60.08 per barrel.
Investors digested a US inflation report and recalibrated expectations for the Federal Reserve to reduce rates at its December 9-10 meeting.
US consumer spending increased moderately in September after three straight months of solid gains, suggesting a loss of momentum in the economy at the end of the third quarter as a lackluster labor market and the rising cost of living curbed demand.
Traders have been pricing in an 87 per cent chance that the US central bank will lower borrowing costs by 25 basis points next week, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
Investors also focused on news from Russia and Venezuela to determine whether oil supplies from the two sanctioned members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) will increase or decrease in the future.
The failure of US talks in Moscow to achieve any significant breakthrough over the war in Ukraine has helped to boost oil prices so far this week.
A loss of Venezuelan oil production in case of a US military intervention will materially impact global benchmark prices as the market will have to replace Venezuela’s heavy crude.
Venezuela is estimated to pump about 1.1 million barrels per day of crude oil at present, so if the US-Venezuela tension escalation into an invasion in the South American country, this volume of crude would be at risk.
Reuters reported that the Group of Seven countries and the European Union are in talks to replace a price cap on Russian oil exports with a full maritime services ban in a bid to reduce the oil revenue that helps finance Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Any deal that could lift sanctions on Russia, the world’s second-biggest crude producer after the US, could increase the amount of oil available to global markets, weakening prices.
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