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Economy

Rising Oil Price: CBN Urges FG to Save to Avert Another Recession

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MPC Meeting CBN

By Dipo Olowookere

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) on Tuesday warned of a looming fall into another recession if efforts are not being made to boost the economy.

This warning was given at the end of the two-day Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting held in Abuja.

Addressing reporters yesterday, CBN Governor, Mr Godwin Emefiele, noted that during the meeting, the committee identified rising inflation and pressure on external reserves created by capital flow reversal as the current challenges to growth.

According to him, inflationary pressures have started rebuilding and capital flow reversals have intensified as shown by the bearish trend in the equities market even though the exchange rate remains very stable.

Mr Emefiele told newsmen that at the July meeting of the MPC, members had lauded the modest stability achieved in key indicators, including inflation, exchange rate and external reserves, buoyed by a robust level of external reserves with inflation trending downwards for the 18th consecutive month.

However, he emphasised that the gains recorded as at the last time the committee met before yesterday appear to be under threat of reversal, following new data which provides evidence of weakening fundamentals.

He said available data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that real GDP growth declined by 45 basis points as the economy grew by 1.50 percent in the second quarter of 2018, down from 1.95 percent in the preceding quarter, but higher than 0.72 percent in the corresponding quarter of 2017.

“The committee was concerned that the exit from recession may be under threat as the economy slowed to 1.95 and 1.50 percent in Q1 and Q2 2018, respectively,” Mr Emefiele said during the briefing.

He said the committee attributed the slowdown in economy to drop in the oil sector, with strong linkages to employment and growth in other key sectors of the economy.

According to him, in order to avoid another recession, federal government must take advantage of the current rising oil prices to rebuild fiscal buffers, strengthen government finances in the medium term and reverse the current trend of decline in output growth.

“The MPC also called on the fiscal authorities to intensify the implementation of the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) to stimulate economic activity, bridge the output gap and create employment,” he said.

The CBN chief further disclosed that the committee noted that disruptions to the food supply chain in major food producing states due to the combined effects of poor infrastructure, flooding and the on-going security challenges resulted in a rise in food prices, contributing to the uptick in headline inflation.

However, he said the committee expressed optimism that as harvests progress in the coming months, pressure on food prices would gradually recede, while growth enhancing measures would over the medium term have some moderating impact on food prices.

He said the MPC was of the view that even though growth remained weak, the effective implementation of the 2018 capital budget and policies that would encourage credit delivery to the real sector of the economy would boost aggregate demand, stimulate economic activity and reduce unemployment in the country.

Business Post recalled that in the second quarter of 2016, Nigeria slipped into recession and only exited in the second quarter of 2017.

Some weeks ago, the Statistician General of the federation, Mr Yemi Kale, disclosed that the Nigerian economy was presently in a recovery stage.

Dipo Olowookere is a journalist based in Nigeria that has passion for reporting business news stories. At his leisure time, he watches football and supports 3SC of Ibadan. Mr Olowookere can be reached via [email protected]

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Economy

Capital Inflows to Nigeria Rise 83.8% to $10.37bn in Q1 2026

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Nigeria's capital inflows

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria attracted $10.37 billion in capital importation in the first quarter of 2026, representing an 83.8 per cent increase from the $5.64 billion recorded in the corresponding period of 2025, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The latest Capital Importation Report released by the stats bureau also showed that capital inflows rose by 60.97 per cent from $6.44 billion recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025.

The report stated, “In Q1 2026, total capital importation into Nigeria stood at $10.37bn, higher than $5.64bn recorded in Q1 2025, indicating an increase of 83.83 per cent. In comparison to the preceding quarter, capital importation increased by 60.97 per cent from $6.44bn in Q4 2025.”

Analysis of the inflows showed that portfolio investment remained the dominant source of foreign capital, accounting for $9.86 billion or 95.09 per cent of the total amount imported into the economy.

The stats office disclosed that foreign direct investment stood at $135.08 million, representing only 1.30 per cent of total capital inflows, while other investments accounted for $374.48 million or 3.61 per cent.

“Portfolio Investment ranked top with $9.86bn, accounting for 95.09 per cent, followed by Other Investment with $374.48m, accounting for 3.61 per cent. Foreign Direct Investment recorded the least with $135.08m, representing 1.30 per cent of total capital importation in Q1 2026,” the report added.

A further breakdown showed that money market instruments attracted the largest share of portfolio investments at $6.50 billion, while investments in bonds amounted to $3.23 billion.

Equity investments under the portfolio category stood at $131.81 million.

The banking sector emerged as the biggest destination for foreign capital during the quarter, attracting $7.55 billion, representing 72.79 per cent of total inflows.

The financing sector followed with $2.43 billion or 23.42 per cent, while the production and manufacturing sector attracted $152.27 million, accounting for 1.47 per cent of total capital imported.

