Business Post Contributor
By Bliss Okperan
The inflation rate in Nigeria is projected by Meristem Securities to increase by 27.95 per cent in September compared with the 25.80 per cent achieved in August 2023.
In a research note by the company’s analysts obtained by Business Post, the 2.15 per cent surge in the average prices of goods and services would be triggered by the rise of food, premium motor spirit (PMS), “the lingering challenges in sourcing foreign exchange (FX) and depreciating exchange rate.”
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is expected to release the inflation numbers on Monday afternoon.
In its projection, the investment firm said, “For September, we expect the price moderating effect of postharvest supplies of staples such as maize, yam and vegetables to begin slowing down the pace of overall price growth.”
“However, given that persisting issues linger in the agricultural value chain (coupled with the potential for higher energy prices), we believe that food inflation is likely to sustain its northward movement,” it added.
Meristem added that Nigeria’s inflation has continued its upward stream in the wake of prolonged global uncertainties, the ongoing Naira devaluation, and increased logistics and transport costs, with these factors contributing to prices of food and energy.
“Based on our assessment of formal and informal markets, the prices of food items (like rice and bread) and energy remained elevated in September.
“The impact of FX illiquidity was also significant in the FX markets (official and parallel) as the exchange rate rose above NGN1000/USD for the first time,” it stated.
It also noted that Nigeria has faced a food crisis for some months due to the invasion of Ukraine by Russia in February 2022.
According to the FAO, commodity prices in September remained largely stable as the Food index for September stood at 121.50 points versus 121.40 points in August).
