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Economy

S&P Cuts Nigeria’s 2020 GDP Growth Forecast to 1.5%

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GDP growth forecast

By Dipo Olowookere

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast for Nigeria in 2020 has been revised downward to 1.5 percent from 2.2 percent by Standard and Poors (S&P).

In a press statement issued on Thursday, the rating agency also announced lowering its long-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Nigeria to ‘B-’ from ‘B’.

In addition, the renowned company said it has affirmed its ‘B’ short-term sovereign credit ratings on Nigeria, while downgrading its long-term Nigeria national scale rating to ‘ngBBB’ from ‘ngA-’ and affirming the ‘ngA-2’ short-term Nigeria national scale rating.

S&P explained that the economic growth projection was reduced to 1.5 percent “since the effects of lower oil revenue will filter through to the non-oil real sector” of the country.

“We forecast real GDP will expand by a modest 2 percent over 2020-2023.

“In per capita terms, this translates into economic contraction over our forecast horizon through 2023. Nigeria’s per capita GDP remains below that of several peers, with income levels below $2,000 in 2020,” it said in the statement.

Early this month, the Organisation for the Oil Producing Exporting Countries (OPEC) failed to agree to a proposed reduction of 1.5 million barrels per day (mmbbl/d) to address an expected significant drop in global demand partly due to the spread of the coronavirus.

Shortly after the meetings, Saudi Arabia announced that it was immediately slashing its official selling price and would increase its production to over 12 mmbbl/d in April after the current production cut expires next Tuesday.

These actions possibly signal that, despite a collapse in global demand and shrinking physical markets, Russia and Saudi Arabia may engage in a price war to try and maintain market share and market relevance.

Oil markets are now heading into a period of severe supply-demand imbalance in second-quarter 2020.

Given that Nigeria’s reliance on oil revenue is still high, over 85 percent of goods exports and about half of fiscal revenues, lower oil prices in 2020 will significantly hurt its external and fiscal positions, S&P said.

“We estimate the economy will grow about 1.5 percent in 2020 (our previous estimate was 2.2 percent) and average 2.0 percent in 2020-2023.

“Our forecast for a sharp decline in oil prices, and consequent lower export revenues, are likely to result in the current account deficit increasing to 3.3 percent of GDP this year before moderating over the medium term and averaging -1.1 percent in 2020-2023,” the agency said.

S&P had said in February 2020 that the Brent oil prices were expected to average $60 per barrel (/bbl) in 2020 and to gradually decline to $55/bbl from 2021.

However, based on recent development, it has now projected price of the Brent oil at $30/bbl in 2020, $50/bbl in 2021, and $55/bbl from 2022.

In the 2020 budget, Nigeria pegged the crude oil benchmark at $57/bbl, but the COVID-19 pandemic forced a downward review recently to $30/bbl, with the size of the budget cut by N1.5 trillion from just over N10 trillion.

In its statement yesterday, S&P said on the fiscal side, lower oil-related revenue will keep general government in Nigeria (federal and state government combined) fiscal deficits elevated at about 5 percent of GDP this year, delaying planned gradual consolidation, before averaging 4.2 percent in 2020-2023.

The federal government has and will continue to make efforts to increase non-oil revenue, including the increase in value-added tax to 7.5 percent from 5.0 percent, reducing fuel subsidies, and raising electricity tariffs among other administrative measures, it said.

“In addition, adjustments to the exchange rate should also yield the federal government higher Naira revenues. Nevertheless, these measures are not expected to be enough to compensate for the forecast reduction in oil revenue. In addition, COVID-19-related spending is likely to affect expenditure,” the statement said.

Dipo Olowookere is a journalist based in Nigeria that has passion for reporting business news stories. At his leisure time, he watches football and supports 3SC of Ibadan. Mr Olowookere can be reached via [email protected]

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Economy

NGX RegCo Revokes Trading Licence of Monument Securities

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NGX RegCo

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The trading licence of Monument Securities and Finance Limited has been revoked by the regulatory arm of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Group Plc.

Known as NGX Regulations Limited (NGX Regco), the regulator said it took back the operating licence of the organisation after it shut down its operations.

The revocation of the licence was approved by Regulation and New Business Committee (RNBC) at its meeting held on September 24, 2025, a notice from the signed by the Head of Market Regulations at the agency, Chinedu Akamaka, said.

“This is to formally notify all trading license holders that the board of NGX Regulation Limited (NGX RegCo) has approved the decision of the Regulation and New Business Committee (RNBC)” in respect of Monument Securities and Finance Limited, a part of the disclosure stated.

Monument Securities and Finance Limited was earlier licensed to assist clients with the trading of stocks in the Nigerian capital market.

