Nigeria’s Inflation Surges to 26.72% in September 2023

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria’s headline inflation increased by 0.92 per cent to 26.72 per cent in September 2023 compared to 25.80 per cent in August 2023, lower than analysts’ expectations of 27.95 per cent.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday, on a year-on-year basis, the headline inflation rate was 5.94 per cent points higher compared to the rate recorded in September 2022, which was 20.77 per cent.

Meristem Securities in a research note had projected an increase to 27.95 per cent in September, triggered by the rise of food, premium motor spirit (PMS), as well as “the lingering challenges in sourcing foreign exchange (FX) and depreciating exchange rate.”

In the figures released this afternoon, the stats office said on a month-on-month basis, the headline inflation rate in September 2023 was 2.10 per cent, which was 1.08 per cent lower than the rate recorded in August 2023 at 3.18 per cent. This means that in September 2023, the rate of increase in the average price level was less than the rate of increase in the average price level in August 2023.

Giving a breakdown, it was noted that food and non-alcoholic beverages contributed 13.84 per cent to the headline index, followed by housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels with 4.47 per cent, as clothing and footwear saw a 2.04 per cent contribution.

Transport added 1.74 per cent while furnishings, household equipment and maintenance added 1.34 per cent and education saw a 1.05 per cent rise. Others like health, miscellaneous goods and services among others saw less than 1 per cent contribution, respectively.

The NBS showed that Nigeria’s food inflation rate in September 2023 was 30.64 per cent on a year-on-year basis, which was 7.30 per cent points higher compared to the rate recorded in September 2022 at 23.34 per cent.

The rise in food inflation on a year-on-year basis was caused by increases in prices of oil and fat, bread, cereals, potatoes, yam and other tubers, fish, fruit, meat, vegetables milk, cheese, and eggs.

On a month-on-month basis, the Food inflation rate in September 2023 was 2.45 per cent, this was 1.41 per cent lower compared to the rate recorded in August 2023 at 3.87 per cent. The decline in Food inflation on a month-on-month basis was caused by a fall in the rate of increase in the average prices of potatoes, yam and other tubers, bread and cereals, fruits, and fish.

The average annual rate of food inflation for the 12 months ending September 2023 over the previous 12-month average was 25.65 per cent, which was a 6.29 per cent increase from the average annual rate of change recorded in September 2022 at 19.36 per cent.

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