Other sectors that received foreign investments included shares, trading, agriculture, information technology services, telecommunications, oil and gas, transport, construction, healthcare, education, and consultancy services.

The United Kingdom remained Nigeria’s largest source of foreign capital, accounting for $5.08 billion or 49.01 per cent of total inflows. The United States followed with $3.18 billion, representing 30.69 per cent, while South Africa accounted for $983.83 million or 9.49 per cent.

Among financial institutions, Standard Chartered Bank Nigeria Limited received the highest capital inflow during the quarter at $4.41 billion, representing 42.56 per cent of the total.

Stanbic IBTC Bank Plc followed with $2.78 billion or 26.79 per cent, while Rand Merchant Bank handled $930.82 million, accounting for 8.97 per cent.

Other banks that facilitated capital inflows into the country during the period included Citibank Nigeria, Access Bank, First Bank of Nigeria, Guaranty Trust Bank, Zenith Bank, FCMB, Ecobank, Fidelity Bank, and United Bank for Africa.

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Economy

NUPRC Plans Another Licensing Round in Q3 2026

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Oil Licensing Round

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The 2026 licensing round for oil fields is expected to commence in the third quarter of 2026, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has disclosed.

This followed the approval of President Bola Tinubu, who doubles as the Minister of Petroleum Resources.

A statement issued by the spokesperson of NUPRC, Mr Eniola Akinkuotu, on Wednesday said the authorisation is in compliance with the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA).

“We are also fortunate that the President and Minister of Petroleum Resources has approved the 2026 Licensing Round,” the chief executive of the agency, Mrs Oritsemeyiwa Eyesa, was quoted as saying in the statement when she received representatives of Meren Energy (formerly Africa Oil) in Abuja yesterday.

Mrs Eyesan, who expressed satisfaction with the conduct of the 2025 Licensing Round so far, stated that the commercial bid would take place in July, after which the next licensing round would commence.

The NUPRC boss said the heightened participation in the 2025 Licensing Round was a testament to the fact that Nigeria was headed in the right direction.

She said the rise in investments, coupled with the upswing in production, was evidence that Nigeria’s oil and gas sector, under the leadership of President Bola Tinubu, had become attractive.

“We are in the process of finalising the 2026 launch, which will happen by the third quarter at the latest. So, this is the make-or-break point, and we want to make sure we make it,” she stated.

In his remarks, the chief executive of Meren Energy, Mr Oliver Quinn, said the current reforms had inspired the company to increase its investments in Nigeria, hence its interest in asset divestments and licensing rounds, revealing that his company’s investment priority is Africa, of which Nigeria ranks as number one.

“We have operated in Agbami, Akpo and Egina world-class fields. I think till date, in 20 years, about $11bn in capital from our side has gone into these assets, and about $4bn has gone to tax and royalties,” he said, adding, “Nigeria remains the core of our business today because of the quality of these assets.”

According to Mr Quinn, Meren Energy is pressuring its partners on these assets to deepen their investments and then increase overall production, noting that the energy firm was the first in Nigeria to sell crude oil to the Dangote refinery and will continue to fulfil its Domestic Crude Supply Obligation so long as the price remains right.

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Economy

FrieslandCampina Wamco, MRS Oil Buoy NASD Exchange by 0.91%

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NASD securities exchange

By Adedapo Adesanya

The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange extended its gains by 0.91 per cent on Wednesday, June 3, spurred by three price gainers led by FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc, which rose by N13.90 to sell N210.41 per share versus the previous day’s N196.51 per share. MRS Oil appreciated by N10 to N190.00 per unit from N180.00 per unit, and Food Concepts Plc added 5 Kobo to sell at N3.00 per share versus N2.95 per share.

As a result, the market capitalisation increased by N23.91 billion to N2.660 trillion from N2.636 trillion, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) gained 39.97 points to finish at 4,446.27 points, in contrast to Tuesday’s 4,406.30 points.

The NASD exchange witnessed three price losers at midweek, led by Nipco Plc, which shrank by N21.30 to close at N325.97 per unit compared with the previous session’s N347.27 per unit, Nitrox Industrial Gases Plc went down by N1.20 to quote at N24.30 per share versus the preceding session’s N25.50 per share, and Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc weakened to by 69 Kobo to N75.41 per unit from N76.10 per unit.

The volume of trades yesterday significantly improved by 71.5 per cent to 527,221 units from Tuesday’s 307,363 units, as the value of transactions soared by 49.9 per cent to N64.2 million from the preceding session’s N49.9 million, and the number of deals surged by 9.5 per cent to 46 deals from 42 deals.

When trading activities ended for the day, Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc remained the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units valued at N8.4 billion, followed by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc with 2.3 billion units worth N6.5 billion, and CSCS Plc with 64.6 million units exchanged for N4.4 billion.

GNI Plc also ended the session as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units sold for N8.4 billion, followed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units traded for N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units transacted for N415.7 million.

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