By FBNQuest Research
The net FX flows through the CBN were negative by $760 million in May but positive over the 12-month period to the tune of $5.12 billion.
Inflows through the CBN, which consist of monies from the oil economy and the non-oil public sector, declined from $2.87 billion to $2.26 billion in May.
Outflows, in contrast, rose from $2.16 billion to $3.02 billion in the same month, which the commentary attributed to inter-bank utilization, external debt service, drawings under letters of credit and an unspecified “FX special payment”.
The surge in inflows to $5.06 billion in February coincides with the sale of Eurobonds to international investors.
The pick-up in outflows through the CBN in the chart since February coincides with the CBN’s multiple currency practices. We recall that May was the full month of operation for the investors’ and exporters’ window (NAFEX).
We are not comparing apples with apples but we note that the net inflow through the CBN of $5.12 billion over the 12 months is consistent with the increase in gross official reserves of $3.94 billion over the same period.
The data also capture flows through the economy as a whole (autonomous and CBN transactions). They show autonomous inflows of $3.52 billion in May.
Remittances alone are running at close to $2 billion per month according to the balance of payments.
Autonomous outflows amounted to just $160 million in the month. So the net inflow for May was $3.36 billion for autonomous funds and $2.60 billion for the economy (adjusted for the CBN).
