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Economy

Stock Analysts Put Sell Rating on Nestle

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By Modupe Gbadeyanka

Analysts at Cordros Research have put a sell rating on Nestle Nigeria Plc stock, which N1,381 per share on Friday.

According to a report released by Cordros Research, the q/q sales revenue contraction reported in the seasonally-supportive Q4 is a volume pressure worthy of note.

Besides, gross margin (-219 bps y/y and -107 bps q/q in Q4-17) appears less likely to improve materially in the absence of further price increases.

That said, the firm noted the potential stimulus to 2018E earnings from significantly lower finance charges and lower opex-to-sales ratio.

On net, we revise 2018E net profit estimate 5% higher to NGN49.3 billion, equating to NGN62 dividend per share, and 4% yield on today’s price.

Our latest 2018 sales revenue estimate of NGN268.6 billion (10% growth vs. 2017FY) is lower by 4% compared to the previous estimate.

We based our estimate entirely on volume growth (driven by the Food segment), as we maintain our view that the odds are high against price increase in 2018.

While Nestlé’s market leading status accords the group some influence over pricing, we believe the implications to market share is high in today’s resurgent competitive environment, amidst little recovering consumption expenditures. We retain our gross margin estimate of 42% (vs. 41% in 2017FY) for 2018E.

While noting the weakness experienced in Q4-17 as dampening growth outlook, we have based our benign growth estimate on moderating commodities price inflation and stable naira exchange rate outlook.

Likewise, we estimate EBIT margin to expand modestly to 23% (vs. 22.8% in 2017FY) on slightly conservative opex growth expectation (13% in 2018F vs. 27% previously).

With NGN42.7 billion loans repaid (96% were intercompany loans), gross debt at the end of 2017F was NGN24.2 billion. New long term intercompany loan (NGN5.5 billion) was drawn also in 2017FY. Gross borrowing is currently split into 74% USD intercompany loans (vs. 92% in 2016FY) and 26% secured NGN borrowings (vs. 8% in 2016FY).

The split was 70:30 during the pre naira devaluation and acute FX challenge period of 2011-2014FY. We estimate finance charge to reduce by more than 14x in 2018E on less geared balance sheet and stable naira outlook.

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

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Economy

Akara, Kulikuli, Roasted Corn Business Not Capital Intensive—Remi Tinubu

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remi tinubu

​By Modupe Gbadeyanka

Nigeria’s First Lady, Mrs Oluremi Tinubu, has given Nigerians business advice that may not involve a lot of money to start.

Speaking with newsmen recently, the wife of President Bola Tinubu said businesses like akara (fried bean cake), kulikuli (a crunchy snack from roasted peanuts or groundnuts) and roasted corn can be set up without breaking the bank.

She disclosed that to support her husband’s Renewed Hope agenda, she has provided funding packages to traders and others to the tune of N3.5 billion.

“To start akara business doesn’t take a lot of money. To start roasting corn and kuli-kuli doesn’t take much. We didn’t give them a loan; we gave it to them as a grant,” she stated.

She further said, “We’ve encouraged Nigerians as best as we could, what is within our hands, I have given, and I keep giving. Those are the things we’ve done.”

“I remember giving for TB (tuberculosis) when I heard of many TB cases; I gave N2 billion, to breast cancer, I gave N1 billion, and to [tackle] malnutrition, I gave N500 million.

“These are the things we’ve been doing to assist the government. So, we’ve had impact in agriculture, social investment, education (as scholarship and ICT training) and others. We are still open to doing more,” she disclosed.

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Economy

NASD Exchange Extends Winning Streak by 1.70%

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NASD OTC stock exchange

By Adedapo Adesanya

The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange rallied by 1.70 per cent on Thursday, June 25, after three price gainers overpowered the two price losers recorded at the close of business.

Consequently, the market capitalisation of the trading platform increased by N43.79 billion to N2.618 trillion from N2.574 trillion, and the NASD Security Index (NSI) improved by 72.96 points to close at 4,362.32 points, in contrast to Wednesday’s 4,289.36 points.

Yesterday, the price advancers were led by Nipco Plc, which chalked up N31.79 to close at N349.76 per unit versus the preceding day’s N317.97 per unit. Okitipupa Plc gained N18.00 to end at N298.00 per share versus the previous session’s N280.00 per share, and Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc went up by N7.11 to N86.79 per unit from N79.68 per unit.

On the flip side, Nitrox Industrial Gases Plc crumbled by 32 Kobo to close at N21.09 per share compared with the N21.41 per share it closed at midweek, and Food Concepts Plc depreciated by 25 Kobo to N2.51 per unit from N2.76 per unit.

During the session, the value of securities traded by investors went down by 86.7 per cent to N10.9 million from the preceding session’s N82.9 million, and the volume of securities dropped 84.9 per cent to 10.9 million units from the previous 82.9 million, while the number of deals grew by 84.2 per cent to 35 deals from 19 deals.

At the close of trades, Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc remained the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units sold for N8.4 billion, trailed by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc with 2.3 billion units valued at N6.5 billion, and CSCS Plc with 68.4 million units exchanged for N4.7 billion.

GNI Plc was also the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, followed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units traded for N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units transacted for N415.7 million.

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Economy

Bears Plunge NGX All-Share Index by 0.64% to 235,074.54 Points

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NGX All-Share Index

By Dipo Olowookere

The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited further suffered a 0.64 per cent decline on Thursday as the bears tightened their grip on the bourse.

For the second straight session, all the key sectors of Customs Street pointed south, with the energy counter down by 5.22 per cent. The insurance index slumped by 2.59 per cent, the banking space depreciated by 0.28 per cent, and the consumer goods segment moderated by 0.06 per cent, while the industrial goods sector was flat, though with a marginal fall.

As a result, the All-Share Index (ASI) contracted by 1,493.71 points to 233,580.83 points from 235,074.54 points, and the market capitalisation retreated by N959 billion to N149.888 trillion from N150.847 trillion.

Investor sentiment remained weak after a negative market breadth index, as there were 21 price gainers and 34 price losers.

Aradel and Deap Capital went down by 10.00 per cent each to N1,575.00 and N4.05, respectively. Trans-Nationwide Express fell by 9.90 per cent to N3.64, Regency Alliance slipped by 9.57 per cent to N85 Kobo, and C&I Leasing dipped by 9.48 per cent to N28.12.

Conversely, Red Star Express grew by 9.60 per cent to N24.55, Legend Internet expanded by 9.09 per cent to N6.00, Neimeth appreciated by 7.10 per cent to N8.30, Abbey Mortgage Bank rose by 5.45 per cent to N8.70, and Ellah Lakes improved by 4.65 per cent to N9.00.

Yesterday, market participants traded 393.7 million equities valued at N19.2 billion in 45,813 deals compared with the 488.1 million equities worth N20.9 billion transacted in 46,239 deals recorded a day earlier, implying a shortfall in the trading volume, value, and number of deals by 19.34 per cent, 8.13 per cent, and 0.92 per cent, respectively.

The most active stock for the session was Access Holdings with a turnover of 39.1 million units worth N896.2 million, Chams traded 24.5 million units valued at N96.5 million, Fidelity Bank sold 24.1 million units for N436.9 million, Sterling Holdings exchanged 23.8 million units valued at N182.2 million, and Zenith Bank transacted 18.9 million units worth N2.1 billion.

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