Economy
Nigeria’s Exchange Rate Will Further Depreciate in 2024—S&P
By Adedapo Adesanya
The road ahead is rough for the Naira in 2024 as projections from Standard and Poor’s (S&P) Global Ratings show that the exchange rate will further depreciate, triggered by Nigeria’s broadly flat reserves which limits the supply of the much-needed foreign exchange (FX).
In its Nigerian Banking Outlook 2024, the firm said higher import costs, arrears of FX transactions, and lower FX receipts stemming from oil exports would constrain growth in FX reserves.
“We forecast usable FX reserves of $28 billion in 2024,” the agency said.
It acknowledged the moves by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to clear backlogs, but these were largely inadequate as the market faced weak supply challenges, reaffirming a similar assertion by Fitch a few days ago.
The CBN has made efforts to clear approximately $2 billion out of a $7 billion backlog of FX transactions, while President Bola Tinubu was able to get Saudi Arabia to pledge FX support.
However, S&P said the Nigerian currency would continue to depreciate because of structural supply constraints, while the country’s import cost would rise higher than current oil exports due to the rates.
Nigeria gets 80 per cent of its foreign exchange from oil, but production has been hit due to the triple whammy of theft, structure vandalism, and underinvestment.
“We expect the current account to record a small surplus averaging below 1 per cent through 2025 as the import bill increases faster than oil exports due to high prices.
“While the Naira trades closer to a managed float rather than being a fully free-floating currency, the exchange rate is now significantly more in line with market demand and weak supply fundamentals,” S&P said.
The exchange rate fell below N1,200/$1 in December 2023, recovering to about N850/$1 thereafter but now the rates are trading at N900 per Dollar at the Nigerian Autonmous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) and selling for as high as N1,300 at other unregulated market segments.
The firm also currency depreciation and inflation will put pressure on asset quality as credit losses for the sector rose 3.5 per cent in 2023 due to currency depreciation, high-interest rates, and inflation, adding that while the sector’s NPL ratio will moderate in 2024, it will hover below the 5.0 per cent regulatory limit due to the currency effect on gross loans.
It noted that the CBN would likely hike interest rates from the current 18.75 per cent.
“Credit cycles are inherently correlated to oil prices and currency depreciation. Further rate hikes are possible due to the gap between inflation and the CBN’s benchmark rate. This will put pressure on borrowers as banks pass the full rate increase on to them.
“Credit risks also stem from energy transition risks, because loans to the hydrocarbon sector still represent a sizable share of the banking sector’s loans, at about 30 per cent of total loans. The banking system’s dollarization will increase following the naira depreciation in June 2023. We estimate that FX loans will reach 55 per cent of total loans,” it stated.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Senate has passed a bill to repeal and re-enact the law establishing the National Insurance Commission (NAICOM), paving the way for the regulatory agency to be renamed the Insurance Regulatory Commission (IRC).
The legislation, titled the Insurance Regulatory Commission (Establishment) Bill, 2026, was passed after the Senate considered and adopted the report of its committee on banking, insurance and other financial institutions.
The Chairman of the committee, Mr Adetokunbo Abiru, the senator representing Lagos East, who presented the report, stated that the proposed legislation was necessary because the existing National Insurance Commission Act of 1997 had become outdated and no longer reflected the realities of Nigeria’s evolving insurance industry or global regulatory standards.
According to the Senate, the decision to change the Commission’s name was informed by the need to eliminate confusion associated with the existing designation and to better reflect the institution’s regulatory mandate within Nigeria’s insurance industry.
The bill also provides legal protection for the commission and its officers against adverse claims arising from the lawful execution of their statutory duties.
However, he noted that the commission’s enabling law had become obsolete, exposing significant regulatory gaps that required urgent legislative intervention.
‘The current National Insurance Commission Act 1997 is outdated and does not adequately address the emerging economic growth, needs and development of the insurance business,” the lawmaker said.
He explained that the new legislation seeks to strengthen the independence of the commission by empowering it to make regulatory decisions without undue influence in the country’s insurance sector.
According to him, the bill also enhances the commission’s authority to exchange information and collaborate with domestic and international regulatory bodies, issue regulations, guidelines, standards and directives on insurance-related matters, and intervene more effectively in financially distressed insurance companies to protect policyholders and preserve financial stability.
