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Economy

Oil Jumps Amid Oversupply, Russian Sanctions Worries

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Oil Licensing Round

By Adedapo Adesanya

Oil gained about $1 on Tuesday on the impact of the latest US sanctions on Russian oil and the optimism over a potential end to the U.S. government shutdown, although oversupply concerns limited gains.

Brent crude increased its value by $1.10 or 1.72 per cent to $65.16 per barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed 91 cents or 1.51 per cent to $61.04 a barrel.

Investors continued to assess the fallout from the US sanctions on Russia, and their impact on both crude oil and refined fuel markets.

Russia’s Lukoil declared force majeure at an Iraqi oilfield it operates, marking the biggest fallout yet from the sanctions imposed last month.

Restricted fuel exports due to the sanctions are propping up oil prices in the face of a crude oil glut.

Following the October 22 US sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft, Iraq has stopped all cash and crude payments to Lukoil. Last week, reports emerged that Iraq’s state oil marketing company SOMO had canceled three crude loadings from Lukoil this month after the US sanctioned the second-biggest Russian oil producer last month.

Following the US sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft, oil traders and operators globally are steering clear of any cargoes of these two biggest Russian oil firms to avoid drawing the attention of the Donald Trump Administration and being slapped with secondary sanctions.

After the US sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft, “as a result of Russia’s lack of serious commitment to a peace process to end the war in Ukraine,” Lukoil announced it would sell all of its international assets, and reached a preliminary agreement with Switzerland-based commodity trader Gunvor to sell these.

Reuters also reported that Middle Eastern producers Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait will raise crude oil supplies to India in December as Indian refiners seek alternatives to Russian barrels.

The markets also saw support as the longest government shutdown in US history could end this week after the Senate approved a compromise that would restore federal funding. The Republican-controlled House of Representatives is due to vote on the deal later on Wednesday.

Worries about crude oversupply are curbing price gains with the main cause of this being the significant expansion of supply by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+).

Earlier this month, OPEC+ agreed to increase December output targets by 137,000 barrels per day, but also agreed to a pause in increases in the first quarter of next year.

Market analysts noted that the alliance which also Russia, has added 2 million barrels per day of output since April, and a willingness within the group to reverse voluntary production cuts further after the first quarter pause could add an extra 1 million barrels per day in the coming year.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

Oil Market Dips 3% on Signals Iran Ready to End War

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global oil market

By Adedapo Adesanya

The oil market was down more than $3 on Tuesday following reports that Iran’s president said the country was ready to end the war that has affected the global markets.

Brent crude depreciated by $3.42 to $103.97 per barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude lost $1.50 or 1.46 per cent to trade at $101.38 per barrel.

For Brent, it has steadily risen over the ​last four weeks as the Iran war has escalated, with attacks across energy infrastructure throughout the Gulf that have resulted in the worst-ever oil-and-gas supply disruption.

However, on Tuesday, Iran’s president, Mr Masoud Pezeshkian, suggested the Islamic Republic is open to ending the war if certain conditions are met.

“We possess the necessary will to end this conflict, provided that essential conditions are met, especially the guarantees required to prevent repetition of the aggression,” Mr Pezeshkian said in a phone conversation with the president of the European Council, according to a statement from his office.

The comments followed that of US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth, who said that the next days of the Iran war will be “decisive” while refusing to rule out US ground forces playing a role in the conflict.

In March, the market moved up and down each time US President Donald Trump ​suggested the military operation may be de-escalated – only to resume its upward path due to the supply impairment caused by Iran’s threats against vessels transiting the key Strait of Hormuz, the artery used to ​ship one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is only allowing vessels flying flags of “friendly” countries to transit, as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed from more than 100 ships transiting every day to fewer than 10 per day, most of which are with critical supplies bound for China, India, and Pakistan.

President Trump has suggested other countries should intervene to open the strait, a move European nations have not wanted to take until hostilities cease.

Meanwhile, the US has removed sanctions on barrels from Russia and pledged reserve ‌releases with ⁠a group of other nations, but those measures will only offset the supply loss for a limited period of time.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the US rose by a staggering 10.263 million barrels in the week ending March 27. Official data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be released later on Wednesday.

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Economy

Senate Passes 2026 Budget of N68.32trn

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Tinubu 2026 Budget presentation

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Senate has authorised the executive arm of government to spend about N68.323 trillion for the 2026 fiscal year.

President Bola Tinubu had earlier presented an appropriation bill of N58.47 trillion to a joint session of the National Assembly.

On Tuesday, March 31, 2026, he asked the red chamber of the parliament to increase the budget by N9.09 trillion to accommodate legacy commitments, particularly in the transportation and health sectors, as well as additional provisions, including funding for the judiciary.

