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Economy

Oil at $85 Could Boost Nigeria’s External Balance Account—Bloomberg

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oil production rig

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria has been identified as one of the winners of an oil windfall following the US and Israel’s war on Iran.

According to Bloomberg Economics, the rise in prices will improve the current account balance of just three sub-Saharan African economies.

Bloomberg Economics’ Ms Yvonne Mhango wrote in a report on Thursday that if oil stays at about $85 a barrel, Angola, Nigeria and Ghana will see their current account balance improve, while the Democratic Republic of Congo, South Africa and Kenya will be among the worst-hit.

“For most African economies, higher oil prices mean weaker currencies and renewed inflationary pressure, which could put rate hikes back on the table,” she said.

According to the analyst, Nigeria, which is Africa’s largest oil producer, will not only gain from crude sales but from fuel exports.

Bloomberg Economics data showed that Nigeria’s current account balance could benefit by as much as 2.3 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP), second only to Angola’s 3.3 per cent and Ghana’s 0.2 per cent.

Already, the 650,000-barrel-a-day Dangote oil refinery has raised the prospect of sending more product to Europe if the price is right.

Dangote is ​offering up to 44,000 ​metric tons of jet fuel for loading March 20-22, ​as well as ​at least 40,000 tons of ‌gasoil ⁠with a maximum sulphur content of 50 parts per million ​for ​loading ⁠March 15-30.

However, countries like Africa’s largest economy – South Africa – may face challenges if India and Oman, two of its biggest fuel suppliers, cut down on exports. It may see a -1.0 per cent hit to its current account balance.

South African consumers are bracing for fuel costs to increase in April, according to Central Energy Fund data, while traders moved to price in a chance of an interest-rate hike later this month.

Following US and Israeli strikes on Iran over the weekend and retaliatory moves by the Islamic Republic, global crude prices have adjusted sharply.

The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow shipping lane between Iran and Oman, through which roughly a fifth of global oil supply normally passes, has been blocked completely by Iran.

As of press time, Brent crude, which Nigeria prices its crudes is trading up at 2.3 per cent at $83.23. Nigerian crude grades, Brass River and Qua Iboe, are selling at $87 per barrel.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

Investors Gain N2.281trn in One Day as Appetite for Stocks Soars

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exposure to Nigerian stocks

By Dipo Olowookere

The local equity market maintained the bullish momentum on Wednesday, further appreciating by 1.69 per cent at the close of business.

The sustained appetite for stocks buoyed the growth reported by the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited yesterday, although the buying pressure was on the energy and banking sectors, which gained 4.24 per cent and 3.15 per cent, respectively.

Business Post observed that selling pressure caused the insurance index to give up 1.33 per cent, the consumer goods industry to lose 0.20 per cent, and the industrial goods counter to shrink by 0.09 per cent.

But when trading activities came to an end, the All-Share Index (ASI) soared by 3,486.03 points to 209,317.41 points from 205,831.38 points, and the market capitalisation surged by N2.281 trillion to N134.773 trillion from N132.492 trillion.

The market breadth index was negative at midweek after the bourse ended with 35 price gainers and 37 price losers, showing weak investor sentiment.

Airtel Africa topped the advancers’ log after it chalked up 10.00 per cent to trade at N2,746.70. Aradel also appreciated by 10.00 per cent to N1,406.90, Ecobank grew by 9.98 per cent to N55.65, Trans-Nationwide Express improved by 9.89 per cent to N5.00, and Fortis Global Insurance jumped 9.82 per cent to N1.23.

Conversely, Austin Laz lost 9.77 per cent to close at N3.60, John Holt depreciated by 9.72 per cent to N13.00, CWG dropped 7.22 per cent to settle at N21.20, Conoil gave up 6.80 per cent to sell for N190.50, and Omatek decreased by 5.48 per cent to N2.07.

Zenith Bank led the activity with 73.3 million shares worth N8.8 billion, Tantalizers traded 56.5 million equities valued at N220.4 million, UBA sold 49.9 million stocks for N2.3 billion, Access Holdings exchanged 38.1 million shares worth N1.0 billion, and Secure Electronic Technology transacted 32.7 million equities valued at N31.7 million.