This marks yet another move to strengthen the country’s insurance sector following the enactment of the Nigerian Insurance Industry Reform Act (NIIRA) of 2025 and the industry-wide recapitalisation exercise, which will wrap up by July 31.
By Adedapo Adesanya
About 143 companies that successfully passed the technical and prequalification stages of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission’s (NUPRC) 2025 Licensing Round will, today, compete for 50 oil and gas blocks at the commercial bid conference in Abuja, the final stage in the allocation process for the assets.
The commission said only the prequalified companies have been invited to attend the event, which will hold at the Conference Centre of the Transcorp Hilton Hotel, Abuja, stressing that participation is strictly by invitation.
The commercial bid conference will determine the successful bidders for oil and gas assets located across Nigeria’s producing and frontier basins.
The 50 blocks comprise 16 onshore blocks and 18 shallow water blocks in the Niger Delta, one deep offshore block, three onshore blocks in the Benin Basin, four in the Anambra Basin, four in the Chad Basin, and four in the Benue Trough.
According to the commission, the winning bids will be determined through a transparent evaluation process based on clearly defined commercial parameters. These include the signature bonus offered by bidders, the proposed work programme commitment and the level of performance security provided. The final selection will be based on a weighted technical and commercial score.
The licensing round is being conducted under the provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021, which requires a transparent and competitive process for the award of petroleum assets.
NUPRC had announced the commencement of the 2025 Licensing Round on November 11, 2025, before opening the online bid portal on December 1, 2025, to enable interested companies to register and participate in the exercise.
To ensure prospective investors fully understood the requirements, the commission organised a pre-bid conference on January 14, 2026, at Eko Hotels and Suites, Lagos. The event provided detailed explanations on the licensing guidelines and bidding procedures to registered participants and other stakeholders.
Registration and submission of prequalification documents closed on February 27, 2026, while the prequalification evaluation was completed on March 16, 2026.
NUPRC disclosed that 286 companies initially submitted applications for prequalification.
Following the evaluation process, 196 companies were cleared to participate in the technical and commercial bid stages.
The prequalified 143 companies eventually submitted a total of 200 bids for the available oil and gas blocks. These companies are now set to compete at the commercial bid conference, where the financial offers will be opened and evaluated to determine the eventual winners.
The licensing round is expected to attract fresh investment into Nigeria’s upstream petroleum sector, boost exploration activities across both producing and frontier basins, increase crude oil and gas reserves, and support the country’s drive to grow production and government revenue.
It also underscores the regulator’s commitment to implementing a transparent, competitive and investor-friendly licensing regime under the Petroleum Industry Act.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has retained all key monetary policy parameters following the conclusion of its two-day meeting on July 21, 2026, on Tuesday, maintaining its tight monetary policy stance to curb inflation and support macroeconomic stability.
According to the Governor of the apex bank, Mr Yemi Cardoso, who chaired the committee, the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), which serves as the benchmark interest rate, remains at 26.50 per cent. The MPC also retained the asymmetric corridor around the MPR at +50 basis points and -450 basis points.
In addition, the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) for commercial banks was left unchanged at 45.00 per cent, while the CRR for merchant banks remains at 16.00 per cent. The committee also retained the CRR on non-Treasury Single Account (Non-TSA) public sector deposits at 75.00 per cent, with the liquidity ratio at 30.00 per cent.
The decision reflects the apex bank’s continued commitment to containing inflationary pressures through a restrictive monetary policy while safeguarding the resilience of Nigeria’s financial system amid ongoing macroeconomic adjustments.
By keeping all policy tools unchanged, the MPC signalled its intention to continue managing excess liquidity in the banking sector and maintain stability in financial markets.
The move is also expected to provide greater policy certainty for investors and businesses monitoring the country’s monetary policy direction.
The latest decision also means borrowing costs are likely to remain elevated in the near term as the central bank continues to prioritise price stability over monetary easing.
Analysts had expected the CBN committee to retain the rate after Nigeria’s headline inflation came in at 15.91 per cent as of June 2026, marking a slight decline from 15.93 per cent in May.
However, even as overall price growth has moderated significantly compared to previous periods, food inflation remains a persistent challenge, accelerating to 17.52 per cent in June.
