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Economy

Positive Demand Outlook Firms Oil Prices

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oil prices driving up Trump

By Adedapo Adesanya

Crude oil prices continued their positive movement on Thursday as the market held on to improved upgraded forecasts for demand as major economies recover from the coronavirus pandemic.

The price of the Brent crude futures improved by 0.36 per cent or 24 cents to trade at $66.82 per barrel, while the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose by 0.49 per cent or 31 cents to sell at $63.46 per barrel.

The increase in the value of the commodity was supported by the shrinking of crude oil inventories in the United States as well as higher crude oil demand outlooks from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The US crude inventories were down by 5.9 million barrels last week, the EIA data showed, more than double analysts’ expectations for a 2.9 million barrels decline.

This was further supported around the premise of improved oil demand as OPEC in its Monthly Oil Market Report increased its 2021 global oil demand outlook by 190,000 barrels per day

The IEA, on its part, increased its global oil demand outlook by 230,000 barrels per day from its previous report.

According to OPEC, the 2021 global oil demand is now expected to average 96.5 million barrels per day. The IEA is now estimating that global oil demand will average 96.7 million barrels per day, according to its April report and this would be supported by improved economic forecasts and accelerated vaccination programs.

The market is also holding on to strong economic data from China as the country continues to recover from the impact of the pandemic.

Adding to bullish sentiments are geopolitical tensions rising in Russia/Ukraine and Israel/Iran. According to reports, Russia has commenced a military build-up along its border with Ukraine, as fears mount over a possible escalation in hostilities in the region.

The Eastern European country has in recent weeks amassed tens of thousands of troops as well as tanks and artillery near Ukraine’s eastern border. It also mobilised troops in the annexed Black Sea region of Crimea, which it seized in March 2014.

Between Israel and Iran, the Joe Biden administration in the US wants to revive the accord between Iran and six world powers, which places limits on the state’s nuclear programme in return for relief from punishing economic sanctions.

Israel strongly opposes the nuclear deal and has vowed to stop Iran from building an atomic bomb — a goal Iran has always denied pursuing.

Both countries have long embroiled in a shadowy war, with Israel often striking Iran-allied forces in Syria and since last month, both countries have accused each other of a number of maritime attacks.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

OTC Securities Market Returns to Green Territory With N30bn Gain

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NASD OTC securities market

By Adedapo Adesanya

The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange returned to positive territory after it chalked up 1.18 per cent on Wednesday, June 24.

The NASD Security Index (NSI) was up during the session by 50.02 points to 4,289.36 points from the previous session’s 4,239.34 points, and the market capitalisation got a N30.03 billion boost to settle at N2.574 trillion compared with Tuesday’s closing value of N2.544 trillion.

The growth witnessed yesterday was influenced by two securities, led by Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc, which improved its value by N4.68 to N79.68 per share from N75.00 per share. Food Concepts Plc grew by 25 Kobo to sell at N2.75 per unit versus the preceding day’s N2.51 per unit.

At the close of trading activities, the value of securities bought and sold by market participants went up by 1,387.1 per cent to N82.9 million from the preceding session’s N5.6 million, and the volume of securities soared by 1,162.2 per cent to 2.7 million units from the previous 211,671 units, while the number of deals was halved by 50 per cent to 19 deals from 38 deals.

Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc remained the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units valued at N8.4 billion, followed by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc with 2.3 billion units sold for N6.5 billion, and CSCS Plc with 68.3 million units transacted for N4.7 billion.

GNI Plc also closed the session as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, followed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units exchanged for N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units traded for N415.7 million.

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Economy

Naira Depreciates to N1,380/$ in Official Market

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Naira 4 Dollar

By Adedapo Adesanya

The value of the Naira further depreciated by 0.72 per cent or N9.90 against the United States Dollar to N1,380.54/$1 in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Wednesday, June 24, in contrast to Tuesday’s exchange rate of N1,370.64/$1.

