Economy
Oil Prices Slightly Rise as OPEC+ Pauses Output Increase from Next Quarter
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil prices were marginally up on Monday as the market balanced the latest Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) supply increase with plans to pause output increases in the first quarter of 2026, along with fears of an oil supply glut and weak factory data in Asia.
Brent crude futures rose by 12 cents or 0.2 per cent to settle at $64.89 per barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude expanded by 7 cents or 0.1 per cent to trade at $61.05 a barrel.
“Beyond December, due to seasonality, the eight countries also decided to pause the production increments in January, February, and March 2026,” the group said in a statement.
The development followed its moderating plans to regain market share due to rising fears of a supply glut.
The alliance has raised output targets by around 2.9 million barrels per day or around 2.7 per cent of global supply since April, but slowed the pace from October amid predictions of a looming oversupply.
The group had been reducing output for several years until April, and cuts had peaked in March, amounting to 5.85 million barrels per day in total.
Market analysts noted that any negative price implications from OPEC’s furtherance of this quarter’s 137,000 barrels per day production increase were offset by the cartel’s suggested pause in output advances after the end of this year.
Morgan Stanley analysts raised its Brent crude forecast for the first half of 2026 to $60 a barrel from $57.50, citing the decision by OPEC+ to pause quota hikes in the first quarter of next year and recent on Russian oil assets.
Last month, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said the global oil market faces a surplus next year of as much as 4 million barrels per day. OPEC expects global oil supply and demand to balance next year.
Pressure also came from a strong US Dollar which weighed on oil prices by making crude more expensive for buyers using other currencies. The greenback hovered at a three-month high against a basket of peers.
