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Oil Prices Ease on Russian Refineries Attack Outcomes

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Oil prices settled lower on Tuesday as the market weighed the loss of Russian refinery capacity after recent Ukrainian attacks, with Brent crude losing 50 cents to trade at $86.25 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell by 33 cents to close at $81.62 per barrel.

Prices edged lower after Russia’s government ordered companies to cut output in the second quarter to meet a 9 million barrels per day target to comply with pledges to the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+).

Earlier this month, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that Russia would cut its oil output and exports by an additional 471,000 barrels per day in the second quarter.

Russia will reduce output by an extra 350,000 barrels per day in April, with exports will be cut from March levels by 121,000 barrels per day. In May, output will be cut by 400,000 barrels per day and exports by another 71,000 barrels per day. In June, all the additional cuts will be from oil output.

The country, among the top three global oil producers and one of the largest exporters of oil products, is also contending with a spate of recent attacks on its oil refineries by Ukraine.

Russian oil refining capacity shut down by the attacks has reached 14 per cent of the country’s total capacity.

Meanwhile, it has also mounted its attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.

Also, a slightly weaker US Dollar offered some support to oil prices.

A weaker greenback typically makes oil cheaper for oil buyers holding other currencies as oil is priced in the Dollar.

Further, rising geopolitical premiums as the Israel-Gaza conflict continues were also set to sustain price levels. Iran-backed Houthi militants on Tuesday said they had mounted six attacks on ships in the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea over the past 72 hours.

Reuters reported that the OPEC+ is unlikely to make any oil output policy changes until a full ministerial gathering in June.

According to sources, it was said that the 22-nation group is not expected to make any policy recommendations ahead of next week’s gathering of ministers.

According to the American Petroleum Institute (API) figures on Tuesday, US crude stocks rose by 9.3 million barrels in the week ended March 22.

Official government data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be published later on Wednesday.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

NGX Rallies 0.53% as Airtel Africa, First Holdco Top Gainers’ Log

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By Dipo Olowookere

The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited further appreciated by 0.53 per cent on Tuesday on the back of strong appetite for some large and mid-cap equities.

During the session, Airtel Africa led the gainers’ log after it appreciated by 10.00 per cent to sell for N4,021.20, International Energy Insurance grew by 9.90 per cent to N8.77, Abbey Mortgage Bank advanced by 9.76 per cent to N11.25, Infinity Trust Mortgage Bank improved by 9.63 per cent to N10.25, and First Holdco surged by 8.49 per cent to N69.00.

Conversely, Learn Africa, Trans-Nationwide Express, Okomu Oil, Unilever Nigeria, and NAHCO lost 10.00 per cent each to trade at N9.45, N4.41, N1,575.00, N140.40, and N170.55, respectively.

Business Post reports that the bears and the bulls shared the spoils on the price movement index, after Customs Street ended with 33 price gainers and 33 price losers.

The bourse witnessed sell-offs yesterday, which caused three of the five key sectors to close in the red.

The industrial goods space lost 0.99 per cent, the consumer goods index declined by 0.83 per cent, and the energy sector shed 0.14 per cent.

However, a 1.33 per cent surge posted by the banking counter and the 0.24 per cent growth recorded by the insurance sector offset the losses.

As a result, the All-Share Index (ASI) went up by 990.55 points to 244,697.62 points from 243,707.07 points, and the market capitalisation increased by N636 billion to N156.944 trillion from N156.308 trillion.

A total of 1.3 billion stocks valued at N57.9 billion exchanged hands in 59,956 deals during the trading day versus the 717.2 million stocks worth N56.7 billion traded in 73,321 deals on Monday, indicating an improvement in the trading volume and value by 81.26 per cent and 2.12 per cent, respectively, and a shortfall in the number of deals by 18.23 per cent.

Sterling Holdings transacted 715.7 million shares for N5.4 billion, GTCO sold 49.2 million stocks worth N6.7 billion, FCMB exchanged 34.4 million equities valued at N412.8 million, Veritas Kapital traded 29.1 million shares worth N48.0 million, and Access Holdings exchanged 27.3 million stocks for N680.8 million.