Equally, the local currency weakened against the Pound Sterling in the same official market yesterday by N4.88 to close at N1,815.63/£1 versus the previous session’s N1,810.75/£1, and lost N2.61 on the Euro to sell at N1,563.63/€1 compared with the preceding day’s N1,561.02/€1.

However, at the GTBank forex counter, the domestic currency maintained stability against the US Dollar during the session at N1,380/$1, and at the parallel market, it closed flat at N1,395/$1.

Rising FX payments and a strong US Dollar have generally put significant pressure on emerging-market currencies, like the Naira.

According to the data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), NFEM interbank FX turnover was relatively steady at $125.588 million across 126 deals, from $125.314 million the previous day.

Interbank FX activity among financial institutions has fluctuated amid a sharp slowdown in forex market interventions by the apex bank, with more than six weeks of no support for the local currency.

Meanwhile, Nigeria’s foreign reserves increased further to $51.142 billion, while global oil prices entered the lower $70s.

Meanwhile, in the cryptocurrency market, nearly $1 billion worth of futures positions were liquidated across crypto majors to tokenised versions of stocks such as Micron Technology Inc (MU) and Sandisk (SNDK).

The dip triggered roughly $430 million in long liquidations on Bitcoin-tracked futures, or bets on higher prices that were automatically closed as the price fell.

Thursday’s PCE inflation print, the Fed’s preferred price gauge, is the next data point that could move the market in either direction, with Dogecoin (DOGE) down by 2.4 per cent to $0.0771.

Further, Bitcoin (BTC) fell by 1.9 per cent to $61,584.02, Ethereum (ETH) shed 1.6 per cent to trade at $1,645.50, Ripple (XRP) depreciated by 1.6 per cent to $1.08, Binance Coin (BNB) slumped by 1.5 per cent to $570.95, Cardano (ADA) crashed by 1.1 per cent to $0.1495, and Solana (SOL) slipped by 1.0 per cent to $69.19.

But TRON (TRX) gained 0.1 per cent to finish at $0.3288, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 each.

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Economy

Brent Crude Slides Below $74 as Hormuz Supply Fears Ease

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The price of Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, declined by $3.34 or 4.3 per cent on Wednesday to settle ​at $73.74 per barrel, its lowest level before the start of the Iran war on February 28, 2026.

Also, the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures lost $2.87 or 3.9 per cent during the session to sell for $70.34 a barrel.

The development came as supply concerns eased with more stranded oil tankers exiting the Strait of ‌Hormuz, which had been blocked since late February.

Market analysts noted that crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are similar to ​what they were before the start of the Iran war, as tankers exit the key waterway with the help of military escorts. Around 20 million barrels of crude oil have exited the Strait of Hormuz in the last 24 hours.

Before the war began in late February, roughly 125 ships passed through the chokepoint each day, but current traffic remains a fraction of that.

Reuters reported that three stranded tankers ​carrying 5 million barrels of crude oil exited the strait on Wednesday, with two heading to Asia, shipping data showed, as the interim deal between Iran and the US began to unlock more supply stuck in the Gulf.

As Middle Eastern producers scramble to move crude that has spent months stranded in the Persian Gulf, tanker rates have exploded higher. The cost of hiring a tanker in the Gulf has nearly doubled in just a week, jumping from around $106,000 per day to more than $190,000 per day. For some very large crude carriers (VLCCs) hauling cargoes through Hormuz, daily earnings have surged to nearly $470,000.

The US also authorised Iranian oil sales this week, easing decades-old sanctions as it pushes toward a final peace deal with Iran in return for commitments on nuclear inspections and free transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

Oman said it would keep ​the strait open to shipping without imposing ⁠tolls and had designated two temporary routes north and south of the existing shipping lane to facilitate the safe passage of vessels leaving the region.

Crude inventories in the US remained tight ​on strong refining demand ⁠and amid a release of oil from the government’s emergency stash. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) said crude stocks, including commercial and those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, fell by 15.1 million barrels to 743.3 million barrels in the week ended June 19, which was the lowest level since 1984.

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