However, with the latest development, the firm is no longer authorised to perform this function.

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Economy

NEITI Advocates Fiscal Discipline, Transparency as FG, States, LGs Get N6trn in Three Months

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NEITI

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI) has called for fiscal discipline and transparency as data showed that federal government, states, and local governments shared a whopping N6 trillion Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) disbursements in the third quarter of last year.

In its analysis of the FAAC Q3 2025 allocation, the body revealed that the federal government received N2.19 trillion, states received N1.97 trillion, and local governments received N1.45 trillion.

According to a statement by the Director of Communication and Stakeholders Management at NEITI, Mrs Obiageli Onuorah, the allocation indicated a historic rise in federation account receipts and distributions, explaining that year-on-year quarterly FAAC allocations in 2025 grew by 55.6 per cent compared with Q3 of 2024 while it more than doubling allocations over two years.

The report contained in the agency’s Quarterly Review noted that the N6 trillion included 13 per cent payments to derivative states. It also showed that statutory revenues accounted for 62 per cent of shared receipts, while Value Added Tax (VAT) was 34 per cent, and Electronic Money Transfer Levy (EMTL) and augmentation from non-oil excess revenue each accounted for 2 per cent, respectively.

The distribution to the 36 states comprised revenues from statutory sources, VAT, EMTL, and ecological funds. States also received additional N100 billion as augmentation from the non-oil excess revenue account.

The Executive Secretary of NEITI, Mr Sarkin Adar, called on the Office of the Accountant General of the Federation, the Revenue Mobilisation Allocation and Fiscal Commission (RMAFC) FAAC, the National Economic Council (NEC), the National Assembly, and state governments to act on the recommendations to strengthen transparency, accountability, and long-term fiscal sustainability.

“Though the Quarter 3 2025 FAAC results are encouraging, NEITI reiterates that the data presents an opportunity to the government to institutionalise prudent fiscal practices that will protect the gains that have been recorded so far in growing revenue and reduce vulnerability to commodity shocks.

“The Q3 2025 FAAC results are encouraging, but windfalls must be managed with discipline. Greater transparency, realistic budgeting, and stronger stabilisation mechanisms will ensure these resources deliver durable benefits for all Nigerians,” Mr Adar said.

NEITI urged the government at all levels to ensure the growth of Nigeria’s sovereign wealth and stabilisation capacity, by committing to regular transfers to the Nigeria Sovereign Wealth Fund and other related stabilisation mechanisms in line with the fiscal responsibility frameworks.

It further advised governments at all levels to adopt realistic budget benchmarks by setting more conservative and achievable crude oil production and price assumptions in the budget to reduce implementation gaps, deficit, and debt metrics.

This, it said, is in addition to accelerating revenue diversification by prioritising reforms that would attract investments into the mining sector, expedite legislation to modernise the Mineral and Mining Act, support reforms in the downstream petroleum sector, as well as the full implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) to expand domestic refining and value addition.

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Economy

World Bank Upwardly Reviews Nigeria’s 2026 Growth Forecast to 4.4%

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Nigeria's economic growth

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

Nigeria has been projected to record an economic growth rate of 4.4 per cent in 2026 by the World Bank Group, higher than the 3.7 per cent earlier predicted in June 2025.

In its 2026 Global Economic Prospects report released on Tuesday, the global lender also said the growth for next year for Nigeria is 4.4 per cent rather than the 3.8 per cent earlier projected.

As for the sub-Saharan African region, the economy is forecast to move up to 4.3 per cent this year and 4.5 per cent next year.

It stressed that growth in developing economies should slow to 4 per cent from 4.2 per cent in 2025 before rising to 4.1 per cent in 2027 as trade tensions ease, commodity prices stabilise, financial conditions improve, and investment flows strengthen.

In the report, it also noted that growth is expected to jump in low-income countries by 5.6 per cent due to stronger domestic demand, recovering exports, and moderating inflation.

As for the world economy, the bank said it is now 2.6 per cent and not 2.4 per cent due to growing resilience despite persistent trade tensions and policy uncertainty.

“The resilience reflects better-than-expected growth — especially in the United States, which accounts for about two-thirds of the upward revision to the forecast in 2026,” a part of the report stated.

“But economic dynamism and resilience cannot diverge for long without fracturing public finance and credit markets,” it noted.

World Bank also said, “Over the coming years, the world economy is set to grow slower than it did in the troubled 1990s — while carrying record levels of public and private debt.

“To avert stagnation and joblessness, governments in emerging and advanced economies must aggressively liberalise private investment and trade, rein in public consumption, and invest in new technologies and education.”

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