Economy
Renewed Indian COVID-19 Worries Dampen Oil Prices
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil prices took a beating on Friday, April 30 as previous bullish trends were hammered by concerns of wider coronavirus situations in India and Brazil backed by a decline in crude import in Japan.
Brent crude futures closed $1.31 or 1.91 per cent lower to $67.25 per barrel, while the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures dipped 1.49 or 2.29 per cent to $63.55 per barrel.
India, the world’s third-largest oil consumer, is in a deep crisis, with hospitals and morgues overwhelmed as the number of COVID-19 cases continues to set daily records.
On Friday, the South Asian country reported over 400,000 new daily coronavirus cases, the first time the figure has been surpassed since the pandemic began.
According to reports, thousands of Indians jostle for hospital beds and life-saving oxygen for sick relatives. Hospital beds that become available, especially in intensive care units (ICUs), are occupied within minutes.
Brazil is also facing a similar situation as it has recorded 100,000 deaths between March and April, which were the worst months in the country. Since the start of the pandemic, Brazil has had more than 14.5 million cases. Now, protests are springing in the South American country.
Also depressing the market, data from Japan, another major crude oil importer showed that imports fell 25 per cent in March from a year earlier to 2.34 million barrels per day.
These events helped pull previous optimistic signals to the background such as wider adoption of COVID-19 vaccinations, which is expected to make travelling better as it will lift oil demand.
In addition, several US cities are emerging from lockdown stoking confidence of stronger demand ahead of the summer, known for its high rate of driving.
The upcoming Workers Day holiday in China would also boost fuel demand at the world’s second-largest oil consumer.
Despite the bearish environment, Brent gained more than 7 per cent in April while WTI recorded close to 10 per cent making it the fifth monthly gain out of the last six following demand almost returning to pre-pandemic levels.
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+), responsible for more than a third of global production, has cut output by around 8 million barrels per day, equivalent to over 8 per cent of global demand. The reduction includes a 1 million barrels per day voluntary cut by Saudi Arabia.
However, from May, the group will bring 2.1 million barrels per day back to the market from till July, easing cuts to 5.8 million barrels per day.
Saudi Arabia will also begin to unwind an extra voluntary cut it made in February, March and April.
The extra Saudi cut means OPEC still pumped much less than called for under the OPEC+ deal in April. Compliance with pledged cuts was 123 per cent compared to 124 per cent in March.
Iran, plus fellow OPEC members Libya and Venezuela, are exempt from making cuts, so changes in their output do not affect the compliance rate.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
FGN bonds worth N1.1 trillion would be offered for sale to investors by the Debt Management Office (DMO) today, Monday, August 17, 2026.
The debt instruments would be sold through a primary market auction in three tenors: 10, 15, and 20 years. They are all re-opening notes, meaning they have been issued before and do not have the full term.
According to a circular from the debt office,
Business Post reports that the DMO is selling N250 billion worth of the 10-year note with a coupon of 22.60 per cent, while the N750 billion worth of the 15-year paper with a coupon of 15.45 per cent is to be auctioned, and N100 billion worth of the 20-year instrument with a coupon of 16.2499 per cent is on sale today.
To subscribe to the bonds, investors are required to pay N1,000 per unit, subject to a minimum subscription of N50 million and in multiples of N1,000 thereafter. The notes can be purchased through primary dealer market makers, which are the main commercial banks and others.
It was stated that successful bidders will pay a price corresponding to the yield-to-maturity bid that clears the volume being auctioned, plus any accrued interest on the instrument because the papers are reopening, as their coupons (interest) are already set.
Bondholders will receive their interest payment twice a year, with the bullet repayment on the maturity date.
The FGN bond qualifies as securities in which trustees can invest under the Trustee Investment Act. It also qualifies as government securities for tax exemption and can be used as liquid assets for liquidity ratio calculation for banks.
After the exercise today, the bond will be listed on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited and the FMDQ Securities Exchange to allow for trading in the secondary market, where it can be liquidated before maturity.
