Economy
Redesign Gone Wrong? – Costly Cashless
How does the central bank retrieve 84.5% of a country’s currency in circulation in just 90 days? This was one of the many questions seemingly begging for answers when Nigeria’s apex bank announced its plan to redesign the three higher value notes of the naira (N200, N500 and N1,000) on October 26, 2022.
Fast-forward three months and three weeks (a week before the general elections), and a majority of Nigerians are now confronted with a shortage of naira notes that is proving disruptive to lives and livelihoods.
Given the analyst consensus that a 90-day window was simply insufficient to complete the project, it is difficult to conceive a scenario where the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) did not anticipate the challenges which have accompanied this transition period.
President Muhammadu Buhari, in his address to Nigerians on February 16, 2023, said… “I am not unaware of the obstacles placed on the path of innocent Nigerians by unscrupulous officials in the banking industry, entrusted with the process of implementation of the new monetary policy. I am deeply pained and sincerely sympathise with you all over these unintended outcomes.”
In what appears to be a clear case of buck-passing by the federal government, the blame is being laid squarely on the banking industry’s purported failings and not any lapses in the policy’s design or hasty execution.
Depending on whom you ask, a performance appraisal of the CBN’s execution of the redesign project would range from grossly unprepared to poorly perceived.
In our opinion, the CBN failed to do enough through the media (television, radio, newspapers, new media) to effectively sensitise the public, particularly the rural dwellers, and manage expectations.
Most Nigerians assumed a simple exchange of old Naira notes for new ones. However, if we are to believe claims by the Kaduna State Governor, Nasir El-Rufai, the CBN printed circa N400 billion in new notes, leaving a shortfall of N2.3 trillion.
So, while the exercise has reportedly reeled in 80% (N2.1 trillion) of the N2.7 trillion held outside the banking system thus far, the average Nigerian is once again confronted with a test of resilience. Cash has become commoditized, hoarded by many, and now commanding outrageous premiums of up to 20-30% at Point-of-Sale (PoS) outlets.
The Road to Perdition is Famously paved with Good
Public outrage has degenerated into violent protests in some cities, with incidents of vandalism and arson at several banks’ facilities – and PoS outlets. The cash crunch and the uncertainty surrounding the policy are fanning a long-simmering fire of public resentment, triggered by deteriorating economic conditions and recently exacerbated by unending petrol shortages.
The result has been a significant loss of manhours, logistics constraints to many businesses and possible threats to the successful execution of the general elections.
The CBN, when launching the redesign project, outlined the objectives clearly. Perhaps its most compelling arguments centred on the need to combat terrorism and reduce counterfeiting.
The others largely revolved around driving the cashless policy through a shift away from cash and toward increased adoption of digital banking channels for transactions. This was underscored by a need to deepen financial inclusion (currently at 64%) and drive an efficient payment system that would improve the efficacy of monetary policy tools in combating inflation.
While the design of the policy gave room for underhand dealings by a privileged few, where the banking industry has really fallen short is in the capacity of the current digital payment infrastructure, which was already plagued by ‘transaction failures’ and an apparent inability to implement instant refunds, to handle the surge in transaction volumes.
For context, in the five years leading up to 2021, electronic payment surged by 386% to N272 trillion, accounting for over 94% of the entire value of transactions in Nigeria’s banking system. Financial institutions also responded accordingly by upscaling digital infrastructure to support the increasing adoption of electronic banking.
Recently, the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System (NIBSS) reported a spike in the value of total cashless transactions in Nigeria to N39.58 trillion in January 2023 – a year-on-year increase of 45.41% – largely on the back of the CBN’s redesign and cash withdrawal policy.
Nevertheless, on evidence, the abrupt shift to electronic payments, which the current cash shortage has necessitated, has overwhelmed the banking industry’s digital payments infrastructure.
