Economy
Nigeria’s Dollar Liquidity Shortage May Continue—Moody’s
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
Nigeria’s (B1 stable) dollar liquidity constraints are likely to persist for the foreseeable future, despite the recent improvements in foreign exchange earnings and availability, Moody’s Investors Service said in a report today.
This was disclosed in a report titled ‘Government of Nigeria FAQ On Exchange Rate Policy, Balance of Payments Position and Growth Outlook.’
“Despite the recent improvement in foreign exchange liquidity, dollar usage in Nigeria is unlikely to return to previous levels,” said Aurélien Mali, a Moody’s Vice President, Senior Credit Officer and co-author of the report. “Oil prices are highly unlikely to return to the $100 per barrel level that would lead to greater foreign exchange inflows.”
The oil price shock in 2014-15 more than halved Nigeria’s foreign exchange earnings, with exports falling from an average of around $90 billion between 2013 and 2014 to $46 billion in 2015. The drop in export earnings was compounded by attacks on oil infrastructure in the Niger delta region that reduced production volumes.
Over two years, Dollar usage in the economy has almost halved. Nigeria’s non-oil sectors have struggled to adjust to limited dollar liquidity, given the typically high import content of inputs and the delay associated with sourcing domestic substitutes.
In the first quarter of 2017, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) began to increase the availability of foreign exchange through two new exchange rate windows and interventions in the interbank market.
The change in policy has had a significant impact, driving a steady decline in the spread of the parallel rate over the official rate. It also coincides with a sustained recovery in oil production, signalling that the worst of the damage to growth and external accounts from the oil price shock has passed.
In Moody’s view, the improvement in foreign exchange availability is more cyclical than structural.
First, the recent increase in foreign exchange reserves has been heavily supported by $1.5 billion in international debt issuances, rather than non-oil exports. More importantly, it is the recent rebound in spot oil prices and the recovery in oil production since the fourth quarter of 2016 which will support dollar availability this year.
Central bank policies have helped to ensure the improved foreign exchange earnings have been distributed into the wider economy, but it is highly unlikely that the CBN would pursue these policies if the fundamentals were not supportive of them.
Improved foreign exchange earnings will support Nigeria’s balance of payments position. Nigeria’s current account has already moved from a deficit of $15.3 billion in 2015 to a small surplus in 2016.
Moody’s forecasts a positive balance of payments outlook for 2017, taking into account additional external borrowing and stable reserves of around $30 billion despite some volatility during the year.
The significant narrowing of the parallel rate spread as a result of the CBN’s policies and the creation of the investor exchange rate window should also support portfolio investment inflows, which have historically been substantially greater than foreign direct investment inflows.
By Dipo Olowookere
The bulls regained control of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited on Friday after surrendering power to the bears a day earlier as a result of mild selling pressure.
Yesterday, the Nigerian bourse rebounded by 0.54 per cent, mainly due to the gains recorded by First Holdco and others.
Data harvested by Business Post indicated that the industrial goods and energy sectors were flat, while the banking index chalked up 3.13 per cent. The insurance space expanded by 1.08 per cent, and the consumer goods counter rose by 0.21 per cent.
Consequently, the All-Share Index (ASI) went up by 1,316.52 points to 243,462.13 points from 242,145.61 points, and the market capitalisation grew by N850 billion to N157.057 trillion from N156.207 trillion.
The market breadth index was bullish during the last trading session of this week, printing 31 appreciating stocks and 23 depreciating stocks, representing strong investor sentiment.
First Holdco led the advancers’ log after it climbed 9.97 per cent to N95.95, Haldane McCall appreciated by 9.94 per cent to N3.65, LivingTrust Mortgage Bank soared by 9.73 per cent to N3.72, LASACO Assurance jumped by 5.26 per cent to N2.00, and Thomas Wyatt gained 5.10 per cent to quote at N3.09.
On the flip side, Red Star Express declined by 9.50 per cent to N20.00, Omatek slipped by 6.08 per cent to N1.70, C&I Leasing shrank by 5.93 per cent to N5.55, Jaiz Bank crashed by 5.03 per cent to N8.50, and Livestock Feed fell by 3.89 per cent to N8.65.
As for the activity chart, market participants bought and sold 685.9 million equities for N42.7 billion in 44,134 deals on Friday versus the 498.5 million equities worth N34.9 billion traded in 39,484 deals on Thursday, implying a rise in the trading volume, value, and number of deals by 37.59 per cent, 22.35 per cent, and 11.78 per cent, respectively.
Investors’ darling for the day was First Holdco, with a turnover of 225.9 billion units valued at N21.0 billion, Guinea Insurance sold 53.4 million units for N45.2 million, Zenith Bank traded 41.5 million units worth N4.7 billion, Access Holdings exchanged 29.1 million units valued at N720.6 million, and UBA exchanged 27.5 million units for N1.2 billion.