In general, investors bought and sold 706.4 million stocks worth N41.9 billion in 46,231 deals during the session versus the 569.3 million stocks valued at N32.3 billion traded in 45,777 deals on Tuesday, indicating an improvement in the trading volume, value, and number of deals by 24.08 per cent, 29.72 per cent, and 0.99 per cent, respectively.

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Economy

Crude Oil Slightly Gains on Supply Fears Despite Trump Remarks

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Cawthorne crude oil

By Adedapo Adesanya

Crude oil marginally appreciated on Wednesday as ongoing worries about supply disruptions offset ​comments by US President Donald Trump that the war in Iran could be over soon.

Brent futures rose 14 cents or 0.1 per cent to $94.93 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures gained one cent to settle at $91.29 per barrel.

It was reported that Iran could consider allowing ships to ‌sail freely through the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz without risk of attack as part of proposals it has offered in negotiations with the United States, providing a deal is clinched to prevent renewed conflict.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards declared the strait closed more than 40 days ago, ​effectively shutting in about 20 per cent of global oil and LNG shipments. Transit through the waterway remains at only a fraction of the 130-plus daily crossings before the ​war.

Also, the US has enacted a blockade of shipping leaving Iranian ports that its military said has completely halted trade going in and out of the country by sea.

US Treasury Secretary Mr Scott Bessent said the US will not be renewing the waivers that allowed the purchase of some Iranian and Russian oil without facing sanctions.

Finance ministers from almost ​a dozen countries, led by Britain, called on the US, Israel and Iran to implement their ceasefire in full and said the conflict would weigh on the global economy ​and markets even if it was resolved soon.

Meanwhile, President Trump threatened to fire Jerome Powell from his separate seat on the US central bank’s Board of Governors if the Federal Reserve chair does not vacate that post as well when his term as chairman ends on May 15.

Analysts worry that involving more politics in interest rate decisions could reduce the Federal Reserve’s ability to control inflation. President Trump wants the US central bank to cut rates, which would reduce consumer costs and could boost economic growth and demand for oil.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects at least a dozen countries to seek new loan programmes to cope with surging ​energy prices and supply ⁠chain disruptions caused by the Middle East war.

Japan said it would establish a financial framework worth about $10 billion to help Asian countries procure energy resources and bolster their stockpiles.

Crude oil inventories in the US decreased by 900,000 barrels during the week ending April 10, according to new data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released on Wednesday. This follows figures by the American Petroleum Institute (API) that were released a day earlier, which reported that crude oil inventories saw a build of 6.10 million barrels in the period.

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Economy

Wale Edun’s Claims of 1.8mbpd Crude Output Contrast Official Data

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wale edun

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Minister of Finance, Mr Wale Edun, says Nigeria’s crude oil production has risen to 1.8 million barrels ​a day, contrasting with available production data.

Speaking in an interview with Reuters on Wednesday on ⁠the sidelines of the International Monetary ​Fund and World Bank Group spring ​meetings in Washington D.C., the Minister said the current oil output would generate fiscal breathing space that will allow the government to support vulnerable ​households as it ploughs ahead with ​reforms.

Nigeria, which is a member of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), is Africa’s largest oil producer.

Mr Edun said rising crude production was positive for Nigeria’s revenue, foreign exchange ​and the country’s fiscal situation.

“It gives us that extra fiscal space ‌within ⁠which to look at … helping the vulnerable households at this time,” he told the publication, noting that support would be targeted, adding “there is ​no thought ​of any ⁠return or retardation to broad untargeted subsidies.”

Mr Edun also said the Bola Tinubu-led administration was also ​committed to continuing its reform ​programme.

“Nigeria is in a position where the resilience that has been built in ⁠the ​economy is actually very ​obvious for all to see,” he said.

Despite the 1.8 million barrels per day figure claim, Business Post reports that production data for March 2026 from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) shows that Nigeria attained 1.546 million barrels per day, made up of 1.382 million barrels per day of crude, 42,809 barrels per day of blended condensate and 120,442 barrels per day of unblended condensate.

The average crude production represents 92 per cent of the OPEC quota, which is fixed at 1.5 million barrels per day.

NUPRC Nigeria crude output March 2026

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