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Economy

Oil Market Falls 3% as Trump Signals Confidence in Iran Deal

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The oil market fell about 3 per cent ​to a seven-week low on Tuesday after Iran and Israel said they had halted attacks on each other following an ‌appeal from US President Donald Trump.

Brent futures dropped $2.80 or 3.0 per cent to settle at $91.45 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slid $3.10 or 3.4 per cent to trade at $88.20 a barrel.

President Trump said he remained confident a deal with Iran could be reached soon, even as many expressed scepticism. He also said Iran shot down an American helicopter in the Strait of Hormuz, threatening retaliation.

Tensions were still simmering between Israel and Iran, after the two countries struck each other for the first time in weeks, and CNN noted that the American President had promised an impending deal on at least 37 occasions.

Meanwhile, the rift between the US president and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu widened further, complicating any agreement.

According to Reuters, Iran has so far held back from attacking even though Israel struck the historic port city of ​Tyre in southern Lebanon, killing at least eight people.

However, Iran continued to block most shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which, before the ​war, carried a fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas. The US has imposed its own blockade of Iranian ports.

Market analysts noted that when the strait ultimately reopens, Iran and Oman will set new conditions for passage, including transit fees.

China’s May crude imports slumped 29 per cent to their lowest level in eight years, extending a sharp decline in the world’s largest oil importer that is helping keep a lid on global oil prices.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the United States fell by 9.119 million barrels in the week ending June 5. Official data from the Energy Information ​Administration (EIA) will be released later on Wednesday.

The EIA projected the Iran war would ​slash world petroleum production to ⁠an average of 99.0 million barrels per day in 2026, down from a record 106.1 million barrels per day in 2025. The agency also forecast that world oil demand would slide to 102.9 million barrels per day in 2026 from a record ​104.0 million barrels per day in 2025.

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Economy

IMF Warns Over Nigeria’s Proposed $5bn Swap Deal with First Abu Dhabi Bank

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned of risks surrounding Nigeria’s plan to borrow up to $5 billion through a derivatives agreement with First Abu Dhabi Bank.

In its latest Article IV review following the conclusion of its latest mission in Nigeria, the global lender said such transactions are ‌often opaque and complex.

The Senate in April gave its approval to the agreement put forward by President Bola Tinubu, who said his administration intends to use proceeds from the total return swap to refinance expensive debt and pay for infrastructure.

“Our view is that the transactions in these types of structures carry risks. Usually they are opaque, so the terms are not always ⁠very transparent when we reviewed these instruments across countries,” according to the IMF’s mission chief in Nigeria, Mr Christian Ebeke.

Mr Ebeke said Nigeria could instead issue eurobonds to finance its deficits or other means to raise funding, including on concessional terms.

The Fund also praised Nigeria’s sweeping reforms, saying they had strengthened economic stability and investor confidence, but warned that the benefits had yet to ‌reach ⁠millions of citizens and could be undermined by global shocks, including the Middle East conflict.

“Strong reforms over the past three years have yielded improved macroeconomic outcomes and built resilience. Still, conditions for many Nigerians remain difficult,” the IMF stated.

However, it cautioned that the reforms ⁠were also contributing to social strain, with poverty levels at 63 per cent and millions facing food insecurity, underscoring a widening gap between macro gains and household realities.

“Conditions remain difficult for many Nigerians, with poverty and food insecurity likely to worsen in the current external environment,” the IMF Executive Board stated.

The IMF said improved policy credibility and forex ⁠reforms had helped Nigeria regain access to international capital markets and attract portfolio inflows, while reducing risk premiums.

It, however, warned that reliance on volatile foreign portfolio investment poses rollover risks and urged a shift towards more stable, long-term capital such as foreign direct investment.

The lender also warned that non-performing loans had risen to eight per cent in the third quarter of 2025, above prudential limits.

The IMF then urged Nigerian authorities to accelerate structural reforms in electricity, infrastructure, agriculture and human capital development to drive inclusive growth and economic diversification.

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