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Economy

Positive Demand Outlook Firms Oil Prices

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oil prices driving up Trump

By Adedapo Adesanya

Crude oil prices continued their positive movement on Thursday as the market held on to improved upgraded forecasts for demand as major economies recover from the coronavirus pandemic.

The price of the Brent crude futures improved by 0.36 per cent or 24 cents to trade at $66.82 per barrel, while the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose by 0.49 per cent or 31 cents to sell at $63.46 per barrel.

The increase in the value of the commodity was supported by the shrinking of crude oil inventories in the United States as well as higher crude oil demand outlooks from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The US crude inventories were down by 5.9 million barrels last week, the EIA data showed, more than double analysts’ expectations for a 2.9 million barrels decline.

This was further supported around the premise of improved oil demand as OPEC in its Monthly Oil Market Report increased its 2021 global oil demand outlook by 190,000 barrels per day

The IEA, on its part, increased its global oil demand outlook by 230,000 barrels per day from its previous report.

According to OPEC, the 2021 global oil demand is now expected to average 96.5 million barrels per day. The IEA is now estimating that global oil demand will average 96.7 million barrels per day, according to its April report and this would be supported by improved economic forecasts and accelerated vaccination programs.

The market is also holding on to strong economic data from China as the country continues to recover from the impact of the pandemic.

Adding to bullish sentiments are geopolitical tensions rising in Russia/Ukraine and Israel/Iran. According to reports, Russia has commenced a military build-up along its border with Ukraine, as fears mount over a possible escalation in hostilities in the region.

The Eastern European country has in recent weeks amassed tens of thousands of troops as well as tanks and artillery near Ukraine’s eastern border. It also mobilised troops in the annexed Black Sea region of Crimea, which it seized in March 2014.

Between Israel and Iran, the Joe Biden administration in the US wants to revive the accord between Iran and six world powers, which places limits on the state’s nuclear programme in return for relief from punishing economic sanctions.

Israel strongly opposes the nuclear deal and has vowed to stop Iran from building an atomic bomb — a goal Iran has always denied pursuing.

Both countries have long embroiled in a shadowy war, with Israel often striking Iran-allied forces in Syria and since last month, both countries have accused each other of a number of maritime attacks.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

Brent Jumps to $114 as Trump Threatens to Bomb Iran’s Oil Wells

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Brent oil price increased by 1.3 per cent or $1.48 to $114.00 per barrel on Monday as the Iran war entered its fifth week, with President Donald Trump threatening to destroy the Islamic Republic’s oil wells.

Brent has soared about 55 per cent in March, a record for the contract, dating back to its inception in 1988. The previous monthly record was a 46 per cent gain in September 1990 during the first Gulf War.

Also, the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were up $3.45 or 3.5 per cent to $103.09 a barrel, as Mr Trump vowed to target power plants and Kharg Island unless the Strait of Hormuz was reopened. Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, ⁠a chokepoint for roughly a fifth of global oil and gas supplies, continues to be a point of focus.

In an interview with the Financial Times on Sunday, the US president said his preferred option in Iran would be to “take the oil,” likening it to the country’s actions in Venezuela, where the US effectively gained control over the country’s oil sector after the capture of its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

His remarks come as the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran entered another week, with attacks spreading across the region, heightening risks to energy infrastructure and driving a sharp rally in crude prices.

Previously, the American president said he would pause attacks on Iran’s ​energy network until April 6 and ​that the US and Iran have been ⁠meeting “directly and indirectly”, but Iran described US proposals to end a month of war in the Middle East as “unrealistic, illogical and excessive” and unleashed more missiles on Israel.

Meanwhile, US ​Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday that the global oil market is well supplied, with more boats travelling through the Strait of Hormuz. Two Chinese container ships sailed through the ​strait on their second attempt to leave the Gulf after turning back on Friday.

Market analysts noted that the potential for further disruption through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a key shipping channel linking the Gulf of Aden to the Red Sea, could push prices even higher.

Yemen’s Houthis said Saturday they had launched missiles at Israel, marking their first direct involvement in the US- Israel war against Iran.

Prices eased a bit after the Group of Seven (G7) finance leaders signalled ​readiness to act to stabilise energy markets. Alongside their central banks, they indicated readiness to take “all necessary measures” to safeguard energy market stability ​and limit broader economic spillovers from recent volatility.

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Economy

Nigeria Exports 950,000 Barrels of Cawthorne Blend Crude

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited has marked a major milestone with the introduction and successful lifting of 950,000 barrels of Cawthorne Blend crude into the global market, a move aimed at boosting Nigeria’s production output and supporting its quota targets.

The feat was achieved through the FSO Cawthorne vessel, Nigeria’s first new crude oil terminal in 50 years, according to a statement by the Sahara Group on Monday, as the company said it welcomed the development.

