Economy
Outlook for Africa’s Oil & Gas Sector Positive—Report
By Dipo Olowookere
A new report by PwC has disclosed that the outlook for Africa’s oil & gas industry remains positive amid difficult operating and economic headwinds.
Tough economic and external conditions have placed pressure on oil & gas companies to be more cost-effective and efficient. As a result, companies have adopted to a low-cost environment, which promises to be even more beneficial given the current recovering oil price.
In the PwC’s annual Africa Oil & Gas Review released at the 25th Africa Oil Week conference, 2018 held in Cape Town, PwC Africa Oil & Gas Advisory Leader, Mr Chris Bredenhann, said, “Africa’s oil & gas companies have weathered the downturns and capitalised on the upswings focusing their efforts on new ways of working, reducing costs and utilising new technology.”
Companies have taken to restructuring their portfolios with a focus on established regions, less exploration, higher value plays with low break-even-cost, and projects with shorter lead times and lower risk. The industry has also renewed its focus on delivering projects on-time and on-budget.
As the oil price is steadily rising towards pre-collapse levels, the outlook for the industry is hopeful. “It is, however, important for companies to avoid falling into the cost inflation trap that could eat into the profitability gains that should follow from the rising oil price. Keeping up capital discipline and further improving productivity will yield sustained results for the industry,” Bredenhann adds.
Despite positive developments, the oil & gas industry still faces numerous and persistent challenges around talent shortages, regulatory uncertainty, political instability, corruption and fraud, and a lack of infrastructure.
Notwithstanding the challenges, Africa does offer plenty of opportunities in the form of unexplored hydrocarbon demand fuelled by population growth, urbanisation and the emergence of a growing middle class.
PwC’s Africa Oil & Gas Review, 2018 analyses what has happened in the last 12 months in the oil & gas industry within the major and emerging markets. This edition focuses on the expert opinions of a panel of industry players from across the value chain who share their views of oil & gas in Africa.
At the end of 2017, Africa is reported to have 487.8 tcf of proven gas reserves, 7.1% of global proven reserves, only marginal changes to the prior year. Africa’s share of global oil production has slightly increased by 0. 3% since last year to 8.7% standing at 8.1 million bbl/d. The main contributors continue to be Nigeria, Angola, Algeria and Egypt. Libya also increased its production by 102.9% in 2017, placing it as the fourth-largest oil producer in Africa with an 11% share moving Egypt into fifth position.
Regulatory developments in Africa
Regulatory uncertainty continues to be a major barrier to the development of the oil & gas industry in Africa. Overall, there are some positive developments that demonstrate that governments are reacting to the new environment. Despite some notable improvements around regulation, there is still a high level of uncertainty in a number of jurisdictions, the report said.
In South Africa, the proposed Amendment Bill to the Mineral and Petroleum Resources Development Act (MPRDA) may be withdrawn, and there are plans to split oil & gas from mining formulating separate legislation, it added.
Growth and development
The report stated that the outlook for the oil & gas industry is looking more optimistic with the Brent oil price having broken through the $80 mark at the time of compiling our report. Although there has been a significant increase in the number and size of final investment decisions (FIDs) in 2018, the industry is not what it was. New finds are much smaller and leaner than they were in prior years. Deepwater oil has been given preference over gas, and oil fields offering the highest rates of return are attracting investment. There is also a preference for brownfield over greenfield developments.
The current oil price recovery reflects a tight supply and demand balance, as well as an indication that we are heading towards a potential global supply crunch in the early 2020s. Exploration spend in Africa and globally is starting to pick up as well. It is safe to assume that this trend will continue if the current higher price environment is sustained.
Digital disruption in Africa
There have been a number of developments in digital transformation in the oil & gas industry, not only globally, but also in Africa. A number of new technologies have been deployed by the industry across the value chain. Some examples include: the use of drones to inspect remote facilities thereby reducing safety and health risks; the use of robots to undertake monitoring and safety checks, which also reduces the safety risks for human operators; and the use of virtual reality to simulate the drilling of wells remarkably reducing drilling costs. Digital disruption is here to stay, and African companies must embrace this to reap the rewards.
Looking to the future
Africa is the world’s fastest economic region with a growing population that is becoming more urbanised. According to PwC’s Strategy& estimates, Africa’s total energy demand is forecast to increase by 60% to 28 000 trillion btu by 2030.
Based on different potential trajectories for economic development, energy access policy and climate mitigation strategies, researchers have put forward various alternative scenarios for energy production and consumption on the continent in the years ahead.
Hydrocarbons are expected to continue to play a major role in the energy mix that will satisfy Africa’s growing energy needs. Major gas resources on the continent including Mozambique, Nigeria, Angola, Tanzania, Senegal and Mauritania, could augment the key position of gas as an energy source for Africans. In the low-carbon context, gas also plays the role of a transition fuel before a wider switch to renewables, a development which is likely to take longer in Africa than on other continents.
