Connect with us

Economy

S&P Cuts Nigeria’s 2020 GDP Growth Forecast to 1.5%

Published

on

GDP growth forecast

By Dipo Olowookere

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast for Nigeria in 2020 has been revised downward to 1.5 percent from 2.2 percent by Standard and Poors (S&P).

In a press statement issued on Thursday, the rating agency also announced lowering its long-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Nigeria to ‘B-’ from ‘B’.

In addition, the renowned company said it has affirmed its ‘B’ short-term sovereign credit ratings on Nigeria, while downgrading its long-term Nigeria national scale rating to ‘ngBBB’ from ‘ngA-’ and affirming the ‘ngA-2’ short-term Nigeria national scale rating.

S&P explained that the economic growth projection was reduced to 1.5 percent “since the effects of lower oil revenue will filter through to the non-oil real sector” of the country.

“We forecast real GDP will expand by a modest 2 percent over 2020-2023.

“In per capita terms, this translates into economic contraction over our forecast horizon through 2023. Nigeria’s per capita GDP remains below that of several peers, with income levels below $2,000 in 2020,” it said in the statement.

Early this month, the Organisation for the Oil Producing Exporting Countries (OPEC) failed to agree to a proposed reduction of 1.5 million barrels per day (mmbbl/d) to address an expected significant drop in global demand partly due to the spread of the coronavirus.

Shortly after the meetings, Saudi Arabia announced that it was immediately slashing its official selling price and would increase its production to over 12 mmbbl/d in April after the current production cut expires next Tuesday.

These actions possibly signal that, despite a collapse in global demand and shrinking physical markets, Russia and Saudi Arabia may engage in a price war to try and maintain market share and market relevance.

Oil markets are now heading into a period of severe supply-demand imbalance in second-quarter 2020.

Given that Nigeria’s reliance on oil revenue is still high, over 85 percent of goods exports and about half of fiscal revenues, lower oil prices in 2020 will significantly hurt its external and fiscal positions, S&P said.

“We estimate the economy will grow about 1.5 percent in 2020 (our previous estimate was 2.2 percent) and average 2.0 percent in 2020-2023.

“Our forecast for a sharp decline in oil prices, and consequent lower export revenues, are likely to result in the current account deficit increasing to 3.3 percent of GDP this year before moderating over the medium term and averaging -1.1 percent in 2020-2023,” the agency said.

S&P had said in February 2020 that the Brent oil prices were expected to average $60 per barrel (/bbl) in 2020 and to gradually decline to $55/bbl from 2021.

However, based on recent development, it has now projected price of the Brent oil at $30/bbl in 2020, $50/bbl in 2021, and $55/bbl from 2022.

In the 2020 budget, Nigeria pegged the crude oil benchmark at $57/bbl, but the COVID-19 pandemic forced a downward review recently to $30/bbl, with the size of the budget cut by N1.5 trillion from just over N10 trillion.

In its statement yesterday, S&P said on the fiscal side, lower oil-related revenue will keep general government in Nigeria (federal and state government combined) fiscal deficits elevated at about 5 percent of GDP this year, delaying planned gradual consolidation, before averaging 4.2 percent in 2020-2023.

The federal government has and will continue to make efforts to increase non-oil revenue, including the increase in value-added tax to 7.5 percent from 5.0 percent, reducing fuel subsidies, and raising electricity tariffs among other administrative measures, it said.

“In addition, adjustments to the exchange rate should also yield the federal government higher Naira revenues. Nevertheless, these measures are not expected to be enough to compensate for the forecast reduction in oil revenue. In addition, COVID-19-related spending is likely to affect expenditure,” the statement said.

Dipo Olowookere is a journalist based in Nigeria that has passion for reporting business news stories. At his leisure time, he watches football and supports 3SC of Ibadan. Mr Olowookere can be reached via dipo.olowookere@businesspost.ng

Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Economy

Trump’s Tariff: Alake Woos Investors to Nigeria’s Solid Minerals Sector

Published

on

solid minerals production

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Minister of Solid Minerals Development, Mr Dele Alake, has called on foreign investors to consider Nigeria amid prevailing barrage of tariffs imposed by the United States, which he says may be a blessing in disguise for African countries.

Speaking during the Fireside Chat session on Foreign Direct Investment in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, the Minister called on African countries to adopt an introspective approach by looking inward and adjusting their domestic policies to focus more on intra-African trade, with less dependence on external forces.

In a statement by his Special Assistant on Media, Mr Segun Tomori, on Sunday in Abuja, it was stated that the Minister’s remarks were part of his contribution to the discourse on the impact of the tariffs on Africa’s economic climate.

“The barrage of tariffs imposed carries wide-ranging implications for the global economy, U.S. trade relationships, and developing nations, including those in Africa,” he said.

He stressed the need need for African countries to organise economic imperatives to ensure a balance of trade and strengthen intra African trade among countries.

Mr Alake highlighted the persistent challenge faced by African countries, where rare mineral resources were exported without any value addition, noting that the old ‘pit-to-port’ model, where resources are extracted and sent out of the continent can no longer be allowed to continue.

“Interested investors, who wish to come into Africa are welcome to set up their factories in the continent, add value to our mineral resources and create jobs here, rather than just shipping our wealth out of our shores”, he stated.

The minister said that his stance on protecting Africa’s mineral wealth has been adopted by many African countries, particularly mineral-producing nations, where he served as the pioneering chairman of the African Minerals Strategic Group (AMSG).