Nigerians are currently grappling with an unprecedented rate of electronic transaction failures. To further complicate matters, many transactions have not only failed, but refunds are taking days, even weeks in some instances, leaving many stranded and constraining commercial activity.
Unintended Consequences
The hardest hit by the policy have been the most vulnerable members of the population (the poor, the unbanked and the rural dwellers).
Nigeria is still a largely cash-dependent economy, with informal economic activity accounting for approximately 65% of GDP and being dominated by Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs). These MSMEs account for up to 96% of businesses and 86.3% of the national workforce. These are mostly cash-based businesses – particularly the micro-enterprises, which account for 99.8% of Nigeria’s 37.1 million MSMEs.
Given the low levels of education and exposure of a significant number of Nigerians in this category, many of whom live in rural areas with inadequate or non-existent telecommunications infrastructure, a quick and seamless transition to digital payment channels was always unlikely.
In addition, while mobile phone ownership in Nigeria is estimated at 81% by Enhancing Financial Innovation & Access (EFinA), internet penetration is still a mere 44.3%, as 60% of Nigerians live in rural areas where network outages were widespread even before the latest wave of transaction failures, and coverage was often non-existent, limiting access to traditional banking services. The Unstructured Supplementary Service Data (USSD), launched by banks and TelCos to enable deeper mobile banking penetration in communities lacking mobile data, has also been plagued by network-related setbacks.
The disruption to transactions, trade (domestic & foreign), productivity and all-round economic activity is likely to be significant enough to trigger a contraction in GDP in Q1’23 and possibly a loss of livelihoods for many.
Many cash-dependent businesses are being pushed to the brink. For example, cocoa farmers are currently unable to pay their labourers and transporters, jeopardising production and exports. The cash constraint is also likely to compel consumers to prioritise spending on necessities, leaving many businesses, particularly MSMEs, with decreased sales and heightened credit risks.
Worse still, living standards could decline further, particularly for many rural dwellers, as an inability to access cash could limit access to critical services like healthcare, stoking public discontent even further.
On the flip side, some of the biggest beneficiaries of the current lapses in electronic transactions have been Fintechs like Opay, Moniepoint, Paga, and Kuda, amongst others, which are reportedly far less prone to glitches and charge significantly lower transfer fees.
Whether this is down to lower transaction volumes than traditional banks or the capacity of their digital infrastructure, or both, it remains unclear.
However, getting traditional banks to invest in expanding their digital infrastructure in a period of rapid currency depreciation (most of the required infrastructure is imported) and, just as crucially, enhancing their cybersecurity will be crucial in convincing Nigerians to go cashless.
Some of the tier 1 banks spent an average of 5.4% of their operating expenses on ‘IT and related expenses” in 2021. Raising this expense in the face of shrinking margins would become increasingly difficult, as it is likely to further impinge on profitability.
Final Thoughts
Many contend that the solution to the immediate problem is rather straightforward: print more of the redesigned naira notes while gradually phasing out the old ones.
There is, however, a contrarian view suggesting that agreeing to the aforementioned is not to have a full appreciation of the nuances at play.
Perhaps the most significant takeaway from President Buhari’s recent address is clarity over who makes decisions and who must approve any deviation from the current position on which naira banknotes are legal tender.
The President concludes his address by noting that the policy’s success in minimising the influence of money in politics was a “positive departure from the past”. Given the timing of the policy, many argue that curbing vote-buying was the overarching objective.
The question is whether the long-term benefits of redesigning the naira outweigh the short-term costs and inconvenience of Nigerians being practically compelled to do away with cash. The hope is that the average Nigerian, now confronted with even greater hardship amid the current cost of living crises, is not a mere pawn in a political chess game.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The chairman of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Group Plc, Mr Umaru Kwairanga, says enabling entrepreneurship requires more than access to funding.
He said this at a workshop held in Kano under the theme Unlocking Growth – Harnessing the Capital Market for SME Growth.
The event was organisation by the NGX in partnership with the Bank of Industry (BoI) as part of their financing advocacy.