It was recently reported that the country would introduce a new light sweet crude called Cawthorne in March. The launch of the new grade is part of Nigeria’s broader push to lift production, which has been constrained for years by crude oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and security challenges in the Niger Delta.

Cawthorne crude, which has an API gravity of 36.4, is similar in quality to Nigeria’s flagship Bonny Light, a grade widely valued by refiners for its high yields of gasoline and diesel.

The introduction of the grade could increase Nigeria’s crude and condensate supply from about 1.65 million barrels per day to roughly 1.7 million barrels per day for the rest of the year, depending on operational stability and market demand.

“Over the weekend, the first shipment of 950,000 barrels from FSO Cawthorne, Nigeria’s newest oil terminal, was initiated following its licensing and gazetting by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC)”, the statement read in part.

FSO Cawthorne serves as a critical offshore production support asset, providing storage and offtake capabilities for crude produced from OML 18 and nearby producing assets.

On its part, Sahara Group, a global energy and infrastructure conglomerate, reiterated the strategic role of FSO Cawthorne in strengthening Nigeria’s energy security through its reliable production, storage, and evacuation infrastructure.

Sahara Group also recognised the advanced technologies deployed on FSO Cawthorne, noting that the facility incorporates cutting‑edge systems supported by artificial intelligence‑enabled monitoring and robust QHSE frameworks, enhancing operational efficiency, asset integrity, safety performance, and environmental stewardship.

Sahara commended NNPC for its leadership of Oil Mining Lease (OML) 18 and surrounding assets in the eastern Niger Delta, where Sahara Group is a joint operator and joint venture partner, noting that the company’s collaborative approach continues to drive continuous improvement and value delivery across Nigeria’s upstream sector.

Mr Tosin Etomi, Head, Commercial and Planning at Asharami Energy (a Sahara Group Upstream company), said the crude lifting from FSO Cawthorne represents a defining moment for the asset, the OML 18 partnership, and the wider oil and gas sector.

“The successful commencement of crude lifting from FSO Cawthorne is a significant milestone for the OML 18 partnership and a strong demonstration of what can be achieved through shared vision, technical discipline and committed collaboration,” Mr Etomi said.

Mr Etomi noted that the milestone aligns with Sahara Group’s broader upstream strategy, which is focused on building a resilient, scalable, and responsible production portfolio anchored on strong partnerships, asset optimisation, and long‑term value creation.

“The transition of FSO Cawthorne into active export is consistent with our upstream growth strategy, prioritising operational excellence, indigenous participation and infrastructure capable of sustainably supporting Nigeria’s production ambitions,” he said.

He noted that Sahara Group’s upstream portfolio includes a growing oilfield services division, which is redefining innovation, efficiency, and sustainability in the sector.

“Our expanding oilfield services capabilities are integral to our upstream vision, enabling smarter operations, improved efficiencies, and responsible resource development,” Etomi said.

“Sustainable social impact interventions and community participation have been key drivers of our upstream success, and we remain committed to aligning our operations with the highest global environmental, social, and governance standards.”

Mr Etomi also commended host communities and key regulatory and operational institutions, including the NUPRC, the Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA), the Nigeria Customs Service, and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), for their support in ensuring seamless operations.

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Economy

GCR Affirms Champion Breweries Ratings, Upgrades Outlook to Stable

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EnjoyCorp Champion Breweries

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The national scale long-term rating of BBB+(NG) and the short-term issuer rating of A2(NG) assigned to Champion Breweries Plc have been affirmed by GCR Ratings.

The rating agency, in a statement, also disclosed that the brewery firm’s outlook on the ratings has been upgraded to stable from rating watch evolving.

The outlook was revised by GCR after the successful acquisition of the Bullet brand by Champion Breweries, while sustaining leverage metrics within those consistent with the current rating level despite the spike in debt.

The outlook reflects the expectation that Champion Breweries’ expanded business profile would support strong earnings growth and cash generation, which could offset the emerging strain on gearing and liquidity.

It was also noted that the affirmed ratings of Champion Breweries were underpinned by strong earnings quality and expected product and geographical diversification following the recent acquisition. These strengths are partly offset by the ramp-up of debt for working capital and partial funding of the acquisition, though gearing metrics remain modest.

Last month, Champion Breweries completed the acquisition of the Bullet brand from UK-incorporated Sun Mark International Limited through a special purpose vehicle (SPV), namely EnjoyBerv (Netherlands).

Under the shareholding agreement, Champion Breweries owns 80 per cent while Sun Mark retains a minority interest in the SPV.

The company’s product portfolio is, therefore, expanded from two limited-reach brands previously to a more diversified base with multiple offerings.

The Bullet brand’s multi-market presence across West and Central African markets, combined with its sizeable share of the regional ready-to-drink energy segment, further strengthens the assessment of the company’s competitive position.

However, the realisation of the expected synergy from the acquisition is dependent on the effective management of execution and integration risks, including supply chain management and the company’s ability to consolidate access to Bullet’s dominant markets.

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