Economy
Rising Oil Price: CBN Urges FG to Save to Avert Another Recession
By Dipo Olowookere
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) on Tuesday warned of a looming fall into another recession if efforts are not being made to boost the economy.
This warning was given at the end of the two-day Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting held in Abuja.
Addressing reporters yesterday, CBN Governor, Mr Godwin Emefiele, noted that during the meeting, the committee identified rising inflation and pressure on external reserves created by capital flow reversal as the current challenges to growth.
According to him, inflationary pressures have started rebuilding and capital flow reversals have intensified as shown by the bearish trend in the equities market even though the exchange rate remains very stable.
Mr Emefiele told newsmen that at the July meeting of the MPC, members had lauded the modest stability achieved in key indicators, including inflation, exchange rate and external reserves, buoyed by a robust level of external reserves with inflation trending downwards for the 18th consecutive month.
However, he emphasised that the gains recorded as at the last time the committee met before yesterday appear to be under threat of reversal, following new data which provides evidence of weakening fundamentals.
He said available data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that real GDP growth declined by 45 basis points as the economy grew by 1.50 percent in the second quarter of 2018, down from 1.95 percent in the preceding quarter, but higher than 0.72 percent in the corresponding quarter of 2017.
“The committee was concerned that the exit from recession may be under threat as the economy slowed to 1.95 and 1.50 percent in Q1 and Q2 2018, respectively,” Mr Emefiele said during the briefing.
He said the committee attributed the slowdown in economy to drop in the oil sector, with strong linkages to employment and growth in other key sectors of the economy.
According to him, in order to avoid another recession, federal government must take advantage of the current rising oil prices to rebuild fiscal buffers, strengthen government finances in the medium term and reverse the current trend of decline in output growth.
“The MPC also called on the fiscal authorities to intensify the implementation of the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) to stimulate economic activity, bridge the output gap and create employment,” he said.
The CBN chief further disclosed that the committee noted that disruptions to the food supply chain in major food producing states due to the combined effects of poor infrastructure, flooding and the on-going security challenges resulted in a rise in food prices, contributing to the uptick in headline inflation.
However, he said the committee expressed optimism that as harvests progress in the coming months, pressure on food prices would gradually recede, while growth enhancing measures would over the medium term have some moderating impact on food prices.
He said the MPC was of the view that even though growth remained weak, the effective implementation of the 2018 capital budget and policies that would encourage credit delivery to the real sector of the economy would boost aggregate demand, stimulate economic activity and reduce unemployment in the country.
Business Post recalled that in the second quarter of 2016, Nigeria slipped into recession and only exited in the second quarter of 2017.
Some weeks ago, the Statistician General of the federation, Mr Yemi Kale, disclosed that the Nigerian economy was presently in a recovery stage.
By Dipo Olowookere
The last trading session of the week on the floor of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited ended on a positive note on Friday with a 0.24 per cent rise.
During the trading day, the market capitalisation of Customs Street was up by N175 billion to N74.534 trillion from the N74.359 trillion recorded on Thursday.
In the same vein, the All-Share Index (ASI) of the local bourse increased by 277.09 points to 118,138.22 points from 117,861.13 points due to sustained bargain-hunting by investors in the banking and commodity sectors.
Data showed that the banking index went up by 1.65 per cent and the commodity sector appreciated by 0.75 per cent.
However, the insurance industry weakened by 1.07 per cent, the industrial goods space lost 0.76 per cent, and the consumer goods and energy counters fell by 0.16 per cent each.
Legend Internet grew by 10.00 per cent to sell for N7.92, Ellah Lakes appreciated by 9.90 per cent to N5.33, Champion Breweries expanded by 9.63 per cent to N8.20, Guinea Insurance rose by 8.70 per cent to 75 Kobo, and eTranzact gained 7.52 per cent to settle at N7.15.
On the flip side, Sunu Assurances declined by 8.62 per cent to N4.56, Northern Nigeria Flour Mills lost 8.00 per cent to trade at N93.20, Thomas Wyatt moderated by 7.83 per cent to N2.00, Livestock Feeds retreated by 6.90 per cent to N8.10, and NEM Insurance contracted by 5.03 per cent to N17.00.
