Economy
Seplat Plc: Upbeat Outlook in 2018 But Risk Persists

By Dipo Olowookere
Analysts at ARM Research have disclosed that beyond 2017, they expect a more improved performance by Seplat Petroleum Development Company Plc (Seplat).
In its report released yesterday titled ‘Seplat Plc – In the clear,’ ARM research noted that starting off in 2018, it expects the company’s exports to rise largely reflecting the planned completion of the Escravos pipeline which offer a third export route for the company.
ARM Research said it revised its estimates for Seplat and increased its fair value estimate (FVE) to N518.74/share (previously N346/share) after the lifting of the force majeure on the TransForcados Pipeline (TFP) alongside upgrade at the alternative route (Warri refinery).
In the report obtained by Business Post, ARM Research said, “We see substantial upside in earnings in 2018F where we expect weighty ramp-up in exports, benign cost, and earnings derisk (opening 2 additional evacuation routes) to drive a stellar performance. On basis of valuation, Seplat trades on 2018F P/E of 8.6x which is at 30% discount to its EMEA peers.”
Earlier this month, Seplat’s management reported it has received notification from the operator of TPS (SPDC) on the lifting of the force majeure on the pipeline at the end of May 2017.
The company further stated that it has successfully reinstated production levels at the OMLs 4, 38 and 41 to net working interest production levels of 56kboep/d. Also, Seplat informed that upgrade at the Warri refinery will be completed by Q2 17, the report said.
“Our cautious view with regards to project completion and ramp up in export guides our 180 days downtime forecast for 2017E (previously 280 days).
“Consequently, we revise working interest production for 2017E to 39.27bopd (+52% YoY) to drive revenue 48% higher YoY to $376.6million – Oil revenue (+50% YoY to $222.7million) and Gas revenue (+46% YoY to $153.8million).
“We recall from our FY 16 earnings update ‘Striking FY 16 loss: is Seplat off the hook?’ where we noted that Seplat will need its working interest production to cross 32kbopd before the company can post a profit.
“Thus, given the earlier than expected re-opening of TFP to drive higher production, our estimate implies PAT of $27.3million for FY 17E (2016: loss after tax of $166million),” the report said.
Management has indicated it was working with the FG to complete the Escravos pipeline where it expects to export circa. 160kbpd.
Though Seplat expects this to be operational in H2 17, the report said it is less sanguine about the target completion time of the Escravos pipeline owing to government’s delayed completion on similar projects, and therefore see 2018 as a more realistic date for the project.
The combination of an upgrade at the Warri refinery as well as fully operational Trans-Forcados and Escravos pipelines drive its forecast of a 90-day downtime in 2018 with working interest production forecast of 44.8bopd (+14% YoY) and over four-fold increase in PAT to $84.1million, the research report stated.
“Farther out (2019-2022F), Seplat’s intention to make the Escravos pipeline its primary route guides to lower reconciliation cost.
“Consequently, we forecast an average working interest production of 50kbopd and mean PAT of $95million over our forecast period. Another catalyst to earnings is Seplat’s operated $1.3bilion ANOH gas and condensate project which a final investment decision (FID) for the upstream and midstream elements is expected in H2 2017 and should guide a revision to forecast. Irrespective, downside risk to earnings persist.
“Ongoing national security concerns with recurrent threat by new militant groups in the Niger delta region pose risk to production and export volumes from pipeline attacks.
“To add, oil prices below our $40/bbl. Estimate would result in a downward revision to our estimate.
“The stock currently trades at an FY 17E and FY 18F P/E of 22x and 8.6x compared to 15.4x and 12x for its EMEA peers. We forecast a sturdy 5-year earnings CAGR of 55%. Cumulative impact of the adjustments results in an attractive valuation with NAV per share of its oil and gas assets at $2.19 and $0.43 respectively having applied 35% discount to asset values to reflect our risk to future earnings.
“The foregoing, combined with our exchange rate forecast of N360/$ for 2017, drives our FVE higher to N518.74 (previously N346).
“Our FVE is at a 13% premium to the last closing price of N460. We have an OVERWEIGHT rating on the stock,” ARM Research stated in the report.
“All rights reserved. This publication or any portion thereof may not be reproduced or used in any manner whatsoever without the express written permission of ARM Securities Limited.”
Economy
LIRS Urges Taxpayers to File Annual Returns Ahead of Deadline
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
All individual taxpayers in Lagos State have been advised to file their annual tax returns ahead of the March 31 deadline.
This appeal was made by the Lagos State Internal Revenue Service (LIRS) in a statement issued by its Head of Corporate Communications, Mrs Monsurat Amasa-Oyelude.
The notice quoted the chairman of LIRS, Mr Ayodele Subair, as saying that timely filing remains both a constitutional and statutory obligation as well as a civic responsibility.
The statutory filing requirement applies to all taxable persons, including self-employed individuals, business owners, professionals, persons in the informal sector, and employees under the Pay-As-You-Earn (PAYE) scheme.
