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Nigeria’s Inflation for April to Hit 14%—FDC Analysts

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By Modupe Gbadeyanka

Last month, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced that inflation rate in Nigeria for the month of March 2020 increased to 12.26 percent.

One of the reasons for the rise was the continuous spike in the price of food items at the market caused by the border closure.

On March 29, 2020, President Muhammadu Buhari, in a nationwide broadcast, announced a lockdown of Lagos, Abuja and Ogun State to control the spread of Coronavirus in the country.

However, this did not affect the inflation rate for the month as pointed out by the stats office, which said in its report that “the lockdown in Abuja, Lagos and Ogun states and various major disruptions in normal economic activity in several states since then, started in April 2020 and accordingly would not have any major impact on March 2020 inflation which this report focuses on.”

The lockdown was only lifted on Monday, May 4, 2020 and during the period the movement cessation lasted, only businesses rendering essential services were allowed to operate, disrupting supply chain even for some food items, which were part of the essentials allowed to open.

Last month, Business Post reported that members of the Catfish and Allied Fish Farmers Association of Nigeria (CAFFAN) urged federal government to grant them special movement permit for the transportation of fish and its products from various fish farms to areas of need within the country.

National President of CAFFAN, Mr Rotimi Oloye, had said, “The inability of fish farmers to have access to their farms would have a multiplier effect across the fish value chain.”

According to him, this special permit was necessary to curb losses in the fish farming value chain during the lockdown declared by government in Lagos, Ogun and Abuja.

With the adverse event of lockdown in the three places, analysts at Financial Derivates Company (FDC) have said inflation rate in the month of April 2020 will likely jump by 1.74 percent.

In the company’s latest edition of Unity Bank Digest, it was disclosed that the lockdown induced by the the COVID-19 pandemic will probably lead the inflation to an eighth consecutive month rise to 14 percent.

“Headline inflation rose marginally to 12.26 percent (in March) from 12.20 percent in February.

“The slight uptick was mainly due to the base year effects of the border closure and the implementation of the new VAT rate (7.5 percent).

“March inflation figures did not reflect the adverse effect of the lockdown as the directive took full effect in April.

“As a result of the lockdown, businesses were shutdown, supply chains disrupted and panic buying commenced.

“On average, some domestic commodities prices spiked by over 50 percent.

“In all, it is expected that inflationary pressures will intensify and headline inflation for April could spike to 14 percent,” the analysts said.

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

Economy

How Investor Confidence Is Reshaping Africa’s Digital Business Landscape

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Digital Business Landscape

Africa’s business environment is undergoing a quiet but significant transformation. Over the past few years, investor confidence in African-focused digital companies has grown steadily, driven by stronger business fundamentals, improved technology infrastructure, and a deeper understanding of local markets. What was once viewed as a high-risk frontier is increasingly seen as a long-term growth opportunity with scalable returns.

This shift is evident in the types of startups attracting capital today. Investors are backing platforms that combine technology, recurring revenue models, and cross-border appeal—signaling a new phase in how digital businesses are built and funded across the continent.

The Evolution of Venture Capital in Africa

Early venture capital activity in Africa was largely experimental. Funding rounds were modest, timelines were short, and expectations focused on proof of concept rather than long-term scale. Today, the narrative has changed. Investors are deploying larger checks and looking beyond survival metrics toward sustainable growth, operational efficiency, and regional expansion.

Digital-first companies are particularly attractive because they can scale without heavy physical infrastructure. With mobile penetration rising and digital payments becoming more common, African startups now have access to broader audiences than ever before. This scalability has become a key selling point for investors seeking exposure to emerging markets without excessive operational complexity.

Why Digital Platforms Are Drawing Increased Attention

One notable trend is growing investment interest in digital entertainment and online platforms. These businesses benefit from high engagement, repeat usage, and diverse monetization opportunities. Unlike traditional industries, digital platforms can adapt quickly to consumer behavior and expand into new markets with relatively low marginal cost.

Recent investment activity reflects this shift. A clear example is the funding momentum around winna casino, which highlights how investors are backing tech-enabled platforms positioned for global reach rather than local limitation.

The significance of such deals goes beyond the individual company. They point to a broader willingness by investors to support African-linked digital businesses operating at the intersection of technology, finance, and entertainment.

Technology as a Driver of Business Scalability

Technology is no longer just an enabler—it is the core value proposition. Businesses that leverage automation, cloud infrastructure, and data-driven decision-making are better positioned to scale efficiently. This is particularly relevant in Africa, where legacy systems can slow down traditional business models.

Digital platforms reduce friction by offering faster transactions, better user experiences, and real-time insights. From an investor’s perspective, these efficiencies translate into lower operating risk and higher growth potential. Companies that build with scalability in mind from day one are more likely to secure follow-on funding and strategic partnerships.

Africa’s Changing Perception Among Global Investors

Global investors are increasingly reassessing Africa’s role in their portfolios. Rather than viewing the continent solely through the lens of risk, many now see demographic advantage, underpenetrated markets, and long-term consumer growth.

A growing body of international business analysis supports this outlook. Forbes, for instance, has highlighted why global investors are paying closer attention to African tech and digital businesses as part of broader emerging market strategies:

This change in perception is critical. It influences not only the volume of capital flowing into Africa but also the quality—bringing in investors with longer horizons, stronger networks, and deeper operational expertise.

The Importance of Governance and Trust

Despite the optimism, capital is not deployed blindly. Investors remain highly selective, particularly when it comes to governance, compliance, and transparency. Digital businesses operating in regulated or semi-regulated spaces are expected to demonstrate strong internal controls and responsible growth strategies.