A total of 487.1 million units of shares worth N18.7 billion exchanged hands in 17,421 deals yesterday compared with the 894.0 million units of shares valued at N22.0 billion transacted in 17,257 deals in the previous day, indicating an improvement in the number of deals by 0.95 per cent, and a contraction in the trading volume and value by 45.52 per cent and 15.00 per cent, respectively.
The busiest stock for the session was Fidelity Bank, which traded 38.3 million units valued at N741.5 million, CWG exchanged 25.0 million units for N230.8 million, Zenith Bank transacted 24.9 million units worth N1.2 billion, Coronation Insurance sold 24.4 million units valued at N48.7 million, and Access Holdings traded 23.6 million units worth N517.9 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria led the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange to a 0.03 per cent growth on Friday, June 20.
During the session, the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) went up by 24.15 points to close at 3,320.91 points, in contrast to the previous day’s 3,319.78 points while the market capitalisation added N670 million to finish at N1.944 trillion compared with the N1.943 trillion quoted at the preceding session.
Business Post reports that the share price of FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc was up by 34 Kobo yesterday to N69.38 per unit from N69.04 per unit.
In the final trading day of the week, the volume of securities decreased by 14.9 per cent to 223,039 units from the 262,134 units traded a day earlier, but the value of securities soared by 233.2 per cent to N15.2 million from N4.6 million, and the number of deals slumped by 16 per cent to 21 deals from 25 deals.
At the close of transactions, Impresit Bakolori Plc remained the most active stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 536.9 million units sold for N524.7 million, followed by Air Liquide Plc with 507.2 million units valued at N4.2 billion, and Geo-Fluids Plc with 268.5 million units worth N475.8 million.
Okitipupa Plc was also the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 153.7 million units valued at N4.9 billion, trailed by Air Liquide Plc with 507.2 million units traded at N4.2 billion, and FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc with 40.5 million units sold for N1.7 billion.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira improved its value against the United States Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) on Friday, June 19 amid forex liquidity strain.
During the trading session, the domestic currency gained N2.84 or 0.18 per cent against the greenback in the official market to settle at N1,547.71/$1, in contrast to the N1,550.55/$1 traded in the previous day.
In the same vein, the Nigerian Naira gained N2.76 against the Pound Sterling at NAFEM yesterday to quote at N2,081..36/£1 versus Thursday’s closing price of N2,084.12/£1 and closed flat against the Euro to finish at N1,799.35/€1.
Also, in the parallel market, the Naira appreciated against the Dollar on Friday by N5 to sell for N1,580/$1 compared with the N1,585/$1 it was exchanged a day earlier.
This week, the Naira performed well due to continued investor confidence and market optimism boosted by better non-oil exports over the last few months and offshore FX inflows, which eased forex pressure.
In the week, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased further to 22.97 per cent in May 2025 from the 23.71 per cent recorded in April 2025.
In addition, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) signalled that the health of the country’s banking system was okay amid fears of dividend pause for banks facing possible distress.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market turned bearish on Friday following escalating geopolitical tensions — triggered by Israel launching airstrikes on Iran last Thursday — caused cryptos to drop.
The tensions have only been mounting since, with US President Donald Trump calling for Iran’s “unconditional surrender” and threatening Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Ethereum (ETH) lost 3.8 per cent to sell at $2,424.38, Solana (SOL) fell by 3.5 per cent to close at $140.31, Dogecoin (DOGE) slumped by 2.8 per cent to $0.1630, and Cardano (ADA) declined by 1.3 per cent to trade at $0.5836.
Further, Bitcoin (BTC) tumbled by 1.1 per cent to close at $103,555.63, Ripple (XRP) went down by 0.6 per cent to $2.12, Litecoin (LTC) shrank by 0.6 per cent to $83.97, and Binance Coin (BNB) slid by 0.3 per cent to $643.28, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) closed flat at $1.00 apiece.
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