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Economy

Oil Prices Drop on US Inflation Data, Weak China Outlook

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oil prices fall

By Adedapo Adesanya

Oil prices settled lower on Thursday as speculation about another US interest rate hike faded following inflation data, with a weak outlook from China pressuring the market.

Brent crude fell by $1.15 or 1.3 per cent during the session to $86.40 per barrel, as the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude lost $1.58 or 1.9 per cent to close at $82.82 per barrel.

US consumer prices data for July released on Thursday fuelled speculation that the US Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its aggressive rate hike cycle.

The consumer price index rose 0.2 per cent last month, matching the gain in June. Shelter accounted for more than 90 per cent of the increase in the CPI, with rental costs increasing by 0.4 per cent.

Oil prices have been boosted in recent days by extensions to output cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia, alongside supply fears driven by the potential for conflict between Russia and Ukraine in the Black Sea region to threaten Russian oil shipments.

But recent data showed the consumer sector in China fell into deflation, and factory gate prices extended declines in July, raising concerns about fuel demand in the world’s second-largest economy.

The US also moved to curtail some investment in China in sensitive technologies like computer chips and requires government notification in other tech sectors.

Market analysts warned that as China’s data gets worse, it is only going to make it more difficult for China to ramp up its economy.

Support for prices also came as the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in its monthly report on Thursday it expected a healthy oil market for the rest of the year.

The group also stuck by its forecast for robust oil demand in 2024 as the outlook for world economic growth slightly improves.

OPEC said it expects world oil demand to rise by 2.25 million barrels per day in 2024, compared with growth of 2.44 million barrels per day in 2023. Both forecasts were unchanged from last month.

The report also increased OPEC’s forecast for world economic growth this year to 2.7 per cent from 2.6 per cent and raised next year’s figure by the same increment to 2.6 per cent, saying growth in the US, Brazil and Russia had surpassed initial expectations in the first half of 2023.

“Despite the latest positive developments, several uncertainties regarding economic growth in the second half of 2023 and 2024 require cautious monitoring,” OPEC said, adding that these include continued high inflation and the prospect of further increases to interest rates.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

Crude Oil Down on Steady US Energy Demand Forecast

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Crude Oil Loan Facility

By Adedapo Adesanya

Crude oil went down on Tuesday after a projection showed steady demand in the world’s largest oil producer, the United States, for 2025, Brent futures declining by $1.09 or 1.35 per cent to settle at $79.92 a barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude losing $1.32 or 1.67 per cent to finish at $77.50 a barrel.

On Tuesday, the US Energy Information Administration said the country’s oil demand would remain steady at 20.5 million barrels per day in 2025 and 2026, with domestic oil output rising to 13.55 million barrels per day, an increase from the agency’s previous forecast of 13.52 million barrels per day for this year.

Also, the oil market shrank a few days after prices gained following new US sanctions on Russian oil exports to India and China.

On Monday, prices jumped 2 per cent after the US Treasury Department on Friday imposed sanctions on Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas as well as 183 vessels that transport oil as part of Russia’s so-called shadow fleet of tankers.

Analysts say this move could have a significant price impact on Russian oil supplies from the fresh sanctions, however, their effect on the physical market could be less pronounced than what the affected volumes might suggest.

ING analysts estimated the new sanctions had the potential to erase the entire 700,000 barrels per day surplus they had forecast for this year, but said the real impact could be lower.

Uncertainty about demand from China, the world’s largest oil importer, could impact tighter supply this year.

China’s crude oil imports fell in 2024 for the first time in two decades outside of the COVID-19 pandemic, official data showed on Monday.

Meanwhile, the American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the US fell by 2.6 million barrels for the week ending January 10.

For the week prior, the API reported a draw of 4.022 million barrels in US crude oil inventories amid build season, while product inventories saw a hefty build.

In 2024, crude oil inventories dropped by more than 12 million barrels, according to the API’s inventory data. In the first few weeks of 2025, crude inventories have shed more than 6.6 million barrels.

Official data from the US EIA will be due later on Wednesday, confirming the actual level of stockpiles.

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Economy

Stock Exchange Suffers Heavy Loss as Investors Pull Out N1.1trn

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Local Stock Exchange

By Dipo Olowookere

The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited came under heavy selling pressure on Tuesday, going down by 1.66 per cent as investors embarked on profit-taking after most stocks on the trading platform gained in the past few trading sessions.

It was observed that the industrial goods sector was the most affected yesterday as it went down by 4.99 per cent due to the decline suffered by Dangote Cement and others.

The insurance continued its downward trend during the day as it lost 2.80 per cent, the consumer goods counter fell by 0.27 per cent, and the banking index shed 0.10 per cent, while the energy sector appreciated by 0.29 per cent.

At the close of business, the All-Share Index (ASI) deflated by 1,745.16 points to settle at 103,622.09 points compared with the previous trading day’s 105,367.25 points and the market capitalisation moderated by N1.1 trillion to finish at N63.188 trillion versus Monday’s N64.252 trillion.

Business Post reports that investor sentiment remained weak on Tuesday after the bourse ended with 41 depreciating equities and 23 appreciating equities, representing a negative market breadth index.

Honeywell Flour lost 10.00 per cent to trade at N9.54, Dangote Cement declined by 9.98 per cent to N431.00, Julius Berger crashed by 9.98 per cent to N139.80, Sovereign Trust Insurance decreased by 9.68 per cent to N1.12, and Prestige Assurance tumbled by 9.30 per cent to N1.17.

On the flip side, Northern Nigerian Flour Mills appreciated by 10.00 per cent to N45.10, Livestock Feeds grew by 9.91 per cent to N6.10, Academy Press expanded by 9.90 per cent to N3.22, University Press increased by 9.82 per cent to N4.81, and Neimeth gained 9.76 per cent to quote at N3.15.

During the session, market participants bought and sold 503.3 million shares valued at N12.6 billion in 12,900 deals compared with the 505.8 million shares worth N8.1 billion traded in 14,259 deals a day earlier, indicating a rise in the trading value by 55.56 per cent and a drop in the trading volume and number of deals by 0.49 per cent and 9.53 per cent, respectively.

The most active stock for the session was GTCO with 54.4 million units worth N3.2 billion, Nigerian Breweries transacted 32.2 million units for N1.0 billion, Universal Insurance traded 30.8 million units valued at N22.6 million, AIICO Insurance exchanged 26.6 million units worth N47.2 million, and Chams transacted 20.0 million units valued at N40.9 million.

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Economy

FG Offers 18% Interest on Savings Bonds

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FGN Savings Bonds

By Adedapo Adesanya

The federal government is offering two new savings bonds with interest rates between 17 and 18 per cent through the Debt Management Office (DMO).

In a statement by the agency, the country said retail investors can purchase the two-year bond maturing in January 2027 at 17.23 per cent interest, while the three-year paper maturing in January 2028 at a coupon rate of 18.23 per cent.

Bonds are very safe financial instrument that serve as investments because they are backed by the federal government, which promises to pay back the money.

According to the DMO, people can buy these bonds starting January 13, 2025, until January 17, 2025, with allotment expected on January 22, 2025, and the interest to be paid to investors every three months – in April, July, October, and January.

These bonds have some special features. They are tax-free under both company and personal tax laws.

Big investors like pension funds and trustees are allowed to buy them and each bond costs N1,000 each.

However, interested investor can only  buy at least N5,000 worth, and can’t buy more than N50 million.

This comes after the Ms Patience Oniha-led debt office said the Nigerian government was offering three bonds worth N150 billion in September 2024.

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