He reaffirmed that Nigeria’s policy on mineral sector development remained strictly focused on value addition and boosting the local economy through job creation.

Continue Reading

Economy

Arnergy Raises $18m to Boost Solar Energy Access in Nigeria

Published

on

Arnergy

By Adedapo Adesanya

Arnergy, a cleantech startup, has raised a $15 million Series B extension, on top of a $3 million B1 round last year, bringing its total for the round to $18 million to boost solar energy access in Nigeria.

According to TechCrunch, the new funding round was led by Nigerian private equity firm CardinalStone Capital Advisers (CCA) and saw participation from Breakthrough Energy Ventures as well as British International Investment, Norfund, EDFI MC, and All On.

Launched in 2013, Arnergy was established to provide solar systems to homes and businesses across sectors like hospitality, education, finance, agriculture, and healthcare.

The firm raised a $9 million Series A in 2019 backed by Bill Gates’s Breakthrough Energy Ventures.

The Lagos-based cleantech is in talks to raise additional local debt from banks and development financial institutions (DFIs) to support some of its projects including energy-as-a-service (EaaS) solutions for multinationals.

The cleantech is planning to install more than 12,000 systems by 2029 to help boost access to solar energy, which Nigerians have began to adopt increasingly following policy shifts, particularly the removal of fuel subsidies, that led to rise in energy costs.

Arnergy has so far deployed over 1,800 systems across 35 Nigerian states, totaling 9MWp of solar and 23MWh of battery storage.

Over the next four years, it will be targeting a 567 per cent increase to the set 12,000 systems goal.

According to the founder, Mr Femi Adeyemo, there has been increased adaptation of solar energy and this presents the perfect opportunity.

Its lease-to-own product, Z Lite, has gained more traction as customers pay fixed monthly fees over 5 to 10 years before owning the system while outright purchases comprised 60 per cent to 70 per cent of revenue in 2023, accounting for just 25 per cent of sales last year, as per TechCrunch.

“Imagine paying N200,000 (~$125) every month for power. With our product, that drops to N96,000 (~$60). Over five years, it’s a no-brainer what you’ll save,” Mr Adeyemo told the tech publication.

Recall that the federal government has also announced plans to ban importation of solar panels as part of efforts to boost local capacity. This has been projected to see a substantial increase in prices.

Speaking on this, Mr Adeyemo said, “We’re advocates for local manufacturing. But let’s build capacity before shutting the door on imports. Otherwise, we risk doing more harm than good, both to the industry and to the millions of Nigerians who now rely on solar as their primary energy source.”

Continue Reading

Economy

Value of NASD OTC Exchange Rises 0.40% to N1.919trn in Week 15 of 2025

Published

on

NASD below 700 basis points

By Adedapo Adesanya

The total value of stocks at the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange increased by 0.40 per cent or N9.21 billion to N1.919 trillion in the 15th trading week of 2025 from the N1.911 trillion it ended in Week 14.

The growth was mainly influenced by the inclusion of new shares of Infrastructure Credit Guarantee Company Plc (InfraCredit) to the trading platform in the week.

InfraCredit joined the alternative stock market on March 6 and last week, it brought addition 11.166 million equities, which increased its total securities at the NASD OTC exchange to 26.421 million units.

However, the NASD Unlisted Securities Index (NSI) went down by 0.20 per cent or 31.89 points to 3,277.57 points from the 3,309.46 points it ended a week earlier.

In the week, the total value of trades ballooned by 29,234.5 per cent to N4.79 billion from the N16.3 million recorded in the previous week, and the total volume of transactions increased by 1,485.1 per cent to 171.4 million units from 10.8 million units.

The bourse recorded seven price losers led by Nipco Plc, which depreciated by 20.2 per cent to close at N199.00 per share versus N220.00 per share, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc lost 2.5 per cent to finish at N22.70 per unit versus N25.21 per unit, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc shed 1.3 per cent to sell for N35.55 per share against the former value of N36.80 per share, and Afriland Properties Plc went down by 0.6 per cent to N17.80 per unit from N18.42 per unit.

Further, Geo-Fluids Plc slipped by 0.5 per cent to N2.00 per share from N2.48 per share, Acorn Petroleum Plc slid by 0.2 per cent to N1.17 per unit from N1.30 per unit, and InfraCredit Plc declined by 0.09 per cent to N2.34 per share from N2.43 per share.

On the flip side, Mixta Real Estate Plc improved by 0.4 per cent to N4.55 per unit from N4.14 per unit, Lagos Building Investment Company (LBIC) Plc expanded by 0.2 per cent to N2.63 per share from N2.80 per share, First Trust Microfinance Bank Plc appreciated by 0.04 to 62 Kobo per unit from 58 Kobo per unit, and Paintcom Investment Plc gained 0.02 per cent to end at N10.74 per share compared with the preceding week’s N10.72 per share.

The most active stock in the week by value was Okitipupa Plc with N4.6 billion, Paintcom Investment Plc recorded N190.9 million, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc traded N28.0 million, Nipco Plc transacted N3.5 million, and 11 Plc recorded N1.7 million.

Okitipupa Plc was also the most traded stock by volume with 152.1 million units, Paintcom Investment Plc transacted 17.8 million units, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc recorded 0.751 million, Geo-Fluids Plc traded 0.356 million units, and Food Concepts Plc exchanged 0.180 million units.

Continue Reading

Trending