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Seplat Plc: Upbeat Outlook in 2018 But Risk Persists

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By Dipo Olowookere

Analysts at ARM Research have disclosed that beyond 2017, they expect a more improved performance by Seplat Petroleum Development Company Plc (Seplat).

In its report released yesterday titled ‘Seplat Plc – In the clear,’ ARM research noted that starting off in 2018, it expects the company’s exports to rise largely reflecting the planned completion of the Escravos pipeline which offer a third export route for the company.

ARM Research said it revised its estimates for Seplat and increased its fair value estimate (FVE) to N518.74/share (previously N346/share) after the lifting of the force majeure on the TransForcados Pipeline (TFP) alongside upgrade at the alternative route (Warri refinery).

In the report obtained by Business Post, ARM Research said, “We see substantial upside in earnings in 2018F where we expect weighty ramp-up in exports, benign cost, and earnings derisk (opening 2 additional evacuation routes) to drive a stellar performance. On basis of valuation, Seplat trades on 2018F P/E of 8.6x which is at 30% discount to its EMEA peers.”

Earlier this month, Seplat’s management reported it has received notification from the operator of TPS (SPDC) on the lifting of the force majeure on the pipeline at the end of May 2017.

The company further stated that it has successfully reinstated production levels at the OMLs 4, 38 and 41 to net working interest production levels of 56kboep/d. Also, Seplat informed that upgrade at the Warri refinery will be completed by Q2 17, the report said.

“Our cautious view with regards to project completion and ramp up in export guides our 180 days downtime forecast for 2017E (previously 280 days).

“Consequently, we revise working interest production for 2017E to 39.27bopd (+52% YoY) to drive revenue 48% higher YoY to $376.6million – Oil revenue (+50% YoY to $222.7million) and Gas revenue (+46% YoY to $153.8million).

“We recall from our FY 16 earnings update ‘Striking FY 16 loss: is Seplat off the hook?’ where we noted that Seplat will need its working interest production to cross 32kbopd before the company can post a profit.

“Thus, given the earlier than expected re-opening of TFP to drive higher production, our estimate implies PAT of $27.3million for FY 17E (2016: loss after tax of $166million),” the report said.

Management has indicated it was working with the FG to complete the Escravos pipeline where it expects to export circa. 160kbpd.

Though Seplat expects this to be operational in H2 17, the report said it is less sanguine about the target completion time of the Escravos pipeline owing to government’s delayed completion on similar projects, and therefore see 2018 as a more realistic date for the project.

The combination of an upgrade at the Warri refinery as well as fully operational Trans-Forcados and Escravos pipelines drive its forecast of a 90-day downtime in 2018 with working interest production forecast of 44.8bopd (+14% YoY) and over four-fold increase in PAT to $84.1million, the research report stated.

“Farther out (2019-2022F), Seplat’s intention to make the Escravos pipeline its primary route guides to lower reconciliation cost.

“Consequently, we forecast an average working interest production of 50kbopd and mean PAT of $95million over our forecast period. Another catalyst to earnings is Seplat’s operated $1.3bilion ANOH gas and condensate project which a final investment decision (FID) for the upstream and midstream elements is expected in H2 2017 and should guide a revision to forecast. Irrespective, downside risk to earnings persist.

“Ongoing national security concerns with recurrent threat by new militant groups in the Niger delta region pose risk to production and export volumes from pipeline attacks.

“To add, oil prices below our $40/bbl. Estimate would result in a downward revision to our estimate.

“The stock currently trades at an FY 17E and FY 18F P/E of 22x and 8.6x compared to 15.4x and 12x for its EMEA peers. We forecast a sturdy 5-year earnings CAGR of 55%. Cumulative impact of the adjustments results in an attractive valuation with NAV per share of its oil and gas assets at $2.19 and $0.43 respectively having applied 35% discount to asset values to reflect our risk to future earnings.

“The foregoing, combined with our exchange rate forecast of N360/$ for 2017, drives our FVE higher to N518.74 (previously N346).

“Our FVE is at a 13% premium to the last closing price of N460. We have an OVERWEIGHT rating on the stock,” ARM Research stated in the report.

ARM Securities Limited

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Dipo Olowookere is a journalist based in Nigeria that has passion for reporting business news stories. At his leisure time, he watches football and supports 3SC of Ibadan. Mr Olowookere can be reached via [email protected]

Economy

PEBEC Blocks Introduction of New Policies by MDAs

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PEBEC

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Presidential Enabling Business Environment Council (PEBEC) has directed Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs) to suspend the introduction of new policies and regulatory changes to prevent disruptions to businesses.

The directive was issued in a statement by PEBEC director-general, Mrs Zahrah Mustapha-Audu, on Monday in Abuja, noting that the move is part of the Federal Government’s broader effort to improve regulatory quality, ensure policy consistency, and strengthen Nigeria’s ease of doing business environment.

