Economy
Pension Assets to Grow 8.5% in 2020—Report
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
Despite the slowdown in economic activities in 2020, a report has shown that the Nigerian pension industry is expected to record a growth this year, with the pension assets rising by 8.5 per cent.
According to the Agusto & Co’s 2020 Pension Industry Report, as at 31 December, the Nigerian Pension Industry’s assets under management stood at N10.2 trillion (or $28.3 billion at $1= N360) as at December 31, 2019, representing an 18.6 per cent growth from the N8.3 billion recorded at the end of 2018 and a 17.2 per cent compound annual growth rate over the last five years.
Growth in managed assets has been increasingly driven by investment returns rather than additional contributions over the last five years.
Specifically, 63.4 per cent of growth was attributable to investment returns earned on managed assets with the outstanding 33.6 per cent representing net annual contributions in the last five years.
It is believed that the sector has evolved over the years from one with predominantly public sector participants running a defined benefit scheme to a mandatory defined contribution system for all government and private-sector employees in the country.
The 2004 pension reform redefined retirement planning in Nigeria and led to a significant boost in the number of enrolees and the size of managed assets in the Industry.
Going forward, Agusto & Co said it expects a considerable slowdown in AuM growth driven by lower contributions as unemployment is expected to rise significantly given the weakened macroeconomic environment following the COVID-19 pandemic.
“Job losses are expected to trigger higher benefit withdrawals as disengaged enrolees seek access to the 25 per cent lump sum drawings permitted by PenCom regulations for employees out of work for more than three months.
“Investment performance is also expected to fall considerably in line with the lower yields on government securities, which account for over 70 per cent of the industry’s asset allocation.
“Nonetheless, we note positively the favourable demography of enrolees, which has over 73.8 per cent below the age of 50 indicating relatively low expectations of liquidity events such as lump- sum payments, annuities and programmed withdrawals.
“We expect AuM to continue to grow albeit at a much slower pace of 8.5 per cent in 2020 and rising to 12 per cent in 2021, which is well below the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.2 per cent over the last five years,” it said.
The report noted that despite the notable strides in pension reforms and double-digit average growth in the last five years, Nigeria continues to lag behind some emerging markets in terms of pension penetration, with a pension AuM to GDP ratio of 6.8 per cent.
The sector’s AuM to GDP ratio falls below those of Kenya and South Africa with 13.2 per cent and over 120 per cent respectively but compares well with Ghana’s 5 per cent.
The weak pension penetration has been due in part to the previous exclusion of Nigeria’s informal sector (which accounts for an estimated 65 per cent of GDP) and the low compliance rate of eligible organisations.
“Nonetheless, we note increased efforts by the Commission to ensure compliance and drive enrolee participation. Most notable is the micro pension scheme (MPS).
“The micro pension scheme allows previously excluded self-employed persons and organisations with less than three persons to participate in the contributory pension scheme under more flexible rules.
“We remain unconvinced by the structure of the scheme for informal sector operators, given that compliance is optional and prior lessons from the National Health Insurance Scheme indicate voluntary compliance is unlikely to yield significant levels of enrolment,” it said.
Agusto & Co’s 2020 Pension Industry Report provides detailed information on the structure and competitive environment of the Industry as well as the regulatory environment and its impact on the Industry’s performance.
Recent developments and key issues including the most anticipated transfer window, minimum pension guarantee, multi-fund structure and the micro pension scheme are also discussed in detail.
Furthermore, the report provides detailed analysis of the Industry’s financial condition as well as the performance of the individual funds (funds I-IV). Agusto & Co has also ranked PFAs by share of managed assets and fund performance in the report.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The National Pension Commission (PenCom) has defended its decision to allow Pension Fund Administrators (PFAs) to invest in the parent companies of their custodians, insisting that adequate safeguards are in place to protect contributors’ funds.
The director-general of the pension regulator, Ms Omolola Oloworaran, speaking on Tuesday during the Meet the Press Briefing at the Presidential Villa, Abuja, said the commission’s decision to relax the investment restriction followed a comprehensive risk assessment that found minimal conflict of interest.
She explained that under PenCom’s investment regulations, PFAs are only permitted to invest pension assets in carefully selected instruments that meet stringent criteria, including profitability, strong credit ratings and proven track records.