The increase in population and the demand for freight transport will also see an increased demand for liquid fuels. Many African countries are ‘thinking refineries’ at various scales. Countries that are considering new refineries or upgrades include Angola, Equatorial Guinea, Uganda, Nigeria, Republic of Congo, Ghana, São Tomé & Príncipe, and Zambia. Given projected population growth and refined fuels consumption, an estimated additional 3.4 bbl/d of refined fuels will be needed to meet Africa’s needs by 2030.
The role of National Oil Companies (NOCs)
The role that NOCs play as operators and custodians of the orderly development of the hydrocarbon industry in their respective countries cannot be underestimated. Almost 30 of Africa’s NOCs are involved at various points of the value chain and at different levels of maturity.
The PwC analysis delves deeper into the NOC landscape to provide a perspective on the future that NOCs could face.
“We have identified four potential scenarios along two axes: the level of regulatory stability and the level of diversification within a country’s economy,” it said.
These scenarios depict a number of possible future pathways and provide industry players with some options with regard to how they might respond to these potential outcomes and their impact on operations.
NOCs should consider these scenarios to enable them to design strategies that avoid the pitfalls identified.
The African oil & gas industry has been through some difficult years in the wake of the oil price crash. However, the industry has restructured itself and is more competitively placed in terms of operational performance, the report stated.
“It is critical that the sector retains its capital discipline and adopts digital technologies if the hard-earned wins in cost savings are to be retained. Progress in addressing corruption and improving corporate governance will also need to be maintained. Moreover, in the longer term, the energy transition will continue to impact the sector’s dynamics with implications for oil demand,” Bredenhann concludes.
Economy
How Investor Confidence Is Reshaping Africa’s Digital Business Landscape
Africa’s business environment is undergoing a quiet but significant transformation. Over the past few years, investor confidence in African-focused digital companies has grown steadily, driven by stronger business fundamentals, improved technology infrastructure, and a deeper understanding of local markets. What was once viewed as a high-risk frontier is increasingly seen as a long-term growth opportunity with scalable returns.
This shift is evident in the types of startups attracting capital today. Investors are backing platforms that combine technology, recurring revenue models, and cross-border appeal—signaling a new phase in how digital businesses are built and funded across the continent.
The Evolution of Venture Capital in Africa
Early venture capital activity in Africa was largely experimental. Funding rounds were modest, timelines were short, and expectations focused on proof of concept rather than long-term scale. Today, the narrative has changed. Investors are deploying larger checks and looking beyond survival metrics toward sustainable growth, operational efficiency, and regional expansion.
Digital-first companies are particularly attractive because they can scale without heavy physical infrastructure. With mobile penetration rising and digital payments becoming more common, African startups now have access to broader audiences than ever before. This scalability has become a key selling point for investors seeking exposure to emerging markets without excessive operational complexity.
Why Digital Platforms Are Drawing Increased Attention
One notable trend is growing investment interest in digital entertainment and online platforms. These businesses benefit from high engagement, repeat usage, and diverse monetization opportunities. Unlike traditional industries, digital platforms can adapt quickly to consumer behavior and expand into new markets with relatively low marginal cost.
Recent investment activity reflects this shift. A clear example is the funding momentum around winna casino, which highlights how investors are backing tech-enabled platforms positioned for global reach rather than local limitation.
The significance of such deals goes beyond the individual company. They point to a broader willingness by investors to support African-linked digital businesses operating at the intersection of technology, finance, and entertainment.
Technology as a Driver of Business Scalability
Technology is no longer just an enabler—it is the core value proposition. Businesses that leverage automation, cloud infrastructure, and data-driven decision-making are better positioned to scale efficiently. This is particularly relevant in Africa, where legacy systems can slow down traditional business models.
Digital platforms reduce friction by offering faster transactions, better user experiences, and real-time insights. From an investor’s perspective, these efficiencies translate into lower operating risk and higher growth potential. Companies that build with scalability in mind from day one are more likely to secure follow-on funding and strategic partnerships.
Africa’s Changing Perception Among Global Investors
Global investors are increasingly reassessing Africa’s role in their portfolios. Rather than viewing the continent solely through the lens of risk, many now see demographic advantage, underpenetrated markets, and long-term consumer growth.
A growing body of international business analysis supports this outlook. Forbes, for instance, has highlighted why global investors are paying closer attention to African tech and digital businesses as part of broader emerging market strategies:
This change in perception is critical. It influences not only the volume of capital flowing into Africa but also the quality—bringing in investors with longer horizons, stronger networks, and deeper operational expertise.
The Importance of Governance and Trust
Despite the optimism, capital is not deployed blindly. Investors remain highly selective, particularly when it comes to governance, compliance, and transparency. Digital businesses operating in regulated or semi-regulated spaces are expected to demonstrate strong internal controls and responsible growth strategies.
For African startups, this means that trust has become a competitive advantage. Companies that invest early in governance structures, risk management, and user protection are better positioned to attract serious institutional capital. In the long term, this focus strengthens the overall business ecosystem.
What This Means for African Entrepreneurs
For founders, the evolving investment climate presents both opportunity and responsibility. Access to capital can accelerate growth, but it also raises expectations around execution, reporting, and accountability. Investors now expect African startups to operate at global standards while maintaining local relevance.
