Economy
Peter Obi Screams: Nigeria’s Debt Could Reach N200trn by End of 2025
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Labour Party presidential candidate in the 2023 general elections, Mr Peter Obi, has expressed deep concern over Nigeria’s rapidly escalating debt profile, warning it could reach N200 trillion by the end of the year.
In a statement on his X handle, Mr Obi lamented that the country’s fiscal trajectory could compromise future generations and worsen living conditions for millions of citizens.
His warning comes one week after the Senate approved a fresh wave of borrowing for the country.
According to Mr Obi, the latest approvals include $21 billion, €2.2 billion, and ¥15 billion in new external loans for the 2025–2026 fiscal cycle, in addition to a N750.98 billion domestic bond issuance and a €65 million grant.
These measures, he said, bring the nation’s total public debt to approximately N187 trillion, with projections suggesting it could exceed N200 trillion by year-end.
“With an already existing public debt of about N149.39 trillion as at the first quarter of 2025, adding the approved loans of about N37.2 trillion brings our current total debt to about N187 trillion, with concerns that our debt might likely be over N200 trillion by the end of 2025,” he said.
“We are accumulating exponential levels of unsustainable debt with little or nothing to show for it in critical areas such as education, healthcare, electricity generation, and security,” Mr Obi stated.
He said Nigeria’s pre-rebased GDP stood at N269.2 trillion (around $180 billion), meaning total borrowing now represents nearly 70 per cent of the previous GDP. Even after the recent GDP rebasing, which revised the figure upward to N372.8 trillion (approximately $243.7 billion), Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio now hovers at 50.16 per cent, making it the highest in its history.
He emphasised that while Nigeria reported a year-on-year debt increase of N27.72 trillion and a quarter-on-quarter rise of N4.72 trillion, key development metrics remain stagnant or deteriorating.
Mr Obi warned that Nigeria continues to lag on basic infrastructure with roughly 135,000 kilometres of Nigeria’s 195,000 km road network remaining unpaved, adding that electricity supply has stagnated below 5,000 megawatts for a population of over 200 million.
He also cited alarming statistics on poverty and malnutrition, noting that 133 million Nigerians—around 63% of the population—are now classified as multi-dimensionally poor.
He called attention to a report from Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), also known as Doctors Without Borders, that disclosed the deaths of 652 children in Northern Nigeria due to malnutrition, singling out Katsina State as one of the most affected.
“This is a country blessed with enormous resources, yet nobody should go to bed hungry,” he said. “A persistent deficiency in leadership has thrown the majority of our citizens into increasing poverty.”
He stressed that borrowing is not inherently detrimental if targeted at productive, high-impact investments with transparent and measurable outcomes. However, he accused the current administration of fiscal irresponsibility.
“This pattern of borrowing without accountability and transformational impact is simply mortgaging the future of our children,” he stated. “The government should show minimum consideration for the future of young and unborn Nigerians.”
He appealed for economic reform, urging the government to cut wasteful spending, block revenue leakages, and prioritise investments in human capital.
“It is time to stop this fiscal indiscipline. We must build a New Nigeria, where leadership is responsible, development is people-centred, and every kobo borrowed or spent delivers measurable impact,” he quipped.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil prices climbed about 2 per cent to a one-month high on Tuesday after the US reportedly reimposed a naval blockade on Iran, which will reduce oil flows from the region through the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent futures rose by $1.43 or 1.7 per cent to settle at $84.73 per barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude increased by $1.20 or 1.5 per cent to $79.34 a barrel.
Brent closed at its highest since June 12, and WTI at its highest since June 15. The closing price increase kept Brent in technically overbought territory for a second day in a row for the first time since March.
Before the Iran war, about 20 per cent of global oil supplies flowed through the strait.
US President Donald Trump stepped back from a proposal to charge a 20 per cent fee to guard the Strait of Hormuz as part of the conflict with Iran, saying he would instead seek investment deals with Gulf states.
US forces had carried out waves of attacks for the third night after Iran said it had closed the strait. President Trump on Monday reinstated a blockade of Iranian shipping and proposed the fee, but hours before the fee was to take effect, the American President said the strait was open to all shipping traffic except that of Iran.
The renewed attacks have fed doubts that a memorandum of understanding signed last month will lead to a permanent halt in the war that has disrupted global energy supplies and stoked inflation fears.
