Adedapo Adesanya
By Adedapo Adesanya
The funding of the 2021 budget of Nigeria received a big boost on Wednesday when crude oil, the major source of revenue for the country, traded above $58 per barrel.
The oil benchmark for the year was $40 per barrel but yesterday, the Brent crude, under which Nigeria’s oil grade is priced, appreciated by $1.07 or 1.86 per cent.
This boost was triggered by a drop in the United States inventories as well as the decision of oil allies not to make recommendations about changing their production levels.
As a result, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures appreciated by $1.03 or 1.88 per cent to sell at $55.79 per barrel at the midweek trading session.
According to a report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude oil inventory reduced by one million barrels for the last week of January.
A day earlier, the American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated crude oil inventories had fallen by 4.26 million barrels in the reporting period.
The EIA estimate compared with a build of 4.4 million barrels reported for the third week of January and analyst expectations for a modest build of 367,000 barrels.
Oil prices have been on a steady rise recently based on a high compliance rate with production cuts by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) and a weaker dollar, which made commodities cheaper for international buyers. The outlook is also bullish, with the futures price trend suggesting tighter oil supply on global markets.
Forecasts are also getting increasingly optimistic, with Goldman Sachs analysts recently saying they expected oil demand to rebound to 100 million barrels per day as soon as this year.
Also, prices also found support as the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) of the OPEC+ group wrapped up their monthly meeting on Wednesday and as expected did not make any recommendation about changing the oil production levels of the alliance.
The JMMC meeting this month was more of a formality rather than disagreements and bargaining like the previous meeting since OPEC+ decided in January how it would proceed with the production cuts for February and March.
This month, the OPEC+ alliance is easing its production cuts by just 75,000 barrels per day, of which 65,000 barrels per day will be given to Russia and another 10,000 barrels per day to Kazakhstan.
In March, Russia and Kazakhstan are set to boost their oil production by another 65,000 barrels per day and 10,000 barrels per day, respectively.
However, all other members of the pact are keeping their production levels from January with OPEC’s top producer, Saudi Arabia cut its production by an additional 1 million barrels per day beyond its quota this month and next.
So, this month’s JMMC meeting only took stock of the oil market situation and the compensation schedules for those producers who haven’t fully complied with the cuts since the deal was enacted in May 2020.
Those producers who still need to compensate for over-production have to submit their schedules by February 15.
The next JMMC meeting will be held on March 3, and this is where discussions are expected to heat up again as the OPEC+ group will have to decide on the production levels for April, and possibly beyond.
Support could also be found as the US President Joe Biden’s coronavirus rescue plan, and two of its key economic provisions, have broad support as Democrats try to push it through Congress.
The White House is reaching for a bipartisan bill as Democrats pulled a Senate majority, voting 50-49, to start a lengthy process for approving Biden’s bill with or without the opposing Republicans support. The goal is a passage by March.