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
The Africa Association of Professional Freight Forwarders and Logistics of Nigeria (APFFLON) has appealed to the Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) to deepen its sensitisation on the newly introduced Green Tax Surcharge Policy.
The chairman of APFFLON, Mr Akeem Ayobiojo, made this plea on behalf of his colleagues on Tuesday, July 14, 2026, at the Customs House in Abuja, during a stakeholders’ engagement with the agency.
He also called for improvements in the administration of Pre-Arrival Assessment Reports and Post Clearance Audit and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
Mr Ayobiojo stated that freight forwarders were happy to work with the customs, commending the organisation for implementing Chapter 99, describing it as a major relief for manufacturers.
He, however, emphasised that a deeper understanding of the new tax was necessary for his members, saying more predictable procedures would reduce delays and unexpected costs for importers and freight forwarders.
In his remarks, the Comptroller-General of Customs, Mr Adewale Adeniyi, assured manufacturers, freight forwarders and other players in the nation’s trade sector that the NCS would continue to engage them on fiscal policies affecting their businesses, saying sustained dialogue remains key to resolving implementation challenges and improving the country’s trading environment.
He also promised them the service’s resolve to enhance and facilitate trade, acknowledging that, “Your feedback is important because it helps us understand what is happening in the field, and where necessary, we will take your concerns to the Federal Ministry of Finance and other relevant government institutions.”
Speaking about Authorised Economic Operator (AEO), Mr Adeniyi further explained that Nigeria would not lower the standards required under the Authorised Economic Operator Programme as the initiative is guided by global benchmarks established by the World Customs Organisation (WCO).
On her part, the Deputy Comptroller-General of Customs for Tariff and Trade, Ms Caroline Niagwan, clarified that electric vehicles can be imported without payment of duty only by holders of Import Duty Exemption Certificate (IDEC) issued by the Federal Ministry of Finance.
She also urged importers facing classification disputes to take advantage of the Advance Ruling system, noting, “Once an Advance Ruling is issued based on genuine documentation, importers have certainty on classification, valuation or origin before the goods arrive, thereby reducing unnecessary disputes during clearance.”
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira appreciated against the US Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Friday, July 17, by N1.35 or 0.07 per cent to N1,380.18/$1 from N1,381.53/$1.
It also improved its value against the Pound Sterling in the same market segment during the session by N11.75 to trade at N1,854.42/£1 compared with the previous day’s N1,866.17/£1, and gained N5.69 against the Euro to sell at N1,576.99/€1 versus Thursday’s closing price of N1,582.68/€1.
In the same vein, the Naira chalked up N1 against the United States currency yesterday at the GTBank forex desk to quote at N1,388/$1, in contrast to the preceding day’s N1,389/$1, but closed flat at the black market at N1,405/$1.
The appreciation of the Nigerian currency on Friday came amid fresh signals that Nigeria is building its external reserves for protection against shocks and excessive currency volatility.
The Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Mr Yemi Cardoso, said the country’s gross reserves had risen above approximately $52 billion by 15 July, while net reserves had increased from about $3 billion when the current CBN leadership took office to more than $40 billion.
Mr Cardoso linked the increase in reserves to reforms that had restored greater confidence in the foreign exchange system. He also pointed to efforts to diversify foreign currency inflows, including policies designed to increase remittances through official channels.
He noted that monthly diaspora remittances had risen above $600 million and the CBN expected them to reach approximately $1 billion by the end of 2026. The target is part of a broader effort to grow reserves through recurring inflows rather than temporary measures.
The improvement, he argued, had strengthened Nigeria’s capacity to respond when unexpected events threatened market stability.
The apex bank has also launched a new digital platform that will track every foreign exchange transaction involving Bureau De Change (BDC) operators, marking a major step in its efforts to improve transparency and strengthen oversight of Nigeria’s retail forex market.
As for the crypto market, prices were up as markets overlooked geopolitical developments and macro forces weighing on the whole market ecosystem rather than anything crypto-specific, with Cardano (ADA) up by 4.6 per cent to $0.1661.
Bitcoin (BTC) jumped by 1.8 per cent to $63,968.32, Ethereum (ETH) improved by 0.9 per cent to $1,843.88, Dogecoin (DOGE) also rose by 0.9 per cent to $0.0723, Solana (SOL) soared by 0.6 per cent to $74.90, Ripple (XRP) also appreciated by 0.6 per cent to $1.08, and Binance Coin (BNB) advanced by 0.1 per cent to $567.32.
However, TRON (TRX) depreciated by 0.2 per cent to close at $0.3218, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 each.