For African startups, this means that trust has become a competitive advantage. Companies that invest early in governance structures, risk management, and user protection are better positioned to attract serious institutional capital. In the long term, this focus strengthens the overall business ecosystem.

What This Means for African Entrepreneurs

For founders, the evolving investment climate presents both opportunity and responsibility. Access to capital can accelerate growth, but it also raises expectations around execution, reporting, and accountability. Investors now expect African startups to operate at global standards while maintaining local relevance.

This environment rewards entrepreneurs who think beyond short-term gains and focus on building resilient, scalable businesses. Those who can balance innovation with discipline are more likely to thrive in an increasingly competitive funding landscape.

Looking Ahead

Africa’s digital economy is entering a more mature phase. Venture capital is no longer just fueling ideas—it is shaping business models, governance practices, and long-term strategies. As investor confidence continues to grow, digital platforms that demonstrate scalability, trust, and clear value propositions will define the next chapter of Africa’s business story.

For business leaders, policymakers, and investors alike, one thing is clear: Africa’s digital transformation is not a future promise—it is already underway, and capital is following conviction.

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Economy

Dangote Refinery Seeks Naira-For-Crude Policy Expansion

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has called for the expansion of the federal government’s Naira-for-Crude policy, describing this initiative as a strong indication of support for domestic refining.

The newly appointed Managing Director of the oil facility, Mr David Bird, made this call during a press briefing at the refinery complex in Lagos, noting that the scheme has significantly contributed to stabilising the the local currency and should be expanded in Nigeria’s overall economic interest.

“I think it’s a great testimony to the level of government support that we get,” he said on Wednesday.

According to Mr Bird, between 30 and 40 per cent of the refinery’s current crude feedstock is sourced under the Naira-for-Crude arrangement, with ongoing monthly engagements between the refinery and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited to determine suitable crude grades.

“Let’s say between 30 and 40 per cent of our current crude diet is on the crude-for-naira programme. We engage with NNPC monthly on the grades to buy because there is a lot of variability in the Nigerian crude grades.

“So, we have a preference, we have a wish list, and we continue to work with government support to ensure we get the right allocations,” he explained.

Mr Bird noted that while the refinery is optimised for Nigerian crude, supply volumes fluctuate.

He said approximately 30 per cent of crude supply is obtained through the Naira-for-Crude programme, another 30 per cent from Nigerian crudes purchased on the spot market, while the remaining 40 per cent comes from international grades, adding that even at that, the refinery would welcome an expansion of the policy.

“We would always like to enhance the crude-for-naira programme. Even at that level, five cargoes a month, for example, it has contributed to the stabilisation of the naira enormously,” Bird said, in response to a question.

Mr Bird added that the refinery has the capacity to absorb additional crude volumes if allocations are increased, noting that continued engagement with NNPC and the federal government is ongoing.

“We would have the potential to take further grades if and when, and we continue to engage with NNPC and the government on further increasing that,” he said, pointing to global geopolitical uncertainties as a reason Nigeria should prioritise domestic crude supply.

“It is in the country’s interest to supply domestically, because geopolitically it’s a very volatile situation. If Venezuelan crude comes back on the market, for example, it is in Nigeria’s interest to secure an offtaker through domestic refining,” he said.

The Naira-for-Crude policy, which began in October 2024, allows local refineries to purchase crude oil from NNPC in Naira instead of US Dollars. This approach reduces pressure on foreign exchange, lowers transaction costs, stabilises the local currency, and strengthens domestic refining capacity.

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Economy

Edun Signals Interest Rate Cuts if Inflation Keeps Cooling

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Wale Edun, has said there may be cuts in the interest rate if Nigeria’s inflation keeps cooling.

Mr Edun revealed this during an interview on the sidelines of the Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week, as reported by Bloomberg.

According to Mr Edun, a sustained decline in inflation would create room for additional rate cuts, helping to reduce borrowing costs and easing the government’s debt servicing burden.

Although the Minister has no control over interest rate decisions – a primary responsibility of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), he said lower inflation and borrowing costs would free up revenue currently spent on servicing debt and improve the fiscal balance.

Mr Edun, according to Bloomberg, commended the apex bank for what he described as “excellent” progress in curbing inflation, attributing recent improvements to aggressive monetary tightening implemented over the past two years.

The CBN had more than doubled its policy rate from 2022 levels in a bid to rein in inflationary pressures, before implementing a 50 basis-point cut in September that brought the monetary policy rate to 27 per cent.

The move followed a sharp moderation in inflation from its late-2024 peak. As at November 2025, headline inflation rate eased to 14.45 per cent down from 16.05 per cent recorded in October. On a year-on-year basis, the headline inflation rate was 20.15 percentage points lower than the 34.60 per cent recorded in November 2024.

The Finance Minister also revealed that the government’s borrowing strategy would remain flexible and market-driven, with decisions on domestic and external issuances guided by pricing, timing, investor appetite, and adherence to debt limits outlined in the medium-term expenditure framework.

Mr Edun also said the Bola Tinubu-led administration is intensifying efforts to boost revenue mobilisation and reduce reliance on borrowing, particularly through structural reforms and improved efficiency in revenue collection.

He noted that the government is rolling out directives requiring ministries, departments, and agencies (MDAs) to halt cash collections and migrate fully to automated payment platforms to improve transparency and reduce leakages.

According to him, the federal government is also counting on privatisation proceeds, divestments by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC), and increased crude oil production to support budget funding.

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