Economy
NSE: Analysts Expect Sell-Offs to Persist This Week
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
The Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) has struggled to keep its head above water since MTN Nigeria Plc was hit with news of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) raiding its head office in Lagos to investigate how it was listed on the local bourse.
When the telco joined the Nigerian stock exchange on May 16, 2019, the market was booming, but that news story on May 24, 2019, gradually brought an end to the honeymoon.
Since then, the market has been battling hard to escape from the tight grip of the bears without much success.
As the market begins trading this week, analysts have said investors should not expect any miracle to occur in the absence of any positive event to trigger the return of the bulls.
This week, precisely on Wednesday, June 12, 2019, President Muhammadu Buhari is expected to address the nation, where he should roll out his plans for the next four years in office.
On May 29, 2019, when he was sworn-in for another four years in office, he did not give any speech as expected, but shifted it to this week, which is now to be celebrated as Democracy Day with a public holiday.
During trading last week, profit taking activities dominated the stock market and if nothing positive happens this week, this trend is expected to continue.
This view was echoed by analysts at Cowry Asset, who said, “In the new week, in the absence of major stimuli, we expect sustained bearish pressure on the local equities market as investor apathy pervades the bourse, resulting in general sell offs amid flight to safety.”
Sharing this same sentiment were those at United Capital Research, who said the bears will maintain dominance, though the bulls will attempt to bellow so as to attract attention of investors.
“Looking ahead, we expect market performance to remain lukewarm in the absence of a catalyst. However, we do not rule out the possibility of intermittent gains driven by bargain hunters,” they said.
For analysts at Cordros Research, “We reiterate our view that the blend of a compelling valuation story, together with positive macroeconomic picture leaves scope for market recovery in the medium term. However, we guide investors to tread the cautious trading path in the short term.”
Those at Afrinvest Research said, “Although we expect bargain hunting on stocks which have recently suffered losses next week, we believe sentiment would remain bearish in the absence of any major market catalyst.”
Analysts at Business Post are of the opinion that investors will want to trade cautiously this week and watch how things will turn out, especially with the issue between Oando and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
“We do not expect heavy transactions this week as investors mainly look forward to President Buhari’s June 12 speech.
“They will also want to know what becomes of the Oando saga with SEC especially with the AGM already fixed for Tuesday.
“With all these in mind, we do not expect the market to close positive this week as investors will want to continue to take profit and watch events from a safer region.
“However, as we have always advised, this is the best time to mop up some sound stocks presently trading at low prices, especially those that could give holders interim dividends in a month’s time,” analysts at Business Post said.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC) has expressed concern that Nigerian consumers have yet to benefit from lower prices despite the recent sharp decline in global crude oil prices.
Business Post reports that crude prices currently trade around $69 and $71 per barrel in the international market.
The commission stated on Sunday that following a market surveillance exercise, the review of gantry prices from local refiners, marketers, depot operators and retail outlets showed only token reductions, not aligned with the steep drop in international crude prices.
The chief executive of the agency, Mr Tunji Bello, said that though the FCCPC does not set petroleum prices in a deregulated market, it is mandated by the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Act, 2018, to promote competition and protect consumers from unfair business practices.
“To be clear, the commission does not regulate or approve petroleum prices in a deregulated downstream market. Our responsibility under the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Act, 2018, is to promote competitive markets, prevent anti-competitive conduct, and protect consumers from unfair, deceptive and exploitative business practices,” Mr Bello said.
“We are concerned that while dealers often respond swiftly by hiking pump prices whenever crude prices rise, it is curious that it is taking forever for consumers to benefit significantly when crude prices fall. Competitive markets must work fairly in both directions,” he added.
The organisation noted that crude prices fell to about $73 per barrel after a recent ceasefire between the United States and Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, down from a peak near $120 per barrel in April.
