Economy
Nigeria’s Revenue Rises as Oil Trades Above $58
By Adedapo Adesanya
The funding of the 2021 budget of Nigeria received a big boost on Wednesday when crude oil, the major source of revenue for the country, traded above $58 per barrel.
The oil benchmark for the year was $40 per barrel but yesterday, the Brent crude, under which Nigeria’s oil grade is priced, appreciated by $1.07 or 1.86 per cent.
This boost was triggered by a drop in the United States inventories as well as the decision of oil allies not to make recommendations about changing their production levels.
As a result, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures appreciated by $1.03 or 1.88 per cent to sell at $55.79 per barrel at the midweek trading session.
According to a report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude oil inventory reduced by one million barrels for the last week of January.
A day earlier, the American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated crude oil inventories had fallen by 4.26 million barrels in the reporting period.
The EIA estimate compared with a build of 4.4 million barrels reported for the third week of January and analyst expectations for a modest build of 367,000 barrels.
Oil prices have been on a steady rise recently based on a high compliance rate with production cuts by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) and a weaker dollar, which made commodities cheaper for international buyers. The outlook is also bullish, with the futures price trend suggesting tighter oil supply on global markets.
Forecasts are also getting increasingly optimistic, with Goldman Sachs analysts recently saying they expected oil demand to rebound to 100 million barrels per day as soon as this year.
Also, prices also found support as the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) of the OPEC+ group wrapped up their monthly meeting on Wednesday and as expected did not make any recommendation about changing the oil production levels of the alliance.
The JMMC meeting this month was more of a formality rather than disagreements and bargaining like the previous meeting since OPEC+ decided in January how it would proceed with the production cuts for February and March.
This month, the OPEC+ alliance is easing its production cuts by just 75,000 barrels per day, of which 65,000 barrels per day will be given to Russia and another 10,000 barrels per day to Kazakhstan.
In March, Russia and Kazakhstan are set to boost their oil production by another 65,000 barrels per day and 10,000 barrels per day, respectively.
However, all other members of the pact are keeping their production levels from January with OPEC’s top producer, Saudi Arabia cut its production by an additional 1 million barrels per day beyond its quota this month and next.
So, this month’s JMMC meeting only took stock of the oil market situation and the compensation schedules for those producers who haven’t fully complied with the cuts since the deal was enacted in May 2020.
Those producers who still need to compensate for over-production have to submit their schedules by February 15.
The next JMMC meeting will be held on March 3, and this is where discussions are expected to heat up again as the OPEC+ group will have to decide on the production levels for April, and possibly beyond.
Support could also be found as the US President Joe Biden’s coronavirus rescue plan, and two of its key economic provisions, have broad support as Democrats try to push it through Congress.
The White House is reaching for a bipartisan bill as Democrats pulled a Senate majority, voting 50-49, to start a lengthy process for approving Biden’s bill with or without the opposing Republicans support. The goal is a passage by March.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria’s crude oil production slipped slightly to 1.422 million barrels per day in December 2025 from 1.436 million barrels per day in November, according to data from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
OPEC in its Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), quoting primary sources, noted that the oil output was below the 1.5 million barrels per day quota for the nation.
The OPEC data indicate that Nigeria last met its production quota in July 2025, with output remaining below target from August through December.
Quarterly figures reveal a consistent decline across 2025; Q1: 1.468 million barrels per day, Q2: 1.481 million barrels per day, Q3: 1.444 million barrels per day, and 1.42 million barrels per day in Q4.
However, the cartel acknowledged that despite the gradual decrease in oil production, Nigeria’s non-oil sector grew in the second half of last year.
The organisation noted that “Nigeria’s economy showed resilience in 2H25, posting sound growth despite global challenges, as strength in the non-oil economy partly offset slower growth in the oil sector.”
According to the report, cooling inflation, a stronger Naira, lower refined fuel imports, and stronger remittance inflows are improving domestic and external conditions.
“A stronger naira, easing food prices due to the harvest, and a cooling in core inflation also point to gradually fading underlying pressures”, the report noted.
It forecast inflation to decelerate further on the back of past monetary tightening, currency strength, and seasonal harvest effects, though it noted that monetary policy remains restrictive.
