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Oil Cut Violation: Nigeria Gets December Deadline

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nigeria buhari praying

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria and other oil-producing countries that exceeded their crude production quotas in recent months have been given till December 2020 to compensate, rather than having to conform by the end of September.

This decision was taken at the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting of a coalition of oil producers on Thursday. The team agreed to extend the deadline by three months.

“The JMMC supported, and recommended, to the OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting, the request of several underperforming participating countries in the Declaration of Cooperation to extend the compensation period till the end of December 2020, after pledging that they will fully compensate for their overproduction,” a statement issued after the meeting said.

The committee of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known as (OPEC+), also made no recommendation to change existing quota as it pushed for full compliance.

The committee said compliance with agreed cuts stood at 102 per cent in August, including Mexico, which is no longer formally participating in the cuts. OPEC+ reached 101 per cent conformity last month without Mexico.

In August, Nigeria, alongside fellow laggard, Iraq, made efforts to compensate for their overproduction but due to past overproduction and underperformance, the country will now be able to extend the period of compensation till the end of the year.

OPEC+ agreed in April to cut their output by a record 9.7 million barrels per day in May and June to offset a slump in demand and prices caused by the coronavirus crisis. The deal was later extended to July. From August, oil cuts were reviewed downward to 7.7 million barrels per day until the end of the year.

Thursday’s meeting came against the backdrop of worsening demand forecasts as indicated in its monthly report. The organisation said it expects the global oil demand to fall by 9.46 million barrels per day this year, more than the 9.06 million barrels per day decline expected a month ago.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

Naira Opens Week Stronger at N1,374/1$ in Official Market

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Naira-Dollar exchange rate gap

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Naira appreciated against the US Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) by 54 Kobo or 0.04 per cent on Monday, May 25, to trade at N1,374.92/$1 compared to last Friday’s value of N1,375.46/$1.

However, it further depreciated against the Pound Sterling in the official market during the session by N6.01 to sell for N1,855.73/£1 versus the preceding session’s N1,849.72/£1 and lost N158.02 against the Euro to close at N1,755.06/€1, in contrast to the N1,590.04/€1 it was traded last Friday.

In the same vein, the Nigerian Naira weakened against the United States Dollar at the GTBank FX counter yesterday by N2 to quote at N1,383/$1 versus N1,381/$1, and gained N5 in the parallel market to settle at N1,385/$1 compared with the previous rate of N1,390/$1.

The performance of the domestic currency comes as the external reserves inched higher to $48.72 billion, indicating a complex mix of sustained FX demand pressures and modest reserve accretion.

The movement in the FX market underscores the continued tension between demand-side pressure and policy-driven attempts to stabilise the naira.

While recent monetary tightening measures by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) have helped to moderate extreme volatility, market participants are struggling to navigate a landscape shaped by intermittent dollar inflows, import-related demand and shifting investor sentiment.

As for the cryptocurrency market, most tokens were up amid optimism of a near-term US-Iran peace deal, as Iranian negotiators arrived in Doha, Qatar, for talks.

The Strait of Hormuz has been largely blockaded since the US and Israel struck Iran on February 28, though traffic has partially resumed in recent days. The agenda would include the reopening as well as uranium control.

TRON (TRX) rose by 1.8 per cent to $0.3714, Cardano (ADA) added 1.2 per cent to trade at $0.2444, Bitcoin (BTC) improved by 0.9 per cent to $77,283.62, Binance Coin (BNB) jumped 0.8 per cent to $661.30, and Ripple (XRP) increased by 0.8 per cent to $1.35.

Further, Ethereum (ETH) grew by 0.7 per cent to $2,018.82, Solana (SOL) expanded by 0.6 per cent to $85.37, and Dogecoin (DOGE) appreciated by 0.6 per cent to $0.1001, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 apiece.

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Economy

Oil Prices Crash 7% on Hopes of US-Iran Peace Deal

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Oil Prices fall

By Adedapo Adesanya

Oil prices fell nearly 7 per cent on Monday as optimism grew that the United States and ‌Iran were moving closer to a peace deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude futures were down by $7.24 or almost 7 per cent to $96.30 a barrel, and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures decreased by $6.30 or 6.5 per cent to trade ​at $90.88 per barrel.

Comments by President Donald Trump that diplomatic negotiations with Iran are advancing eased market fears of severe energy supply disruptions due to the Middle East conflict.

This is as a top negotiator of Iran, and its foreign minister was in Doha ​for talks with Qatar’s prime minister on a potential deal with the US to end the three-month-old ⁠war

Recently, both countries have downplayed expectations for an immediate peace agreement to end their three-month-old war, backing away from claims of an imminent breakthrough.

President Trump later revealed that he has instructed negotiators not to rush the process, asserting that the US naval blockade on Iranian ports will remain in full effect until a finalised accord is certified and signed.

Also, the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has affirmed that the US government will exhaust diplomatic channels, also warning that it will handle Iran in “another way” if a good agreement cannot be secured, hinting at a potential return to active war.

The deal outlines a process to fully reopen the vital global shipping lane without tolls, resolving the global energy crunch. Iran would receive targeted sanctions relief and the gradual unfreezing of up to $20 billion to $25 billion in assets currently held in foreign banks.

Even if ⁠a peace deal is reached, analysts expect a return to normal oil flows through the strait will take months, while damaged oil and gas facilities are repaired. There is currently a supply shortfall of up to 11 million ​barrels per day of crude oil that does not go away immediately, even if a deal is reached soon.

Ship-tracking data showed three Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) tankers passed through the ​strait in recent days, heading to Pakistan, China and India, as well as a supertanker with Iraqi crude for China after being stranded for nearly three months.

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Economy

Nigeria Records 3.89% GDP Growth in Q1 2026

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4.03% GDP Growth

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria’s economic growth rate eased in the first quarter of 2026 to 3.89 per cent year-on-year, as a slowdown in the oil sector offset gains recorded in the non-oil sector.

The economy, measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP), slowed in the first three months of this year from the 4.07 per cent recorded in the previous quarter (Q4 2025), according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday. However, it was higher than the 3.13 per cent recorded in the first quarter of 2025.

In the first quarter of 2026, Nigeria recorded an average daily oil production of 1.55 million barrels per day, lower than 1.62 million barrels per day in the same quarter of 2025 and lower than the 1.58 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025.

The real growth of the oil sector was 2.57 (year-on-year) in Q1 2026, indicating an increase of 0.70 per cent compared with the 1.87 per cent in the corresponding quarter of 2025.

However, growth decreased by 4.22 per cent compared to 6.79 per cent in Q4 2025, and on a quarter-on-quarter basis, the oil sector recorded a growth rate of 9.31 per cent.

For the non-oil sector, it contributed 96.08 per cent to the nation’s GDP between January and March 2026, versus 96.03 per cent in the same period of last year and lower than 97.13 per cent in the fourth quarter of last year.

During the quarter under review, agriculture grew by 3.15 per cent. The growth of the industry sector stood at 3.50 per cent versus 3.42 per cent in the first quarter of last year, while the services sector recorded a growth of 4.31 per cent, in contrast to 4.33 per cent in the same quarter of 2025.

In terms of share of the GDP, the services sector contributed 57.73 per cent compared to 57.50 per cent in the first quarter of 2025.

In the quarter under review, aggregate GDP at basic price stood at N110.79 trillion in nominal terms, higher than N94.1 trillion in the first quarter of 2025 by 17.79 per cent.

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