In accordance with Section 24(f) of the 1999 Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, Sections 13 &14(3) of the Nigeria Tax Administration Act 2025 (NTAA), every individual with taxable income is required to submit a true and correct return of total income from all sources for the preceding year (January 1 to December 31, 2025) within 90 days of the commencement of a new assessment year.
“Filing of annual tax returns is not optional. It is a legal requirement under the Nigeria Tax Administration Act 2025. We encourage all Lagos residents earning taxable income to file early and accurately.
“Early and accurate filing not only ensures full adherence with statutory requirements, but supports effective monitoring and forecasting, which are critical to Lagos State’s fiscal planning and long-term sustainability,” Mr Subair stated.
He further noted that failure to file returns by the statutory deadline attracts administrative penalties, interest, and other enforcement measures as prescribed by law.
To enhance convenience and efficiency, all individual tax returns must be submitted electronically via the LIRS eTax portal at https://etax.lirs.net. The platform enables taxpayers to register, file returns, upload supporting documents, and manage their tax profiles securely from anywhere.
In keeping with global best practices, Mr Subair reiterated that LIRS continues to prioritise digital tax administration and taxpayer support services. He affirmed that the LIRS eTax platform is secure and accessible worldwide. Taxpayers requiring assistance may visit any of the LIRS offices or other channels.
Economy
NNPC Targets 230% LPG Supply Surge to 5MTPA Under Gas Master Plan 2026
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited has said the Gas Master Plan 2026 targets over 230 per cent scale-up of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) supply from 1.5 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) to 5 MTPA this year.
The Executive Vice President for Gas, Power and New Energy at NNPC, Mr Olalekan Ogunleye, unveiled the strategic direction of the NNPC Gas Master Plan 2026, outlining an aggressive expansion drive to position Nigeria as a regional and global gas powerhouse.
Mr Ogunleye delivered the keynote address at the 2026 Lagos Energy Week, organised by the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE), where he detailed plans to accelerate gas development, deepen infrastructure and significantly scale domestic supply.
According to him, the Gas Master Plan targets a scale-up of LPG or cooking gas supply from 1.5 MTPA to 5 MTPA, alongside expanded feedstock for Mini-LNG and Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) projects.
“The NNPC Gas Master Plan 2026 is a blueprint to unlock Nigeria’s vast gas potential and translate it into tangible economic value,” Mr Ogunleye said.
He added that the strategy would also drive exponential growth in Gas-Based Industries, GBIs, strengthening local manufacturing, fertiliser production and power generation.
“Our renewed focus is on turning abundant gas resources into inclusive economic growth and improved quality of life for Nigerians,” he stated.
Mr Ogunleye said the plan aligns with the Federal Government’s Decade of Gas initiative and the presidential production targets of achieving 10 billion cubic feet per day by 2027 and 12 BCF/D by 2030.
Industry leaders at the event, including executives from Chevron Corporation, Esso Exploration and Production Nigeria Limited, Midwestern Oil and Gas Company Limited, Abuja Gas Processing Company and Shell Nigeria Gas, commended the plan and praised Ogunleye’s leadership in driving implementation excellence.
The new blueprint signals NNPC’s determination to anchor Nigeria’s energy transition on gas, leveraging infrastructure expansion and domestic utilisation to consolidate the country’s status as Africa’s largest gas reserve holder.
Economy
Shettima Blames CBN’s FX Intervention for Naira Depreciation
By Adedapo Adesanya
Vice President Kashim Shettima has attributed the Naira’s recent depreciation to the intervention of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in the foreign exchange (FX) market, stating that the currency could have strengthened to around N1,000 per Dollar within weeks if the apex bank had allowed market forces to prevail.
The local currency has dropped over N8.37 on the Dollar in the last week, as it closed at N1,355.37/$1 on Tuesday at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM), after it went on a spree late last month and into the early weeks of February.
However, speaking on Tuesday at the Progressive Governors’ Forum (PGF), Renewed Hope Ambassadors Strategic Summit in Abuja, the Nigerian VP said the intervention was to ensure stability.
“In fact, if not for the interventions by the Central Bank of Nigeria yesterday, the 1,000 Naira to a Dollar we are going to attain in weeks, not in months. But for the purpose of market stability, the CBN generously intervened yesterday.
“So, for some of my friends, especially one of our party leaders who takes delight in stockpiling dollars, it is a wake-up call,” the vice president said.
He was alluding to CBN buying US Dollars from the market to slow down the rapid rise of the Naira.
Latest information showed that last week, the apex bank bought about $189.80 million to reduce excess Dollar supply and control how fast the Naira was gaining value.
The move was aimed at preventing foreign portfolio investors from exiting Nigeria’s fixed-income market, as large-scale sell-offs could heighten demand for US Dollars, intensify capital flight, and exert further pressure on the exchange rate.
Amid this, speaking after the 304th meeting of the monetary policy committee (MPC) of the CBN on Tuesday, Governor of the central bank, Mr Yemi Cardoso, said Nigeria’s gross external reserves have risen to $50.45 billion, the highest level in 13 years.
This strengthens the country’s foreign exchange buffers, enhances the apex bank’s capacity to defend the Naira when needed, and boosts investor confidence in the stability of the Nigerian FX market.
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