Data showed that US consumer inflation slowed more than expected in June as energy prices retreated, but financial markets still expect an interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve.
The Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh on Tuesday vowed to “do my job” if challenged by President Trump, who has said he wants the US central bank to cut interest rates and boost economic growth.
The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the US fell by 564,000 barrels in the week ending July 10. In the week prior, US crude oil inventories fell by 399,000 barrels.
Although commercial crude oil inventories excluding the SPR have been falling rapidly for three months now, shedding just over 60 million barrels over the last twelve weeks, US crude inventories are only down 9.2 million barrels so far this year. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its report later on Wednesday.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The 700,000 barrels per day Dangote Petroleum Refinery has begun pricing fuel products for the local market in US Dollars amid crude supply challenges.
The company cited difficulties securing sufficient crude under the government’s Naira-for-crude programme and rising global oil prices as reasons for the development.
The Naira-for-crude programme, launched in October 2024, allowed domestic refiners to purchase crude in the local currency and reduced pressure on the foreign exchange market.
Mr Edwin Devakumar, the vice president of the Dangote Group, said the refinery had been absorbing a currency mismatch by selling products in Naira while sourcing crude in Dollars, but limited crude supply under the Naira-for-crude programme had undermined the arrangement’s viability.
Dangote has now set the ex-depot price of petrol at $0.779 per litre, diesel at $1.087 per litre and aviation fuel at $0.942 per litre, according to a pricing template circulated to marketers.
Although the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited increased Dangote’s allocation to seven cargoes in May from about five previously, the refiner has said it requires 13 to 15 cargoes a month and has been forced to import the remainder at international prices.
The decision could boost demand for Dollars among fuel marketers and make domestic fuel prices more sensitive to exchange-rate fluctuations.
Dangote Refinery is steadily ramping up operations toward full capacity after a gradual start since late 2023. In April alone, it received 21 separate crude cargoes, with all supplies coming from West Africa, mainly Nigerian crude grades, with one cargo from Cameroon; however, it boosted international cargoes in recent months.
The refinery has been broadening the range of crude grades it processes as part of its ambition to operate as a fully merchant refinery. In 2025, about 70 per cent of the refinery’s crude imports came from Nigeria, while 24 per cent originated from the United States.
Dangote plans to double the refinery’s processing capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day by the end of 2028, a level that would enable it to process about 80 per cent of Nigeria’s recent crude oil production in a single day.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) is seeking a reduction in import duty exemptions, which rose to N34 trillion, limiting its ability to increase its revenue generation threshold.
The Comptroller-General of the Customs Service, Mr Adewale Adeniyi, disclosed that the value of import duty exemption certificate approvals increased to that level in 2025, describing the policy as one of the major factors restricting its revenue generation.
At an investigative session of the Senate Committee on Finance with revenue-generating agencies in Abuja on Monday, Mr Adeniyi explained that government fiscal policies have continued to impact the revenue-generating capacity of the Customs Service, both positively and negatively.
“The NCS would have generated significantly higher revenue over the years if not for government-approved import duty waivers and other external factors affecting collections,” he said.
He added that the Import Duty Exemption Certificate scheme, introduced in March 2020, accounted for about N34 trillion in approvals in 2025, with nearly 60 per cent covering duty-free importation of military hardware due to Nigeria’s prevailing security challenges.
Other government-backed duty waivers, he noted, covered the importation of Compressed Natural Gas (CNG), electric and hybrid vehicles, healthcare equipment and medical supplies, industrial machinery and manufacturing inputs, as well as food import intervention programmes.
While acknowledging the impact of the waivers on Customs revenue, Mr Adeniyi argued that fiscal policy should not be assessed solely on the basis of revenue generation but also on its broader economic and social objectives.
He, however, urged the federal government to establish stronger monitoring mechanisms to ensure beneficiaries of duty waivers deliver the intended economic outcomes, including lower consumer prices, increased local production and improved healthcare access.
The committee also expressed displeasure over the absence of several heads of government agencies invited to the hearing, including the Nigerian Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA), Small and Medium Enterprises Development Agency of Nigeria (SMEDAN), Industrial Training Fund (ITF), and the Federal Medical Centre (FMC), Jabi.
The Chairman of the Senate Committee on Finance, Mr Sani Musa, warned that the affected chief executives must appear at the committee’s next sitting or face severe sanctions under the Senate’s rules.
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