During the April–May price spike, petrol prices rose to between N1,350 and N1,500 while diesel traded around N2,000. In February, PMS averaged between N800 and N900. Presently, average retail PMS nationwide is about N1,200, with some local refiners listing gantry prices between N1,025 and N1,075.
The FCCPC acknowledged that domestic fuel prices are affected by multiple commercial factors, including refining costs, foreign-exchange movements, logistics, financing and distribution expenses, but said competitive market dynamics should have passed more of the recent international cost declines to consumers.
“Market liberalisation does not diminish businesses’ obligations to compete fairly or consumers’ right to fair treatment,” Mr Bello added. “Where credible evidence indicates conduct that undermines competition, exploits consumers or otherwise contravenes the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Act, the Commission will investigate and take appropriate enforcement action,” urging consumers to report suspected anti-competitive conduct, misleading pricing or other unfair market behaviour via its established complaint channels.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Four securities weakened the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by 1.95 per cent on Friday, erasing N41.17 billion from the bourse, which had its market capitalisation at N2.567 trillion compared with the previous session’s N2.618 trillion.
In the same vein, the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) decreased at the close of business by 85.28 points to 4,277.07 points from 4,362.32 points.
The price decliners were led by 11 Plc, which gave up N20.50 to sell at N200.50 per share compared with the preceding day’s N221.00 per share, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc dropped N16.94 to close at N155.20 per unit versus Thursday’s closing price of N172.14 per unit, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc went down by N2.11 to N84.68 per share from N86.79 per share, and Afriland Properties Plc lost 11 Kobo to end at N16.74 per unit, in contrast to the N16.85 per unit it closed a day earlier.
During the trading day, the value of transactions jumped by 172.1 per cent to N29.9 million from the preceding session’s N10.9 million, and the volume of trades soared by 136.5 per cent to 955,096 units from the previous 403,901 units, while the number of deals went down by 11.4 per cent to 31 deals from 35 deals.
Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc remained the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units valued at N8.4 billion, followed by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc with 2.3 billion units worth N6.5 billion, and CSCS Plc with 68.6 million units sold for N4.7 billion.
GNI Plc also ended the session as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units exchanged for N8.4 billion, trailed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units traded for N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units transacted for N415.7 million.
By Dipo Olowookere
The last trading session of this week on the floor of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited ended on a negative note, with a 0.66 per cent loss on Friday.
This was influenced by sustained selling pressure and cautious trading, which forced investors into profit-taking.
Data obtained by Business Post showed that the energy sector fell by 4.66 per cent, the insurance counter dipped by 2.23 per cent, the consumer goods index depreciated by 0.96 per cent, and the banking segment shed 0.28 per cent, while the industrial goods space remained unchanged.
At the close of business, the All-Share Index (ASI) of Nigeria’s stock exchange went down by 1,531.81 points to 232,049.02 points from 233,580.83 points, and the market capitalisation dropped N983 billion to settle at N148.905 trillion compared with Thursday’s N149.888 trillion.
Aradel was the worst-performing equity after it lost 10.00 per cent to close at N1,417.50. International Energy Insurance slipped by 9.95 per cent to N5.79, Trans-Nationwide Express depreciated by 9.89 per cent to N3.28, eTranzact crashed by 9.79 per cent to N14.75, and UPDC slumped by 9.72 per cent to N28.12.
The best-performing equity for the day was Universal Insurance, which gained 6.32 per cent to close at N1.01, McNichols grew by 5.52 per cent to N8.60, Linkage Assurance expanded by 4.67 per cent to N1.57, NGX Group appreciated by 4.35 per cent to N120.00, and Transcorp increased by 3.62 per cent to N41.50.
As look at the activity level indicated that investors traded 388.7 million stocks worth N18.4 billion in 44,631 deals compared with the 393.7 million stocks valued at N19.2 billion executed in 45,813 deals a day earlier, representing a decline in the trading volume, value, and number of deals by 1.27 per cent, 4.17 per cent, and 2.58 per cent, respectively.
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