Mr Kwairanga noted that the right institutional structures and market platforms are critical to unlocking sustainable growth.
“Kano provides a fitting backdrop for this engagement, not only as a historic commercial hub but as a gateway to significant untapped potential. The priority is to connect that potential to capital and the frameworks required for long-term growth,” he stated.
The programme was put together to integrate small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) into Nigeria’s formal capital market.
The Kano workshop follows the inaugural edition held in Lagos last year, signalling a more structured push by both institutions to bridge the gap between Nigeria’s SME ecosystem and long-term capital.
Participants were equipped with insights on financing pathways, governance structures, and long-term growth strategies within the capital market.
On his part, the chief executive of NGX Limited, Mr Jude Chiemeka, emphasised the central role of SMEs in strengthening market depth and resilience, noting that recent market performance continues to reflect investor confidence despite macroeconomic pressures.
“Through initiatives like this, we are demystifying the capital market and demonstrating that with the right structure and governance, SMEs can access capital to scale sustainably,” he said.
An Executive Director for MSME at BOI, Mr Oluwatoyin Ahmed Edu, said the bank remains focused on bridging financing gaps for businesses that may not yet meet listing requirements.
“Where viable enterprises require capacity building before accessing the market, BOI is positioned to provide the necessary support to prepare them for that transition,” he noted.
Delivering remarks on behalf of the Emir of Kano, Mr Shehu Muhammed Dankade highlighted the region’s strong entrepreneurial base, particularly the growing participation of women-led businesses, describing it as a signal of resilience and economic potential.
The workshop featured detailed presentations from NGX on listing requirements, corporate governance, and the use of the NGX Growth Board as a platform for raising long-term capital.
It also created space for direct engagement with SME operators across Northern Nigeria, offering insights into their challenges, growth ambitions, and readiness to access structured financing.
The initiative aligns with NGX Group’s broader strategy to position SMEs as a critical engine of economic growth, while strengthening the institutional pathways that enable businesses to transition from informal operations to investment-ready enterprises.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria’s inflation rate increased in March 2026 to 15.38 per cent from 15.1o per cent in February, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Wednesday.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased to 135.4 in March 2026, higher than the 130.0 in the preceding month by 5.4 points. The spike was likely stoked by the US-Israeli war on Iran, that’s pushed up the cost of fuel and has had a ripple effect in other areas.
At 15.38 per cent, the inflation numbers beat expectations of analysts at Meristem Research, which projected that the inflation rate in Nigeria for the month should come in at 13.59 per cent, after the price of crude oil on the global market soared as a result of the war in Iran, with prices of items growing in Nigeria.
The March 2026 headline inflation rate showed an increase of 0.32 per cent compared to the February 2026 headline inflation rate. However, on a month-on-month basis, the headline inflation rate in March 2026 was 4.18 per cent, which was 2.17 per cent higher than the rate recorded in February 2026 at 2.01 per cent.
This means that last month, the rate of increase in the average price level was higher than the rate of increase in the average price level a month earlier.
Food inflation rate in the review month stood at 14.31 per cent on a year-on-year basis versus 25.22 per cent in the same month of last year. However, on a month-on-month basis, the food inflation rate in March 2026 was 4.17 per cent, which is 0.52 per cent lower than the 4.69 per cent achieved in February 2026.
According to the stats office, “This can be attributed to the rate of change in the average prices of the following products: Yam, Ginger (Fresh), Cassava Tuber, Groundnuts (Shelled), Irish Potatoes, Avenger (Ogbono/Apon) – Dried Ungrinded, Tomatoes (fresh), Cassava Flour sold loose, etc.”
The average annual rate of food inflation for the twelve months ending March 2026 over the previous twelve-month average was 18.21 per cent, which was 17.81 per cent lower than the average annual rate of change recorded in March 2025 at 36.02 per cent.