“Seasonally adjusted real GDP growth at market prices moderated to stand at 3.9%, y-o-y, in 3Q25, down from 4.2% in 2Q25. Nonetheless, this is still a healthy and robust growth level, supported by strengthening non-oil activity, with growth in that segment rising by 0.3 percentage points to 3.9%, y-o-y. Inflation continued to decelerate in November, with headline CPI falling for an eighth straight month to 14.5%, y-o-y, following 16.1%, y-o-y, in October”.
OPEC, however, stated that while preserving recent disinflation gains is important, the persistently high policy rate – implying real interest rates of around 12% – risks weighing on aggregate demand in the near term.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Thursday revealed that inflation rate for December 2025 stood at 15.15 per cent compared with the 14.45 per cent it put the previous month.
However, it recalculated the November 2025 inflation rate at 17.33 per cent after using a 12-month index reference period where the average consumer price index (CPI) for the 12 months of 2024 is equated to 100. This is a departure from the single-month index reference period, in which December 2024 was set to 100, which would have produced an artificial spike in the December 2025 year-on-year inflation rate.
The NBS had earlier informed stakeholders a few days ago that it was changing its methodology for inflation to reflect the economic reality. This is coming after the organisation changed the base year from 2009 to 2024 earlier in 2025.
In its report released today, the stats agency explained that this process was in line with international best practice as contained in the Consumer Price Index Inter-national Monetary Fund (IMF) Manual, specifically in Section 9.125 and the ECOWAS Harmonised CPI Manual, which address index reference period maximisation, following a rebasing exercise.
On a month-on-month basis, the headline inflation rate in December 2025 was 0.54 per cent, lower than the 1.22 per cent recorded in November 2025.
The NBS also revealed that on a year-on-year basis, the urban inflation rate for last month stood at 14.85 per cent versus 37.29 per cent in December 2024, while on a month-on-month basis, it jumped to 0.99 per cent from 0.95 per cent in the preceding month.
As for the rural inflation rate in December 2025, it stood at 14.56 per cent on a year-on-year basis from 32.47 per cent in December 2024, and on a month-on-month basis, it declined to -0.55 per cent from 1.88 per cent in November 2025.
It was also disclosed that food inflation rate in December 2025 was 10.84 per cent on a year-on-year basis from 39.84 per cent in December 2024, while on a month-on-month basis, it declined to -0.36 per cent from 1.13 per cent in November 2025 (1.13%).
This was attributed to the rate of decrease in the average prices of tomatoes, garri, eggs, potatoes, carrots, millet, vegetables, plantain, beans, wheat grain, grounded pepper, fresh onions and others.
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
Companies operating in Lagos State have been reminded of their obligations to file their annual tax returns for the 2025 financial year on or before January 31, 2026.
This reminder was given by the Lagos State Internal Revenue Service (LIRS) in a statement made available to Business Post on Thursday.
In the notice signed by the chairman of the tax agency, Mr Ayodele Subair, it was stressed that filing the tax returns is an obligation as stipulated in the Nigeria Tax Administration Act (NTAA) 2025.
He explained that employers are required to file detailed returns on emoluments and compensation paid to their employees, as well as payments made to their service providers, vendors and consultants, and to ensure that all applicable taxes due for the year 2025 are fully remitted.
Mr Subair emphasised that filing of annual returns is a mandatory legal obligation, and warned that failure to comply will result in statutory sanctions, including administrative penalties, as prescribed under the new tax law.
According to Section 14 of the NTAA, employers are required to file detailed annual returns of all emoluments paid to employees, including taxes deducted and remitted to relevant tax authorities. Such returns must be filed and submitted not later than January 31 each year.
“Employers must prioritise the timely filing of their annual income tax returns. Compliance should be part of our everyday business practice.
“Early and accurate filing not only ensures adherence to the law as required by the Nigerian Constitution, but also supports effective revenue tracking, which is important to Lagos State’s fiscal planning and sustainability,” he noted.
The LIRS chief disclosed that electronic filing via the organisation’s eTax platform remains the only approved and acceptable mode of filing, as manual submissions have been completely phased out. This measure, he said, is aimed at simplifying and standardising tax administration processes in the state.
Employers are therefore required to submit their annual tax returns exclusively through the LIRS eTax portal: https://etax.lirs.net.
Dr Subair described the channel as secure, user-friendly, accessible 24/7, and designed to provide employers with a convenient and efficient means of fulfilling their tax obligations, advising firms to ensure that the tax identification number (Tax ID) of all employees is correctly captured in their filings, noting that employees without a Tax ID must generate one promptly to avoid disruptions during the filing process.
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