Economy
OPEC+ Quota Increase Keeps Oil Market in Deficit—Analysts
By Adedapo Adesanya
The move by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) to raise production limits by 400,000 barrels per day monthly from this month will leave the oil market in deficit at the end of 2021, research analysts at Merrill Lynch have said.
The analysts, Karen Kostanian and Ekaterina Smyk, noted that the move by the 23-member alliance was positive for oil in both the short and medium-term as a change in baseline production levels does not mean an immediate 1.6 million barrels per day hike from April 2022 and will mostly redistribute quotas within OPEC+.
“Production quotas may be adjusted on the way, while baseline production changes signal a general commitment from the key member.
“Production quotas may be adjusted on the way, while baseline production changes signal a general commitment from the key members,” they said.
Business Post had reported that last month, after a brief stalemate between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the members agreed to raise the output limit imposed on five countries, by phasing out 5.8 million barrels per day of oil production cuts by September 2022.
The analysts allayed concerns that oil prices would run into some turbulence post the latest OPEC+ agreement as the market feared upcoming supply hikes and importantly the select members potentially flooding the market in 2022 with cumulative 1.6 million barrels per day additions to baseline production levels.
Last week, oil settled lower with the Brent crude recording more than 7 per cent drop and the United States West Texas Intermediate (WTI) falling more than 5 per cent amid fears that the faster-spreading Delta variant would slow fuel demand in China and the rest of Asia.
Most oil market experts also believe that the OPEC deal last month, marking the end of a gridlock, will help cool prices which have climbed to 2-1/2year highs as the global economy recovers from the coronavirus pandemic.
As part of the latest agreement, Russia should be able to add 100,000 barrels per day each month starting from August (its 25 per cent share of OPEC+ quota) and its baseline production level will be increased from April 2022 by 500,000 barrels per day to 11.5 million barrels per day for crude only.
“First, the reversal of 500,000 barrels per day by the end of 2021 means oil production (crude + condensate) could reach almost 11 million barrels per day, just 3.0 per cent below pre-Covid levels.
“Should OPEC+ continue to add 400,000 barrels per day per month in Q1, Russia essentially would be allowed to fully restore production by the end of Q1 2022.
“Second, the baseline crude production of 11.5 million per day practically means that Russia would have to produce roughly 1 million barrels per day above its historical maximum,” Merrill Lynch analysts said.
“We hence believe that Russia is highly unlikely to reach its baseline levels on a 1 – 2 year horizon considering flat CAPEX levels over the past couple of years. The next big growth project is not expected to come online before the mid-2020s,” they said.
Bloomberg survey for OPEC production shows that the group increased crude production by 400,000 barrels per day month on month in July as part of the OPEC agreement to reverse 1.15 million barrels per day of the cuts through May-July.
Saudi Arabia led an increase adding close to 500 barrels per day which were offset by small declines in production across other producers while Iranian production was almost flat in July as it added 30,000 barrels per day.
By Adedapo Adesanya
TotalEnergies EP Nigeria has signed a Sale and Purchase Agreement with Vaaris for the divestment of its 10 per cent non-operated interest in the Renaissance JV licences in Nigeria.
The Renaissance JV, formerly known as the SPDC JV, is an unincorporated joint venture between Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (55 per cent), Renaissance Africa Energy Company Ltd (30 per cent, operator), TotalEnergies EP Nigeria (10 per cent) and Agip Energy and Natural Resources Nigeria (5 per cent), which holds 18 licences in the Niger Delta.
In a statement by TotalEnergies on Wednesday, it was stated that under the agreement signed with Vaaris, TotalEnergies EP Nigeria will sell its 10 per cent participating interest and all its rights and obligations in 15 licences of Renaissance JV, which are producing mainly oil.
Production from these licences, it was said, represented approximately 16,000 barrels equivalent per day in company’s share in 2025.
The agreement also stated that TotalEnergies EP Nigeria will also transfer to Vaaris its 10 per cent participating interest in the three other licences of Renaissance JV which are producing mainly gas, namely OML 23, OML 28 and OML 77, while TotalEnergies will retain full economic interest in these licences, which currently account for 50 per cent of Nigeria LNG gas supply.
Business Post reports that the conclusion of the deal is subject to customary conditions, including regulatory approvals.
“TotalEnergies EP Nigeria has signed a Sale and Purchase Agreement with Vaaris for the sale of its 10 per cent non-operated interest in the Renaissance JV licences in Nigeria.