According to her, the commission regularly reviews its investment regulations, conducts routine examinations and spot checks on PFAs to ensure strict compliance with established risk management guidelines.
“PFAs cannot just go into the stock market and buy any kind of stock. There are strict guidelines. Companies must demonstrate profitability, have a proven track record and satisfy other criteria before pension funds can invest,” she said.
Ms Oloworaran noted that each PFA also operates under the oversight of a board, an investment committee and a risk management committee, providing additional layers of governance to safeguard contributors’ funds.
She said PenCom recently issued a circular allowing PFAs to invest in the parent companies of their custodians after determining that the potential conflict of interest was negligible.
The PenCom boss explained that the parent companies involved are largely Tier-1 banks, including First Bank, United Bank for Africa (UBA) and Zenith Bank, which she described as A-rated institutions with strong financial foundations.
She said the policy was intended to widen investment opportunities for pension funds without compromising safety.
Using Stanbic IBTC as an example, Ms Oloworaran explained that if its custodian is Zenith Bank, the previous restriction prevented the pension administrator from investing in Zenith Bank shares despite the bank’s strong performance.
“We reviewed the risks and any potential conflict of interest and found the risks to be very low. That is why we opened that investment window,” she said.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
Analysts at Meristem Research have predicted that the inflation rate for June 2026 in Nigeria should marginally rise to 15.95 per cent on a year-on-year basis from the 15.93 per cent reported in May 2026.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is expected to release inflation numbers for last month later today, Wednesday, July 15, 2026.
In its report sighted by Business Post, Meristem Research said it expects inflationary pressures to re-emerge across key economies in the near term, as the re-escalation of the US-Iran conflict has reignited upward pressure on global oil prices.
It disclosed that this marks a sharp reversal from most of June, when the ceasefire between the two countries helped drive oil prices lower, raising expectations of some relief on the inflation front.
With conflicts now flaring up again, oil prices are likely to increase again, and the anticipated easing in energy-driven inflation may not materialise as broadly as earlier envisaged.
“Nonetheless, some relief is likely from the food segment, where robust supply conditions across major producing regions and softening demand should continue to ease food price pressures,” it stated.
The team also explained that it projected a 15.95 per cent inflation rate because of the lingering effects of persistent food price pressures.
“However, we expect core inflation to moderate as the sharp reversal in energy prices begins to filter through to transportation, distribution, and other energy-related costs, easing underlying price pressures.
“On a month-on-month basis, the combined effect of lower petrol prices, a relatively stable Naira, and the gradual pass-through of reduced energy costs across the supply chain should exert further downward pressure on inflation.
“Based on our assessment, food inflation is expected to remain the key swing factor, as seasonal pre-harvest supply constraints are likely to offset some of the gains from lower logistics costs,” it said.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The duo of Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc and Afriland Properties Plc weakened the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by 1.61 per cent on Tuesday, July 14.
CSCS Plc saw its stock value drop N9.08 to close at N82.40 per share compared with the preceding session’s N91.48 per share, and Afriland Properties Plc slid by 17 Kobo to sell at N15.00 per unit versus N15.70 per unit.
The losses recorded by the two securities pulled back the market capitalisation by N41.64 billion to N2.546 trillion from N2.587 trillion, and cracked the NASD Security Index (NSI) by 69.36 points to 4,242.31 points from 4,311.67 points.
It was observed that the exchange witnessed two price advancers during the session, led by FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc, which gained N1.37 to end at N151.37 per share compared with the previous day’s N150.00 per share, and Food Concepts Plc chalked up 5 Kobo to settle at N2.50 per unit versus N2.45 per unit.
The volume of securities traded by market participants surged by 50.7 per cent to 13.7 million units from the previous 9.1 million units, while the value of securities went down by 79.7 per cent to N65.2 million from N320.4 million, and the number of deals crashed by 3.6 per cent to 27 deals from the previous session’s 28 deals.
At the close of transactions, Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc remained the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis, with the sale of 3.4 billion units for N8.4 billion, trailed by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc, which exchanged 2.3 billion units valued at N6.5 billion, and CSCS Plc with 73.9 million units transacted for N5.2 billion.
GNI Plc also closed the trading day as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, followed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units traded for N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units valued at N415.7 million.
