Economy
OPEC Cuts 2026 Global Oil Demand Forecast Over Iran War
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Wednesday lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 due to the Iran war.
According to the cartel, world oil demand will rise by 1.17 million barrels per day in 2026, down from the previous 1.38 million barrels per day.
OPEC said consumption would rebound later and raised its demand growth forecast for 2027. For next year, it expects oil demand to rise by 1.54 million barrels per day, up 200,000 barrels per day from the previous forecast.
OPEC joins other forecasters, such as the International Energy Agency (IEA), in cutting expectations due to the war that started in February.
The producer group sees a smaller hit to demand than the IEA, which earlier on Wednesday increased its estimate of the decline in oil use this year.
The IEA sees demand falling by 420,000 barrels per day this year, compared with a previous forecast of an 80,000 barrels per day drop. Overall, global oil supply will fall by around 3.9 million barrels per day across 2026 due to the war, slashing its previous forecast, which had projected a 1.5 million barrels per day drop.
The war has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil route, curbing millions of barrels of Middle East output and sending fuel prices soaring. The surge is hitting consumers and businesses, and prompting government steps to conserve supplies.
“The global economic growth continues to show resilience for this year despite geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East,” OPEC said, leaving its economic growth forecasts unchanged.
Global oil demand is expected to average 104.57 million barrels per day in the second quarter, down from the 105.07 million barrels per day forecast last month, OPEC said. The previous report had already cut the second-quarter estimate by 500,000 barrels per day.
The wider OPEC+, which groups the OPEC and allies such as Russia, had agreed to resume output increases from April, but the closure of Hormuz has made it impossible to deliver on the deal. The report said output fell further in April.
OPEC+ crude output averaged 33.19 million barrels per day in April, down 1.74 million barrels per day from March, the report said, citing secondary sources OPEC uses to monitor its production.
The April figure includes the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which left OPEC on May 1.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange recorded its best performance this year on Tuesday, June 2, closing higher by 1.89 per cent.
During the session, the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) went up by 81.62 points to 4,406.30 points from the preceding day’s 4,324.68 points, and the market capitalisation added N48.48 billion to close at N2.636 trillion compared with Monday’s N2.587 trillion.
Business Post reports that the bourse recorded five price gainers and one price loser, Geo-Fluid Plc, which fell by 1 Kobo to N2.87 per unit from N2.88 per unit.
Conversely, Nipco Plc gained N31.57 to sell at N347.27 per share versus N315.70 per share, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc grew by N9.86 to N196.51 per unit from N186.68 per unit, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc improved by N3.13 to N76.10 per share from N72.97 per share, Food Concepts Plc added 27 Kobo to sell at N2.95 per unit compared with the preceding day’s N2.68 per unit, and UBN Property Plc expanded by 17 Kobo to N2.20 per share from N2.03 per share.
Yesterday, the volume of securities transacted by investors depreciated by 91.4 per cent to 307,363 units from the previous session’s 3.6 million units, and the value of securities dropped 75.9 per cent to N42.8 million from the preceding session’s N177.4 million, while the number of deals went up by 13.5 per cent to 42 deals from Monday’s 37 deals.
At the close of trades, Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc was the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units traded for N8.4 billion, followed by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc with 2.3 billion units sold for N6.5 billion, and CSCS Plc with 64.3 million units exchanged for N4.4 billion.
GNI Plc also finished as the most active stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, followed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units valued at N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units sold for N415.7 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira further firmed up against the US Dollar by N5.74 or 0.42 per cent in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Tuesday, June 2, trading at N1,361.05/$1 compared with the previous day’s N1,366.95/$1.
It was also the same scenario in the official market yesterday, where the Nigerian currency gained 9 Kobo against the Pound Sterling to close at N1,833.19/£1 versus N1,833.28/£1, and against the Euro, it appreciated by N2.73 to sell for N1,584.39/€1 compared with Monday’s rate of N1,587.12/€1.
At the parallel market, the Naira traded flat against the United States Dollar at N1,380/$1, and also closed flat at the GTBank forex counter at N1,378/$1.
Data showed that FX turnover declined to $169.822 million across 168 deals, from $177.927 million in the previous day.
Following the stellar performance witnessed in the first half of 2026, there are expectations that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) will continue to inject FX inflows into the official market, while elevated oil prices in the global commodity market will buoy the country’s FX reserves.
The launch of the fourth edition of the CBN’s Foreign Exchange Manual is also expected to make rules clearer in the country’s financial system, including the introduction of new measures covering imports, exports, travel allowances, trade finance, and foreign remittances as the apex bank seeks to improve transparency and efficiency in the FX market.
In the cryptocurrency market, there was a reversal in spikes seen in April price levels amid a price sell-off triggered by geopolitical uncertainties as well as attractiveness of traditional markets, where stocks are near record highs, and the Dollar index remains rangebound.
Bitcoin (BTC) slipped by 4.1 per cent to $67,352.62, Binance Coin (BNB) slumped by 5.6 per cent to $644.72, Solana (SOL) declined by 5.6 per cent to $75.09, Ethereum (ETH) fell by 5.3 per cent to $1,878.96, and Dogecoin (DOGE) depreciated by 5.2 per cent to $0.0942.
Further, Cardano (ADA) dipped by 3.7 per cent to $0.2158, Ripple (XRP) went down by 2.2 per cent to $1.24, TRON (TRX) dropped 2.0 per cent to sell at $0.3330, the US Dollar Tether (USDT) shed 0.14 per cent to settle at $0.9986, and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) slipped by 0.03 per cent to $0.9997.
By Dipo Olowookere
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited further weakened by 0.35 per cent on Tuesday due to persistent selling pressure across the key sectors of the bourse.
During the session, the banking index shed 1.63 per cent, the consumer goods space lost 0.50 per cent, the insurance counter declined by 0.44 per cent, and the energy segment slipped by 0.04 per cent, while the industrial goods sector was flat.
Consequently, the All-Share Index (ASI) decreased by 874.00 points to 246,686.66 points from 247,560.66 points, and the market capitalisation went down by N479 billion to N158.219 trillion from N158.698 trillion.
Like the preceding day, investor sentiment was bearish after Customs Street ended with 18 price gainers and 35 price losers, representing a negative market breadth index.
PZ Cussons lost 10.00 per cent to trade at N88.20, CWG also shrank by 10.00 per cent to N21.60, ABC Transport crashed by 9.95 per cent to N6.88, Wema Bank slumped by 9.09 per cent to N30.00, and Sovereign Trust Insurance crumbled by 8.16 per cent to N2.70.
On the flip side, CWG gained 9.86 per cent to finish at N5.46, Trans-Nationwide Express chalked up 7.14 per cent to trade at N5.10, Neimeth appreciated by 6.80 per cent to N11.00, LivingTrust Mortgage Bank rose by 5.00 per cent to N4.20, and Abbey Mortgage Bank improved by 4.44 per cent to N7.05.
A look at the activity log showed that Access Holdings led with 113.1 million shares worth N2.7 billion, Zenith Bank transacted 38.1 million equities valued at N4.8 billion, Consolidated Hallmark exchanged 35.4 million stocks for N243.4 million, Neimeth sold 28.8 million shares worth N298.8 million, and Sterling Holdings traded 28.2 million equities valued at N220.1 million.
At the close of transactions, market participants bought and sold 718.8 million stocks for N29.3 billion in 71,683 deals compared with the 1.1 billion stocks worth N44.3 billion transacted in 91,880 deals a day earlier. This indicated that the trading volume, value, and number of deals depreciated by 34.66 per cent, 33.86 per cent, and 21.98 per cent, respectively.
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