This request was granted, and the budget proposal was raised and passed at the plenary session presided over by the Senate President, Mr Godswill Akpabio.

The approval came after the Senate adopted the National Assembly’s joint report on the 2026 Appropriation Bill.

A breakdown of the revised budget showed that N4.799 trillion is allocated for statutory transfers, N15.809 trillion for debt servicing, N15.427 trillion for recurrent (non-debt) expenditure, and N32.287 trillion for capital projects.

Further details indicated that N5.71 trillion from the additional provisions is earmarked for the regularisation of outstanding capital obligations carried over from the 2025 budget, alongside ₦2 trillion for previously omitted projects nationwide.

Sectoral allocations include N482.758 billion for the health sector, N478.600 billion for the Ministry of Finance Incorporated (MoFI), and N268 billion for the judiciary, with N36 billion specifically for the Supreme Court and N98.513 million for the Court of Appeal.

Additionally, N8.960 billion was approved for feasibility studies on key road projects, including the Calabar–Maiduguri and Maiduguri–Sokoto corridors.

Meanwhile, the Senate also approved an extension of the capital component of the 2025 budget, shifting its implementation deadline from March 31 to June 30, 2026, to allow for the completion of ongoing projects.

The House of Representatives also approved N68.30 trillion for the 2026 appropriation bill.

The budget is anchored on conservative assumptions, including a crude oil benchmark of US$64.85 per barrel, daily oil production of 1.84 million barrels, and an exchange rate of N1,400 to the US dollar for the 2026 fiscal year.

President Tinubu said the assumptions reflect the administration’s commitment to realism, prudence, and fiscal sustainability.

The National Assembly also approved President Tinubu’s request for a $6.9 billion foreign loan facility, with a key provision mandating that 40 per cent of the funds be channelled towards capital projects in the 2025/2026 budgets.

The approval followed the consideration of a report by the Senate Committee on Local and Foreign Debt, which recommended the allocation to ensure the loan directly supports infrastructure and development projects.

The Senate moved swiftly to review and pass the request during plenary.

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Economy

Dangote Refinery Gets Fresh $2.5bn Five-Year Loan from Afreximbank

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Dangote Refinery Crude Supply to Local Refineries

By Adedapo Adesanya

The African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) has underwritten $2.5 billion out of a $4 billion senior syndicated term loan for Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals.

In a statement issued on Tuesday, the African lender said the move was aimed at strengthening the refinery’s financial position and long-term growth.

“Afreximbank is pleased to announce that it has underwritten $2.5 billion in the $4-billion senior syndicated term loan in favour of Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals FZE (DPRP),” the statement said.

Afreximbank and Access Bank served as co-Mandated Lead Arrangers for the five-year facility, which is designed to consolidate existing debt, optimise the refinery’s capital structure, and align financing with its operational phase.

The transaction marks a significant milestone for the Dangote Refinery, Africa’s largest refinery and petrochemical complex, with a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day.

The facility is expected to improve balance sheet flexibility and reinforce the refinery’s role as a key supplier of refined petroleum products across Africa and global markets.

Afreximbank’s $2.5 billion contribution represents the largest share of the syndicate, the statement noted, underscoring its role in mobilising capital for Africa’s industrialisation, promoting intra-African trade, and supporting energy security.

Since the refinery began operations in February 2024, the bank said it has provided additional support, including a $1 billion working capital facility and advisory services on the Naira-for-Crude initiative, which enables crude purchases and product sales in local currency.

Speaking during a strategy session in Cairo, Egypt, Afreximbank President, Mr George Elombi, reaffirmed the bank’s commitment to African enterprises.

He said the bank takes immense pride in being the single largest provider of financing to the Dangote Group and that it does so primarily because Dangote is African.

“When we invest in ourselves, we do more than create jobs and wealth or expand government revenues; we build a secure and resilient future for our continent. This is why we are pleased to have invested about $15 billion in the Dangote Group since 2015,” he said.

He explained that “Afreximbank and its Board of Directors stand ready to support the realisation of Dangote Group’s aspirations because when we build our institutions and provide the requisite support to grow, we will no longer have to look elsewhere for benevolence or salvation in difficult times.”

In his remarks, the chief executive of Dangote Industries Limited, Mr Aliko Dangote, said the deal strengthens the refinery’s financial base.

“This financing marks an important step in strengthening the financial foundation of Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals and positions the business for the next phase of its growth,” Mr Dangote was quoted as saying.

He appreciated Afreximbank’s continued support and confidence in his vision to build world-class industrial capacity that serves Nigeria, Africa and global markets.

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