The council emphasised that the suspension will remain in place until all MDAs fully comply with the Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA) Framework, which governs evidence-based policymaking across government institutions.

The council said the directive is aimed at ensuring that all government policies are backed by verifiable data and do not negatively impact businesses or investors.

“It is imperative to emphasise that no new reform or policy will be permitted to proceed without being grounded in clear, verifiable evidence,” said Mrs Mustapha-Audu.

“The framework provides the structured mechanism through which such evidence-based decisions can be rigorously developed, assessed, and validated.

“This directive is necessary to prevent policy shocks that may adversely affect businesses, investors, and citizens, as well as to eliminate policy inconsistencies and frequent reversals.”

She added that the government remains committed to working collaboratively with regulators and does not intend to embarrass any institution.

The Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA) Framework, introduced in January 2025, is designed to improve transparency and ensure that policies undergo proper evaluation before implementation.

All MDAs are required to align new policies and amendments with the RIA framework before approval and rollout.

The framework has been circulated by the Office of the Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF) and is available on the PEBEC website.
MDAs are encouraged to seek technical support from the PEBEC Secretariat to ensure proper implementation.

Exceptions to the directive will only be granted in cases of urgent national interest, subject to appropriate approvals.

PEBEC noted that the framework will help institutionalise evidence-based policymaking, enhance transparency, and improve stakeholder confidence in government decisions.

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Economy

DMO Sells 3-Year FGN Savings Bond at 14.082% for April Batch

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FGN Savings Bond

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

Subscription for the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) savings bonds for April 2026 has opened, a circular from the Debt Management Office (DMO) on Tuesday, April 7, 2026, confirmed.

The debt office is selling the retail debt instrument for this month in two tenors of two years and three years.

Offer for the savings bonds opened today and will close on Friday, April 10, 2026, a part of the disclosure stated.

The 2-year FGN savings bond due April 15, 2028, is being sold at a coupon rate of 13.082 per cent per annum, while the 3-year FGN savings bond due April 15, 2029, is being sold at a coupon rate of 14.082 per cent per annum.

The interests are paid every quarter, and the bullet repayment to subscribers on the maturity date.

The bonds are sold at N1,000 per unit, subject to a minimum subscription of N5,000 and in multiples of N1,000 thereafter, subject to a maximum subscription of N50 million.

Interested investors are required to reach out to the stockbroking firms appointed as distribution agents by the DMO via the agency’s website.

An FGN savings bond qualifies as securities in which trustees can invest under the Trustee Investment Act. It also qualifies as government securities within the meaning of the Company Income Tax Act (CITA) and the Personal Income Tax Act (PITA) for tax exemption for pension funds, amongst other investors, meaning it is tax-free.

It can be used as a liquid asset for liquidity ratio calculation for banks, and is listed on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited to allow for easy exit (liquidation) before maturity by selling at the secondary market.

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Economy

Oil Prices Rise as US-Iran Tensions Escalate Despite Talks

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Oil Prices fall

By Adedapo Adesanya

Oil prices climbed on Monday’s short trade as the United States and Iran threatened more attacks, ​as the two countries are engaging in indirect talks that could lead to the de-escalation of hostilities.

Brent crude futures settled at $109.77 ‌a barrel after chalking up 74 cents or 0.68 per cent, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures traded at $112.40 after growing by 87 cents or 0.78 per cent.

The US and Iran received a framework from ​Pakistan to end hostilities, but this was rejected by Iran, especially the idea of immediately reopening the strait after President Donald Trump threatened to ⁠rain “hell” on the nation if it did not make a deal by the end of Tuesday.

Iran said ​it had formulated its positions and demands in response to recent ceasefire proposals conveyed via intermediaries.

The US is eyeing an agreement to open the crucial Strait of Hormuz, the shipping artery used by one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas supply, but the strait, which carries oil and petroleum products from Iraq, Saudi ​Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, remains largely closed due to Iranian attacks on shipping after the U.S.-Israel attacks began on February 28.

Some vessels, however, including ​an Omani-operated tanker, a French-owned container ship and a Japanese-owned gas carrier, have passed through the strait since Thursday.

Meanwhile, major oil consumers, ​particularly in Asia, are conserving barrels or cutting consumption in response to the closure of the strait.

The Middle East supply disruptions have led refiners to seek alternative sources for crude, particularly for physical cargoes in the US and Britain’s North Sea.

Indian refiners have also postponed maintenance shutdowns of their units to meet local fuel demand.

On Sunday, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) agreed to a modest rise ​of 206,000 barrels per day for May. However, this will only appear on paper as the disruption is limiting the ability of the top producers to add the needed output.

OPEC’s combined oil output losses for March were estimated at 7.2 million barrels daily. The biggest production cuts were made by Kuwait, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia, for a total OPEC output of 21.57 million barrels daily for March. This is the lowest OPEC production rate since June 2020.

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