This environment rewards entrepreneurs who think beyond short-term gains and focus on building resilient, scalable businesses. Those who can balance innovation with discipline are more likely to thrive in an increasingly competitive funding landscape.
Looking Ahead
Africa’s digital economy is entering a more mature phase. Venture capital is no longer just fueling ideas—it is shaping business models, governance practices, and long-term strategies. As investor confidence continues to grow, digital platforms that demonstrate scalability, trust, and clear value propositions will define the next chapter of Africa’s business story.
For business leaders, policymakers, and investors alike, one thing is clear: Africa’s digital transformation is not a future promise—it is already underway, and capital is following conviction.
Economy
Dangote Refinery Seeks Naira-For-Crude Policy Expansion
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has called for the expansion of the federal government’s Naira-for-Crude policy, describing this initiative as a strong indication of support for domestic refining.
The newly appointed Managing Director of the oil facility, Mr David Bird, made this call during a press briefing at the refinery complex in Lagos, noting that the scheme has significantly contributed to stabilising the the local currency and should be expanded in Nigeria’s overall economic interest.
“I think it’s a great testimony to the level of government support that we get,” he said on Wednesday.
According to Mr Bird, between 30 and 40 per cent of the refinery’s current crude feedstock is sourced under the Naira-for-Crude arrangement, with ongoing monthly engagements between the refinery and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited to determine suitable crude grades.
“Let’s say between 30 and 40 per cent of our current crude diet is on the crude-for-naira programme. We engage with NNPC monthly on the grades to buy because there is a lot of variability in the Nigerian crude grades.
“So, we have a preference, we have a wish list, and we continue to work with government support to ensure we get the right allocations,” he explained.
Mr Bird noted that while the refinery is optimised for Nigerian crude, supply volumes fluctuate.
He said approximately 30 per cent of crude supply is obtained through the Naira-for-Crude programme, another 30 per cent from Nigerian crudes purchased on the spot market, while the remaining 40 per cent comes from international grades, adding that even at that, the refinery would welcome an expansion of the policy.
“We would always like to enhance the crude-for-naira programme. Even at that level, five cargoes a month, for example, it has contributed to the stabilisation of the naira enormously,” Bird said, in response to a question.
Mr Bird added that the refinery has the capacity to absorb additional crude volumes if allocations are increased, noting that continued engagement with NNPC and the federal government is ongoing.
“We would have the potential to take further grades if and when, and we continue to engage with NNPC and the government on further increasing that,” he said, pointing to global geopolitical uncertainties as a reason Nigeria should prioritise domestic crude supply.
“It is in the country’s interest to supply domestically, because geopolitically it’s a very volatile situation. If Venezuelan crude comes back on the market, for example, it is in Nigeria’s interest to secure an offtaker through domestic refining,” he said.
The Naira-for-Crude policy, which began in October 2024, allows local refineries to purchase crude oil from NNPC in Naira instead of US Dollars. This approach reduces pressure on foreign exchange, lowers transaction costs, stabilises the local currency, and strengthens domestic refining capacity.
Economy
Edun Signals Interest Rate Cuts if Inflation Keeps Cooling
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Wale Edun, has said there may be cuts in the interest rate if Nigeria’s inflation keeps cooling.
Mr Edun revealed this during an interview on the sidelines of the Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week, as reported by Bloomberg.
According to Mr Edun, a sustained decline in inflation would create room for additional rate cuts, helping to reduce borrowing costs and easing the government’s debt servicing burden.
Although the Minister has no control over interest rate decisions – a primary responsibility of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), he said lower inflation and borrowing costs would free up revenue currently spent on servicing debt and improve the fiscal balance.
Mr Edun, according to Bloomberg, commended the apex bank for what he described as “excellent” progress in curbing inflation, attributing recent improvements to aggressive monetary tightening implemented over the past two years.
The CBN had more than doubled its policy rate from 2022 levels in a bid to rein in inflationary pressures, before implementing a 50 basis-point cut in September that brought the monetary policy rate to 27 per cent.
The move followed a sharp moderation in inflation from its late-2024 peak. As at November 2025, headline inflation rate eased to 14.45 per cent down from 16.05 per cent recorded in October. On a year-on-year basis, the headline inflation rate was 20.15 percentage points lower than the 34.60 per cent recorded in November 2024.
The Finance Minister also revealed that the government’s borrowing strategy would remain flexible and market-driven, with decisions on domestic and external issuances guided by pricing, timing, investor appetite, and adherence to debt limits outlined in the medium-term expenditure framework.
Mr Edun also said the Bola Tinubu-led administration is intensifying efforts to boost revenue mobilisation and reduce reliance on borrowing, particularly through structural reforms and improved efficiency in revenue collection.
He noted that the government is rolling out directives requiring ministries, departments, and agencies (MDAs) to halt cash collections and migrate fully to automated payment platforms to improve transparency and reduce leakages.
According to him, the federal government is also counting on privatisation proceeds, divestments by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC), and increased crude oil production to support budget funding.
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