Economy
OPEC+ Quota Increase Keeps Oil Market in Deficit—Analysts
By Adedapo Adesanya
The move by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) to raise production limits by 400,000 barrels per day monthly from this month will leave the oil market in deficit at the end of 2021, research analysts at Merrill Lynch have said.
The analysts, Karen Kostanian and Ekaterina Smyk, noted that the move by the 23-member alliance was positive for oil in both the short and medium-term as a change in baseline production levels does not mean an immediate 1.6 million barrels per day hike from April 2022 and will mostly redistribute quotas within OPEC+.
“Production quotas may be adjusted on the way, while baseline production changes signal a general commitment from the key member.
“Production quotas may be adjusted on the way, while baseline production changes signal a general commitment from the key members,” they said.
Business Post had reported that last month, after a brief stalemate between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the members agreed to raise the output limit imposed on five countries, by phasing out 5.8 million barrels per day of oil production cuts by September 2022.
The analysts allayed concerns that oil prices would run into some turbulence post the latest OPEC+ agreement as the market feared upcoming supply hikes and importantly the select members potentially flooding the market in 2022 with cumulative 1.6 million barrels per day additions to baseline production levels.
Last week, oil settled lower with the Brent crude recording more than 7 per cent drop and the United States West Texas Intermediate (WTI) falling more than 5 per cent amid fears that the faster-spreading Delta variant would slow fuel demand in China and the rest of Asia.
Most oil market experts also believe that the OPEC deal last month, marking the end of a gridlock, will help cool prices which have climbed to 2-1/2year highs as the global economy recovers from the coronavirus pandemic.
As part of the latest agreement, Russia should be able to add 100,000 barrels per day each month starting from August (its 25 per cent share of OPEC+ quota) and its baseline production level will be increased from April 2022 by 500,000 barrels per day to 11.5 million barrels per day for crude only.
“First, the reversal of 500,000 barrels per day by the end of 2021 means oil production (crude + condensate) could reach almost 11 million barrels per day, just 3.0 per cent below pre-Covid levels.
“Should OPEC+ continue to add 400,000 barrels per day per month in Q1, Russia essentially would be allowed to fully restore production by the end of Q1 2022.
“Second, the baseline crude production of 11.5 million per day practically means that Russia would have to produce roughly 1 million barrels per day above its historical maximum,” Merrill Lynch analysts said.
“We hence believe that Russia is highly unlikely to reach its baseline levels on a 1 – 2 year horizon considering flat CAPEX levels over the past couple of years. The next big growth project is not expected to come online before the mid-2020s,” they said.
Bloomberg survey for OPEC production shows that the group increased crude production by 400,000 barrels per day month on month in July as part of the OPEC agreement to reverse 1.15 million barrels per day of the cuts through May-July.
Saudi Arabia led an increase adding close to 500 barrels per day which were offset by small declines in production across other producers while Iranian production was almost flat in July as it added 30,000 barrels per day.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Food Concepts Plc neutralized the gains recorded by three securities, returning the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange into the negative territory with a 0.27 per cent loss on Thursday, December 4.
Yesterday, the share price of the parent company of Chicken Republic and PieXpress declined by 34 Kobo to sell at N3.15 per unit compared with the previous day’s N3.49 per unit.
This shrank the market capitalisation of the OTC bourse by N5.72 billion to N2.136 billion from N2.142 trillion and weakened the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) by 9.57 points to 3,571.53 points from 3,581.10 points.
Business Post reports that Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc went down by 50 Kobo to N38.50 per share from N38.00 per share, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc gained 29 Kobo to sell at N55.79 per unit versus N55.50 per unit, and Geo-Fluids Plc added 5 Kobo to close at N4.60 per share compared with Wednesday’s closing price of N4.55 per share.
Trading data indicated that the volume of securities recorded at the session surged by 6,885.3 per cent to 4.3 million units from the 61,570 units posted a day earlier, the value of securities increased by 10,301.7 per cent to N947.2 million from N3.3 million, and the number of deals went up by 146.7 per cent to 37 deals from the 15 deals achieved in the previous trading session.
At the close of business, Infrastructure Credit Guarantee Company (InfraCredit) Plc was the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis with the sale of 5.8 billion units for N16.4 billion, trailed by Okitipupa Plc with 170.4 million units worth N8.0 billion, and Air Liquide Plc with 507.5 million units valued at N4.2 billion.