On a year-on-year basis, in March 2026, the urban inflation rate was 14.64 per cent, and 3.16 per cent on a month-on-month basis, which is 0.61 per cent higher than the 2.55 per cent in February 2026.
As for the rural inflation rate, it was 17.22 per cent in the month under consideration and on a month-on-month basis, it stood at 6.73 per cent versus 0.71 per cent a month earlier.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The federal government has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with an Indian conglomerate, Rashmi Metaliks Group, to boost Nigeria’s steel production.
The agreement, signed by the Minister of Steel Development, Mr Shuaibu Abubakar Audu, on Tuesday in Kolkata, India, was for a projected investment of $1 billion over three years.
This followed the Minister’s tour of the steel plant in Kolkata, where he commended the scale of the operations and advanced technology deployed at the facility.
He also lauded the company’s integrated operations — spanning Direct Reduced Iron (DRI), pig iron, billets, and finished ductile iron pipes — describing them as a strong example of industrial efficiency and excellence in modern steel production.
According to the Minister, Nigeria’s proactive investment drive is already attracting significant global capital.
He noted that the MoU signed with the company represents a major milestone in Nigeria’s efforts to reposition the steel sector, reaffirming President Bola Tinubu’s commitment to revitalising the industry, creating employment opportunities, and conserving foreign exchange through strategic import substitution.
He added that the efficiency of the facility underscored the importance of value addition, innovation, and sustainability in modern steel production, emphasising that the visit further reflected the strengthening economic ties between Nigeria and India in the areas of steel, mining, and manufacturing.
In signing the MoU, Audu highlighted Nigeria’s vast steel potential, noting that the country is transitioning from a raw minerals exporter to a value-adding industrial economy.
He disclosed that Nigeria possesses well over 3 billion tonnes of iron ore reserves, with some deposits grading as high as approximately 67 per cent iron content (Fe), while domestic steel consumption is estimated at about $10 billion annually.
He said that Nigeria aims to become a leading steel hub in Africa under President Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda, which targets crude steel production of approximately 10 million tonnes per annum by 2030.
This is evidenced by recent Foreign Direct Investments in the sector, including a $400 million Stellar Steel plant in Ewekoro, Ogun State and a Chinese-Nigerian joint venture for a modern hot-rolled coil steel plant scheduled to commence operations by November 2026.
Also, African Industries Group (AIG) is completing a fully integrated iron-and-steel plant at Gujeni in Kaduna State. The company has invested $300 million in the Direct Reduced Iron (DRI) and steel unit of the project, and the galvanising and fabrication plant in Ikorodu, Lagos, which was recently commissioned by the Minister.
Energy infrastructure is also being developed to support the growth of the industry. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited, the Ministry of Steel Development, and their partners recently broke ground on five mini-LNG plants in Ajaokuta, Kogi State — a $500 million project aimed at boosting gas supply to the steel industry, with a combined capacity of approximately 97 million standard cubic feet per day.
Mr Audu used the visit to invite additional Indian investors to explore opportunities within Nigeria’s steel sector.
He highlighted prospects for establishing integrated steel plants in Nigeria, deploying Direct Reduced Iron and electric-arc furnace technologies, and developing full value chains for automotive, construction, and infrastructure steel.
He further assured prospective investors that the Nigerian Government remains committed to providing an enabling environment through policy stability, fiscal incentives, and ongoing ease-of-doing-business reforms aimed at protecting investments.
“We are open to credible investors willing to partner with us for mutual growth,” the Minister said.
On his part, the Vice Chairman of Rashmi Metaliks Group, Mr Sunil Kumar Patwari, on behalf of the company, expressed appreciation to the Nigerian delegation for the successful visit to their facilities in Kolkata.
He emphasised that the visit reflects the priority placed on the partnership by the Nigerian Government and assured that, with the necessary support from the Nigerian government, Rashmi Group is committed to delivering on the projects envisioned in the MoU.
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