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Strong Job Growth Dampens Hopes for Interest Rate Cut

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wall street

By Investors Hub

The major U.S. index futures are currently pointing to a lower opening on Friday as trading is set to resume following the Independence Day holiday on Thursday.

Stock futures came under pressure following the release of a Labor Department showing a substantial reacceleration in the pace of U.S. job growth in the month of June.

The report said employment surged up by 224,000 jobs in June after edging up by a downwardly revised 72,000 jobs in May. Economists had expected employment to increase by about 160,000 jobs.

While the data points to a rebound in the labor market following the weakness seen in May, the report has dampened investor hopes for a near-term interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

Stocks showed a strong move to the upside over the course of a holiday-shortened trading session on Wednesday. With the upward move, the major averages added to the modest gains posted on Tuesday to reach new record closing highs.

The major averages ended the session at their best levels of the day. The Dow jumped 179.32 points or 0.7 percent to 8,170.23, the Nasdaq advanced 61.14 points or 0.8 percent to 8,170.23 and the S&P 500 climbed 22.81 points or 0.8 percent to 2,995.82.

The strength on Wall Street came as a batch of largely disappointing U.S. economic data reinforced expectations for a near-term interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

Initial buying interest was generated in reaction to a report from payroll processor ADP showing private sector job growth reaccelerated in the month of June but still came in below economist estimates.

ADP said private sector employment climbed by 102,000 jobs in June after rising by an upwardly revised 41,000 jobs in May.

Economists had expected employment to increase by about 140,000 jobs compared to the addition of 27,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month.

“Even with the US-China trade talks back on track (for now at least) the evidence of a slowdown in employment growth should still be enough to persuade the Fed to cut rates in either July or September,” said Paul Ashworth, Chief U.S. Economist at Capital Economics.

CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows an interest rate cut of at least 25 basis points at the Fed’s July meeting is priced into the markets, although Ashworth said expectations of a 50 basis point cut “seem misplaced.”

Stocks saw further upside after a report from the Institute for Supply showing a notable slowdown in the pace of service sector growth added to the optimism about a rate cut.

The ISM said its non-manufacturing index dropped to 55.1 in June from 56.9 in May, hitting its lowest level since a matching reading in July of 2017.

While a reading above 50 still indicates growth in service sector activity, economists had expected the index to show a more modest decrease to 55.9.

A separate report released by the Commerce Department showed the U.S. trade deficit widened by more than anticipated in the month of May, as the value of imports jumped by much more than the value of exports.

The Commerce Department said the trade deficit widened to $55.5 billion in May from a revised $51.2 billion in April. Economists had expected the trade deficit to widen to $54.0 billion.

The wider trade deficit came as the value of imports surged up by 3.3 percent to $266.2 billion compared to a 2.0 percent jump in the value of exports to $210.6 billion.

Andrew Hunter, Senior U.S. Economist at Capital Economics, said the wider than expected deficit suggests net trade was a “slightly bigger drag on second-quarter GDP growth than we had previously anticipated.”

“Despite the recent ceasefire agreed between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, we still think it is slightly more likely than not that the trade dispute with China will ultimately escalate further,” Hunter said.

He added, “The upshot is that net trade is likely to remain a modest drag on growth over the second half of this year, which we expect to compound a sharp slowdown in domestic demand growth.”

Interest rate-sensitive commercial real estate stocks turned in some of the market’s best performances on the day, driving the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index up by 1.3 percent.

Significant strength was also visible among housing stocks, which would also benefit from lower interest rates. The Philadelphia Housing Sector Index climbed 1.1 percent to its best closing level in over a year.

Transportation, software and telecom stocks also saw notable strength, moving higher along with most of the other major sectors.

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

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Economy

Nigeria Accesses $1.5bn from UAE Lender’s $5bn Swap Deal

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First Abu Dhabi Bank

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria has received the first tranche of its $5 billion derivatives financing arrangement with the First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB), the United Arab Emirates’ largest lender.

According to a Bloomberg report published on Friday, the federal government drew about $1.5 billion over the past two weeks through a Total Return Swap (TRS) transaction with the lender.

The report stated that Nigeria will provide naira-denominated securities valued at 133.3 per cent of the loan amount as collateral for the transaction, while international financial institutions continue to express concerns about the risks associated with such derivative-based financing structures.

