Economy
Nigeria’s Dollar Liquidity Shortage May Continue—Moody’s
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
Nigeria’s (B1 stable) dollar liquidity constraints are likely to persist for the foreseeable future, despite the recent improvements in foreign exchange earnings and availability, Moody’s Investors Service said in a report today.
This was disclosed in a report titled ‘Government of Nigeria FAQ On Exchange Rate Policy, Balance of Payments Position and Growth Outlook.’
“Despite the recent improvement in foreign exchange liquidity, dollar usage in Nigeria is unlikely to return to previous levels,” said Aurélien Mali, a Moody’s Vice President, Senior Credit Officer and co-author of the report. “Oil prices are highly unlikely to return to the $100 per barrel level that would lead to greater foreign exchange inflows.”
The oil price shock in 2014-15 more than halved Nigeria’s foreign exchange earnings, with exports falling from an average of around $90 billion between 2013 and 2014 to $46 billion in 2015. The drop in export earnings was compounded by attacks on oil infrastructure in the Niger delta region that reduced production volumes.
Over two years, Dollar usage in the economy has almost halved. Nigeria’s non-oil sectors have struggled to adjust to limited dollar liquidity, given the typically high import content of inputs and the delay associated with sourcing domestic substitutes.
In the first quarter of 2017, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) began to increase the availability of foreign exchange through two new exchange rate windows and interventions in the interbank market.
The change in policy has had a significant impact, driving a steady decline in the spread of the parallel rate over the official rate. It also coincides with a sustained recovery in oil production, signalling that the worst of the damage to growth and external accounts from the oil price shock has passed.
In Moody’s view, the improvement in foreign exchange availability is more cyclical than structural.
First, the recent increase in foreign exchange reserves has been heavily supported by $1.5 billion in international debt issuances, rather than non-oil exports. More importantly, it is the recent rebound in spot oil prices and the recovery in oil production since the fourth quarter of 2016 which will support dollar availability this year.
Central bank policies have helped to ensure the improved foreign exchange earnings have been distributed into the wider economy, but it is highly unlikely that the CBN would pursue these policies if the fundamentals were not supportive of them.
Improved foreign exchange earnings will support Nigeria’s balance of payments position. Nigeria’s current account has already moved from a deficit of $15.3 billion in 2015 to a small surplus in 2016.
Moody’s forecasts a positive balance of payments outlook for 2017, taking into account additional external borrowing and stable reserves of around $30 billion despite some volatility during the year.
The significant narrowing of the parallel rate spread as a result of the CBN’s policies and the creation of the investor exchange rate window should also support portfolio investment inflows, which have historically been substantially greater than foreign direct investment inflows.
Economy
BNB Price Reflects Changing Dynamics in the Digital Asset Market
Economy
NASD Unlisted Security Index Crosses 4,000-point Benchmark Again
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange achieved a milestone on Friday, April 24, 2026, after five securities on the platform helped with a 1.85 per cent growth.
Data showed that the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) again crossed the 4,000-point benchmark yesterday.
The index chalked up 73.64 points during the trading day to close at 4,052.59 points compared with the preceding session’s 3,978.95 points, while the market capitalisation added N5.38 billion to finish at N2.424 trillion versus Thursday’s closing value of N2.380 trillion.
The price gainers were led by Okitipupa Plc, which grew by N25.00 to sell at N305.00 per share compared with the previous price of N280.00 per share. Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc gained N6.92 to close at N76.26 per unit versus N69.34 per unit, Afriland Properties Plc appreciated by N1.00 to N17.00 per share from N18.00 per share, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc improved by 55 Kobo to N99.55 per unit from N99.00 per unit, and Food Concepts Plc increased by 5 Kobo to N2.70 per share from N2.65 per share.
However, there was a price loser, MRS Oil, which dipped by N21.75 to N195.75 per unit from N217.50 per unit.
During the final session of the week, the value of securities jumped 75.2 per cent to N41.3 million from N23.6 million units, and the number of deals expanded by 62.9 per cent to 44 deals from 27 deals, while the volume of securities declined marginally by 0.9 per cent to 447,403 units from 451,522 units.
At the close of trades, Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc was the most traded stock by volume (year-to-date) with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, trailed by Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units valued at N415.7 million, and Infrastructure Guarantee Credit Plc with 400 million units traded for N1.2 billion.
GNI was also the most active stock by value (year-to-date) with 3.4 billion units sold for N8.4 billion, followed by CSCS Plc with 59.6 million units transacted for N4.0 billion, and Okitipupa Plc with 27.8 million units exchanged for N1.9 billion.
Economy
Naira Slips to N1,358/$1 as FX Reserves, Policy Uncertainty Concerns
By Adedapo Adesanya
It was not a good day for the Nigerian Naira in the currency market on Friday, April 24, as its value depreciated against the major foreign currencies at the close of transactions.
In the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX), it lost N4.53 or 0.33 per cent against the United States Dollar yesterday to trade at N1,358.44/$1, in contrast to the N1,353.91/$1 it was exchanged on Thursday.
Equally, the domestic currency slipped against the Pound Sterling in the official market during the session by N8.14 to close at N1,834.02/£1, compared with the previous rate of N1,825.88/£1 and dropped N8.01 against the Euro to sell at N1,590.73/€1 versus N1,582.72/€1.
Also, the Naira depreciated against the US Dollar at the GTBank FX desk on Friday by N4 to quote at N1,370/$1 compared with the previous session’s N1,366/$1, and at the parallel market, it depleted by N5 to settle at N1,380/$1 versus the preceding day’s N1,375/$1.
Data published by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) indicated that NFEM interbank turnover surged to N43.562 million across 68 deals, up from N28.117 million the previous day.
Despite the CBN’s reassurance that the recent drop in external reserves is not worrisome, the market remains unsettled by persistent concerns over liquidity constraints, policy transparency, and weakening confidence in Nigeria’s FX market as gross reserves continue to decline to $48.4 billion.
The outlook for the Dollar appears supported by broader macro risks, including elevated oil prices tied to the tanker traffic disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and a continued US-Iran standoff over ceasefire negotiations.
A look at the digital currency market showed that investors are sitting on the edge as the US Dollar rebounded amid geopolitical and inflation risks despite continued inflows into US spot bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs).
Solana (SOL) rose by 1.2 per cent to sell $86.45, Cardano (ADA) appreciated by 1.1 per cent to $0.2517, Dogecoin (DOGE) grew by 0.9 per cent to $0.0989, Ripple (XRP) improved by 0.3 per cent to $1.43, Ethereum (ETH) soared by 0.2 per cent to $2,316.83, and Binance Coin (BNB) chalked up 0.1 per cent to sell for $637.44.
However, TRON (TRX) depreciated by 1.3 per cent to $0.3235, and Bitcoin (BTC) lost 0.2 per cent to close at $77,562.27, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) closed flat at $1.00 each.
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