“Under the agreement signed with Vaaris, TotalEnergies EP Nigeria will sell to Vaaris its 10 per cent participating interest and all its rights and obligations in 15 licences of Renaissance JV, which are producing mainly oil. Production from these licences represented approximately 16,000 barrels equivalent per day in the company’s share in 2025.
“TotalEnergies EP Nigeria will also transfer to Vaaris its 10 per cent participating interest in the 3 other licenses of Renaissance JV, which are producing mainly gas (OML 23, OML 28 and OML 77), while TotalEnergies will retain full economic interest in these licenses, which currently account for 50 per cent of Nigeria LNG gas supply. Closing is subject to customary conditions, including regulatory approvals,” the statement reads in part.
The development is part of TotalEnergies’ strategies to dump more assets to lighten its books and debt.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The trading licence of Monument Securities and Finance Limited has been revoked by the regulatory arm of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Group Plc.
Known as NGX Regulations Limited (NGX Regco), the regulator said it took back the operating licence of the organisation after it shut down its operations.
The revocation of the licence was approved by Regulation and New Business Committee (RNBC) at its meeting held on September 24, 2025, a notice from the signed by the Head of Market Regulations at the agency, Chinedu Akamaka, said.
“This is to formally notify all trading license holders that the board of NGX Regulation Limited (NGX RegCo) has approved the decision of the Regulation and New Business Committee (RNBC)” in respect of Monument Securities and Finance Limited, a part of the disclosure stated.
Monument Securities and Finance Limited was earlier licensed to assist clients with the trading of stocks in the Nigerian capital market.
However, with the latest development, the firm is no longer authorised to perform this function.
Economy
NEITI Advocates Fiscal Discipline, Transparency as FG, States, LGs Get N6trn in Three Months
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI) has called for fiscal discipline and transparency as data showed that federal government, states, and local governments shared a whopping N6 trillion Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) disbursements in the third quarter of last year.
In its analysis of the FAAC Q3 2025 allocation, the body revealed that the federal government received N2.19 trillion, states received N1.97 trillion, and local governments received N1.45 trillion.
According to a statement by the Director of Communication and Stakeholders Management at NEITI, Mrs Obiageli Onuorah, the allocation indicated a historic rise in federation account receipts and distributions, explaining that year-on-year quarterly FAAC allocations in 2025 grew by 55.6 per cent compared with Q3 of 2024 while it more than doubling allocations over two years.
The report contained in the agency’s Quarterly Review noted that the N6 trillion included 13 per cent payments to derivative states. It also showed that statutory revenues accounted for 62 per cent of shared receipts, while Value Added Tax (VAT) was 34 per cent, and Electronic Money Transfer Levy (EMTL) and augmentation from non-oil excess revenue each accounted for 2 per cent, respectively.
The distribution to the 36 states comprised revenues from statutory sources, VAT, EMTL, and ecological funds. States also received additional N100 billion as augmentation from the non-oil excess revenue account.
The Executive Secretary of NEITI, Mr Sarkin Adar, called on the Office of the Accountant General of the Federation, the Revenue Mobilisation Allocation and Fiscal Commission (RMAFC) FAAC, the National Economic Council (NEC), the National Assembly, and state governments to act on the recommendations to strengthen transparency, accountability, and long-term fiscal sustainability.
“Though the Quarter 3 2025 FAAC results are encouraging, NEITI reiterates that the data presents an opportunity to the government to institutionalise prudent fiscal practices that will protect the gains that have been recorded so far in growing revenue and reduce vulnerability to commodity shocks.
“The Q3 2025 FAAC results are encouraging, but windfalls must be managed with discipline. Greater transparency, realistic budgeting, and stronger stabilisation mechanisms will ensure these resources deliver durable benefits for all Nigerians,” Mr Adar said.
NEITI urged the government at all levels to ensure the growth of Nigeria’s sovereign wealth and stabilisation capacity, by committing to regular transfers to the Nigeria Sovereign Wealth Fund and other related stabilisation mechanisms in line with the fiscal responsibility frameworks.
It further advised governments at all levels to adopt realistic budget benchmarks by setting more conservative and achievable crude oil production and price assumptions in the budget to reduce implementation gaps, deficit, and debt metrics.
This, it said, is in addition to accelerating revenue diversification by prioritising reforms that would attract investments into the mining sector, expedite legislation to modernise the Mineral and Mining Act, support reforms in the downstream petroleum sector, as well as the full implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) to expand domestic refining and value addition.
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