The financing is expected to support the government’s debt management strategy by replacing more expensive borrowings while helping finance the country’s fiscal deficit.

The first tranche is priced at 395 basis points above the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), rising to SOFR plus 400 basis points thereafter.

The transaction further expands Nigeria’s financial relationship with First Abu Dhabi Bank, which had earlier provided about $1.2 billion to support the construction of a section of the ongoing Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway.

The swap deal has come with much scrutiny from critics and international organisations. Recall that the International Monetary Fund (IMF), after a consultation visit, warned Nigeria against the deal, noting that such transactions are ‌often opaque and complex.

“Our view is that the transactions in these types of structures carry risks. Usually they are opaque, so the terms are not always ⁠very transparent when we reviewed these instruments across countries,” according to the IMF’s mission chief in Nigeria, Mr Christian Ebeke.

Mr Ebeke said Nigeria could instead issue eurobonds to finance its deficits or other means to raise funding, including on concessional terms.

The Senate in April gave its approval to the agreement put forward by President Bola Tinubu, who said his administration intends to use proceeds from the total return swap to refinance expensive debt and pay for infrastructure.

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Economy

Nigeria Needs More Taxpayers, Not Higher Taxes—Oyedele

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FIRS taxes

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, yesterday clarified that the federal government is not increasing taxes but making efforts to raise the tax net.

Mr Oyedele made this remark on Thursday while receiving a delegation from the Chartered Institute of Taxation of Nigeria (CITN) at his office in Abuja.

He hailed the institute for introducing a National Tax Awareness Day and for supporting the current tax reforms of the federal government.

The minister charged the institute to double its effort in public enlightenment, stressing that many Nigerians still view taxation as a means for the government to take money from citizens.

He reiterated that the priority of the government is not to increase tax rates but to broaden the tax base by ensuring that all eligible taxpayers meet their obligations.

“We are still not getting enough revenue from taxes.

“It is not about increasing taxes but making sure that those who are supposed to pay taxes. We want to promote fairness in tax administration,” he said.

Nigeria is challenged by the inability to generate adequate revenue from taxation despite ongoing reforms, stressing that a significant number of eligible taxpayers have yet to fulfil their civic obligations.

He said the challenge facing the country was not necessarily about raising tax rates but ensuring that individuals and businesses that ought to pay taxes do so in a fair and transparent system.

The minister also commended the institute for supporting the federal government’s tax reform agenda and promoting public understanding of taxation, but urged it to intensify its advocacy efforts, noting that many Nigerians still harbour misconceptions about taxation.

According to him, many citizens continue to view taxation merely as a tool for the government to take money from the people rather than as a critical instrument for national development.

“We are still not getting enough revenue from taxes. It is not about increasing taxes, but making sure that those who are supposed to pay taxes. We want to promote fairness in tax administration,” he added.

Mr Oyedele stressed that if Nigeria succeeds in building an efficient and equitable tax system, the impact on infrastructure, public services and economic development would be transformative, challenging the institute to introduce annual awards for the country’s most tax-compliant individuals and organisations as a means of encouraging voluntary compliance and recognising responsible taxpayers.

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Economy

Akara, Kulikuli, Roasted Corn Business Not Capital Intensive—Remi Tinubu

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​By Modupe Gbadeyanka

Nigeria’s First Lady, Mrs Oluremi Tinubu, has given Nigerians business advice that may not involve a lot of money to start.

Speaking with newsmen recently, the wife of President Bola Tinubu said businesses like akara (fried bean cake), kulikuli (a crunchy snack from roasted peanuts or groundnuts) and roasted corn can be set up without breaking the bank.

She disclosed that to support her husband’s Renewed Hope agenda, she has provided funding packages to traders and others to the tune of N3.5 billion.

“To start akara business doesn’t take a lot of money. To start roasting corn and kuli-kuli doesn’t take much. We didn’t give them a loan; we gave it to them as a grant,” she stated.

She further said, “We’ve encouraged Nigerians as best as we could, what is within our hands, I have given, and I keep giving. Those are the things we’ve done.”

“I remember giving for TB (tuberculosis) when I heard of many TB cases; I gave N2 billion, to breast cancer, I gave N1 billion, and to [tackle] malnutrition, I gave N500 million.

“These are the things we’ve been doing to assist the government. So, we’ve had impact in agriculture, social investment, education (as scholarship and ICT training) and others. We are still open to doing more,” she disclosed.

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