InfraCredit Plc also finished the session as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 5.8 billion units transacted for N16.4 billion, followed by Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc with 1.2 billion units sold for N420.2 million, and Impresit Bakolori Plc with 536.9 million units traded for N524.9 million.
By Dipo Olowookere
The upward trend witnessed at the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited in recent sessions continued on Thursday as it further improved by 0.10 per cent.
This was despite investor sentiment turning bearish after the local equity market ended with 23 price gainers and 28 price gainers, indicating a negative market breadth index.
UAC Nigeria gained 10.00 per cent to finish at N88.00, Morison Industries appreciated by 9.94 per cent to N3.54, Ecobank rose by 8.53 per cent to N36.90, and Coronation Insurance grew by 8.47 per cent to N2.56.
On the flip side, Ellah Lakes depreciated by 10.00 per cent to N13.14, Eunisell Nigeria also shed 10.00 per cent to finish at N72.90, Transcorp Hotels slipped by 9.95 per cent to N157.50, Omatek shrank by 9.23 per cent to N1.18, and Guinea Insurance dipped by 8.46 per cent to N1.19.
Yesterday, the All-Share Index (ASI) went up by 152.28 points to 145,476.15 points from 145,323.87 points and the market capitalisation chalked up N97 billion to finish at N92.726 trillion compared with the previous day’s N92.629 trillion.
Customs Street was bubbling with activities on Thursday, though the trading volume and value slightly went down, according to data.
A total of 1.9 billion stocks worth N19.2 billion exchanged hands in 23,369 deals during the session versus the N2.3 billion valued at N21.0 billion traded in 21,513 deals a day earlier.
This showed that the number of deals increased by 8.63 per cent, the volume of transactions depleted by 17.39 per cent, and the value of trades decreased by 8.57 per cent.
For another trading day, eTranzact led the activity chart with 1.6 billion units sold for N6.4 billion, Fidelity Bank traded 31.0 million units worth N589.3 million, GTCO exchanged 28.3 million units valued at N2.5 billion, Zenith Bank transacted 27.1 million units for N1.6 billion, and Ecobank traded 21.9 million units worth N744.3 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira marginally depreciated against the United States Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) on Thursday, December 4 amid renewed forex pressure associated with December.
At the official market yesterday, the Nigerian currency lost 0.01 per cent or 18 Kobo against the Dollar to close at N1,447.83/$1 compared with the previous day’s N1,447.65/$1.
It was not a different scenario with the local currency in the same market segment against the Pound Sterling as it further shed N15.43 to sell for N1,930.97/£1 versus Wednesday’s closing price of N1,925.08/£1 and declined against the Euro by 20 Kobo to finish at N1,688.74/€1 compared with the preceding session’s N1,688.54/€1.
Similarly, the Nigerian Naira lost N5 against the greenback in the black market to quote at N1,465/$1 compared with the previous day’s value of N1,460/$1 but closed flat against the Dollar at the GTBank FX counter at N1,453/$1.
Fluctuations in trading range is expected to continue during the festive season as traders expect the Nigerian currency to be stable, supported by intervention s by to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)in the face of steady dollar demand.
Support is also expected in coming weeks as seasonal activities, particularly the stylised “Detty December” festivities, will see inflows that will give the Naira a boost after it depreciated mildly last month, according to a new report.
“As the festive Detty December season intensifies, inbound travel, tourism spending, and diaspora inflows are expected to provide moderate support for FX liquidity,” analysts at the research unit of FMDA said in its latest monthly report for November.
Traders cited by Reuters expect that the Naira will trade within a band of N1,443-N1,450 next week, buoyed by improved FX interventions by the apex bank.
Meanwhile, the crypto market was down as the US Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, likely rose in September—moving in the wrong direction. However, volatility indices show no signs of major turbulence.
If the actual figure matches estimates, it would mark 55 straight months of inflation above the US central bank’s 2 per cent target. The sticky inflation would strengthen the hawkish policymakers, who are in favour of slower rate cuts.
Ripple (XRP) depreciated by 4.5 per cent to $2.08, Solana (SOL) went down by 3.8 per cent to $138.11, Litecoin (LTC) shrank by 3.1 per cent to $83.23, Dogecoin (DOGE) slid by 2.5 per cent to $0.1463, Cardano (ADA) declined by 2.1 per cent to $0.4368, Bitcoin (BTC) fell by 0.9 per cent to $91,975.45, Binance Coin (BNB) crumbled by 0.9 per cent to $899.41, and Ethereum (ETH) dropped by 0.7 per cent to $3,156.44, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) closed flat at $1.00 apiece.
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