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Economy

Rising Decline in Demand Threatens Oil Market

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crude oil market

By Adedapo Adesanya

Oil prices pulled back a bit during the last trading session of last week as the market continues to go back and forth after the resurgence of the coronavirus cases in crucial markets around the world, spelling doom for demand.

However, this week may prove difficult as the market is beginning to overlook the cuts of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) as conditions could worsen if a second-wave of COVID-19 causes more disruptions in demand.

There have been expectations for a stable oil regime as traders gave producers the benefit of the doubt following an extension to the current level of reduction and impressive compliance.

But this has lately been overlooked as worries over the resurgence of the coronavirus pandemic has taken grip of the market as top oil consuming states in the United States went into partial lockdown.

Cases of COVID-19 outbreaks were also reported in areas that include Australia, New Zealand, and China, prompting authorities to impose restrictions again.

In addition, other factors that could encourage investors to lighten up long positions include poor refining margins, high oil inventories and the resumption of US production.

A new survey by the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank showed more than half of oil executives in the US who cut production in previous months are expected to resume some output by the end of July.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported last week another build in crude oil inventories, this time of 1.7 million barrels for the week ending June 19 after market analysts were looking for a small inventory build of 299,000 barrels.

Also, another industry player in the US, the Energy Information Association (EIA) reported last Wednesday a 1.4 million-barrel increase in crude oil inventories for the week to June 19, with fuel inventories booking mixed results. Traders were looking for a build of 1.2 million barrels. This spells worries for traders who may have sell lower.

This seems to be the scenario as the market opened with the International market, Brent Crude is down 2 percent at $40.19 per barrel while the WTI is trading down 1.87 percent at $37.77 per barrel.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

Senate Targets March 31 Passage of 2026 Budget

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2026 budget tinubu

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Senate President, Mr Godswill Akpabio, has announced that the upper chamber will pass the 2026 Appropriation Bill on March 31, following a brief adjournment for the Sallah break.

Speaking before the Senate adjourned plenary, Mr Akpabio said standing committees would continue working during the recess, particularly on ongoing budget defence sessions and coordination with the Senate Committee on Appropriations.

“I hope the Leader will put pressure on the Committee on Appropriations to harmonise the report of the 2026 Appropriation Bill by that date.

“This is so that when we resume, we can try our best to pass the budget without requiring further concurrence or harmonisation.

“Leadership must work together to ensure everything is in order. The House of Representatives has already adjourned to conclude budget processes and will also reconvene on March 31.

“On that day, we hope to pass the national budget in tandem with the Senate.”

Earlier, the Senate Committee on Appropriations had tentatively fixed Tuesday, March 17, for the final consideration and passage of the N58.47 trillion 2026 Appropriation Bill.

To meet the timeline, the committee, at a special session held in January, approved February 2 to 13 for budget defence by Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs) at the committee level.

As part of efforts to ensure an inclusive and transparent process, the committee also scheduled February 9, 2026, for a public hearing on the budget proposal.

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, in December, presented the N58.47 trillion 2026 budget proposal to a joint session of the National Assembly, outlining the government’s priorities anchored on economic stability, infrastructure expansion, security and social investment.

The budget was hinged on assumptions including oil production of 1.84 million barrels per day, an oil price benchmark of $64.85 per barrel, and an exchange rate assumption of ₦1,400 to the Dollar.

Following the presentation, the Senate passed the appropriation bill for first and second readings, paving the way for detailed consideration by relevant committees.

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Economy

Cardoso Eases Naira Devaluation Fears

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Yemi Cardoso Coordinated Digital Payment Reforms

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Mr Yemi Cardoso, has eased fears of any devaluation of the Naira anytime soon, saying the country’s ongoing monetary and foreign exchange reforms have restored confidence in the currency and strengthened the financial system.

Speaking while delivering a keynote address at the Annual Distinguished Alumni Lecture held in celebration of Founders’ Day of the St. Gregory’s College Old Boys Association in Lagos, the apex bank governor said, “These reforms have restored pride in our currency and strengthened confidence in our financial system.”

Mr Cardoso explained that the CBN remains focused on restoring price stability and bringing inflation down to single digits, noting that although the objective will take time to achieve, it remains central to the apex bank’s policy direction.

“Our goal remains to bring inflation down to single digits. This cannot happen overnight. External shocks will continue to occur, and global developments will always have some impact. But inflation is effectively a tax, and it disproportionately affects the most vulnerable members of society,” he said.

“That is why restoring price stability remains a central objective.”

He noted that the bank’s commitment to transparency and well-governed markets is evident in the reforms carried out in the foreign exchange market, including the elimination of the multiple exchange rate system that previously benefited only a few.

According to him, although some critics argue that the exchange rate appears higher today than it was before the reforms, the key difference lies in accessibility and transparency.

“Some critics argue that the exchange rate today appears higher than it was before the reforms. My response is simple: when the official rate was lower, how many people could actually access foreign exchange at that rate? The answer, in most cases, was very few,” he said.

“Today, the situation is fundamentally different. Foreign exchange is accessible through formal channels, and the system is far more transparent.”

He explained that many Nigerians travelling abroad can now use their naira cards directly instead of searching for foreign currency through informal channels, a development he said represents a major improvement compared to previous years when travellers struggled to access foreign exchange.

Mr Cardoso further revealed that the premium between the official and parallel markets has narrowed sharply from around 50 per cent in 2022 to less than 2 per cent on average in 2025, reflecting improved liquidity and efficiency in the FX market.

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Economy

Four Stocks Drag Unlisted Securities Market Down by 0.56%

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unlisted securities index

By Adedapo Adesanya

Four stocks weakened the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by 0.56 per cent on Thursday, March 12, making it the third consecutive loss this week.

The price losers were led by FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc, which crumbled by N4.71 to N128.07 per share from N132.78 per share. Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc lost N1.98 to close at N78.02 per unit versus the previous day’s N80.00 per unit, First Trust Mortgage Bank Plc declined by 15 Kobo to N1.75 per share from N1.90 per share, and MRS Oil Plc crashed by 10 Kobo to settle at N210.00 per unit compared with the preceding session’s N210.10 per unit.

Consequently, the market capitalisation went down by N14.13 billion to N2.519 trillion from N2.533 trillion, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) dipped by 23.61 points to 4,210.30 points from 4,233.91 points.

There were three price gainers yesterday, led by Okitipupa Plc, which gained N10.00 to N240.00 per share from N230.00 per share, IPWA Plc increased by 45 Kobo to N5.01 per unit from N4.56 per unit, and Afriland Properties Plc appreciated by 35 Kobo to N17.95 per share from N17.60 per share.

During the session, the value of securities surged by 197.4 per cent to N95.0 million from N31.9 million, the volume of securities grew by 185.8 per cent to 3.7 million units from 1.3 million units, and the number of deals improved by 44.4 per cent to 52 deals from 36 deals.

The most active stock by value (year-to-date) was CSCS Plc with 38.4 million units worth N2.4 billion, followed by Okitipupa Plc with 6.4 million units valued at N1.1 billion, and FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc with 6.2 million units sold for N566.8 million.

The most traded stock by volume (year-to-date) was Resourcery Plc with 1.05 billion units traded for N408.7 million, trailed by Geo-Fluids Plc with 130.6 million units transacted for N503.8 million, and CSCS Plc with 38.4 million units worth N2.4 billion.

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