The FGN bonds are backed by the full faith and credit of the Federal Government of Nigeria and are charged upon the general assets of Nigeria.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
Analysts at Coronation Asset Management have predicted that the July 2026 inflation rate should come at 15.80 per cent, lower than the 15.91 per cent recorded in June 2026.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is expected to release the actual rate today, Monday, August 17.
Coronation explained that it projected a pullback in the rate because of “three primary forces: a fresh energy price shock stemming from renewed Strait of Hormuz hostilities and a domestic refinery pricing disruption, seasonal harvest-related relief on food prices, and continued relative exchange rate stability.”
The organisation noted that the disinflation trend in the first half of the year remained last month, with the fuel price shock denting the pace of improvement rather than reversing it.
Regarding energy prices, Coronation reported that prices were stable in July, although this coincided with Dangote Refinery’s brief switch to dollar-denominated PMS pricing between July 13 and 22, which sharply reset ex-depot prices higher before naira-based sales resumed at N1,215 per litre following government intervention.
As for the exchange rate, it was also stable last month between N1,362/$1 and N1,383/$1 at the official market.
However, Coronation stressed that the month-on-month inflation may stay marginally firmer into August as the fuel price shock continues to pass through transport, logistics and services pricing, before the year-on-year rate resumes a steadier easing bias in September–October, conditional on Hormuz tensions not escalating further and Dangote Refinery maintaining naira-based pricing.
But it warned that a renewed dollar-pricing episode or a sustained Brent move above $95 per barrel would risk pushing the year-on-year print back toward 16.5 per cent to 17.0 per cent, while a durable de-escalation could see it drift toward 15.0 per cent to 15.3 per cent by October.
“For policy determination, this reinforces our view that the resumption of MPC rate cuts is unlikely before Q4 2026 at the earliest. The MPR has held at 26.50 per cent since February, and we expect the committee to maintain that stance through its next meeting, with any easing conditional on both core inflation turning over and energy-driven cost pressures visibly fading.
“We continue to favour the front end of the curve (1Y T-Bills) over 5–10-year bond instruments, where investors positioning for an early start to a sustained easing cycle may need to defer that thesis further,” their analysts stated.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Cameroon have won their first CAF Women’s Africa Cup of Nations (WAFCON) with a 3-0 victory over tournament debutant Malawi on Sunday evening at the Moulay El Hassan Stadium in Rabat, Morocco.
A brace from Marie Ngah Manga and a goal from Naomi Eto, all scored in the first half, secured the Indomitable Lionesses of Cameroon’s first continental trophy. They previously made the WAFCON final in 2004, 2014 and 2016, but lost all three to Nigeria.
As a result of the win, Cameroon will receive $2 million in prize money from the Confederation of African Football (CAF), double the prize pot from the 2025 WAFCON. Malawi will receive $750,000 as finalists.
Cameroon becomes the fourth nation to win the tournament alongside Nigeria, which has won it a record 10 times, Equatorial Guinea twice, and South Africa once.
The final was a thumping victory for the Lionesses despite expectations of a dual Malawian threat of Chawinga sisters Temwa and Tabitha. The Scorchers were unable to match Cameroon’s technical precision in the midfield nor their tenacity in front of goal.
The victory is also inspiring as Cameroon did not initially qualify for the tournament but was admitted last November as the result of a spontaneous decision by CAF to expand the WAFCON format from 12 teams to 16 for the first time. Mali, Ivory Coast and Egypt were also admitted by the expansion due to their high rankings by the Federation of International Football Association (FIFA).
The tournament was a shining light for goalkeeper Michaely Bihina as the 22-year-old Benfica product proved instrumental in Cameroon’s eventual triumph in Morocco. In the quarter-finals against Nigeria, she denied the Super Falcons the chance to equalise, while against Morocco in the WAFCON semifinals, she was solid between the sticks — saving a penalty in full time and then going on to be superb in a shootout against host Morocco.
Cameroon will be joined by Malawi, Algeria, and Morocco as Africa’s representatives at the 2027 FIFA Women’s World Cup in Brazil. Ghana and South Africa have also qualified for the international play-offs.
