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The Black Friday Effect: Financial Markets Behaviour During Sales Season

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FBS Black Friday Sales Season

By FBS

As Black Friday approaches, global broker FBS delves into the relationship between the year’s biggest sales season and its impact on the financial markets. The FBS analysts particularly discover the trends of the world’s largest economy – the American. They analysed reactions across assets and macroeconomic conditions to understand the Black Friday impact better.

What influences the Black Friday numbers

FBS analysts highlight three critical indicators for gauging Black Friday’s impact on the US economy: the number of buyers, the average amount spent, and the total spending.

Over the past 18 years, notably successful in terms of total spending were 2012, 2017, 2019, 2020, and 2022, when the collective expenses of American consumers exceeded $60 billion on average.

Regarding the number of buyers, the period after the subprime mortgage crisis, from 2010 to 2014, was the most active, with the number of American Black Friday shoppers consistently surpassing 200 million. As FBS analysts point out, a correlation with the Federal Reserve’s key interest rate is evident – the rate reached a minimum of 0.25% in 2010 and pushed Americans to participate in Black Friday sales. The following consumer peak was spotted after the COVID crisis, as the Fed had eased the key again, leading to Black Friday numbers soaring to 190 and 186 million in 2019 and 2020, respectively. This was a result of the increased liquidity in the system.

Notably, 2022 deviated from the previously established trend. Despite the 4% key rate, around 197.6 million Americans did their Black Friday shopping and collectively spent over $64 billion. FBS financial market analysts attribute this phenomenon to substantial market liquidity and increased consumer opportunities.

How financial markets react to Black Friday

To understand how financial markets reacted to Black Friday, FBS examined the movement of the S&P 500 index and a separate S&P consumer sector index from 2005 to 2022. Surprisingly, the market reacted more to sales reports than Black Friday, with a predominantly adverse reaction (66% of cases) observed in the S&P 500 index after the report was published.

FBS analysts particularly note that Individual companies, primarily in the consumer sector, exhibit adverse reactions to Black Friday reports. Notable examples include Amazon, Nike, and Home Depot.

Market Expectations

Considering the current macroeconomic situation, FBS analysts anticipate a potential slowdown in sales momentum this Black Friday, which could disappoint the retail sector. However, Black Friday’s influence is not confined to the retail sector but extends its impact to the broader stock market. FBS advises paying attention to the final numbers for the comprehensive global market situation analysis. A decline in consumer spending may signal an economic slowdown.

Disclaimer: This material does not constitute a call to trade, trading advice, or recommendation and is intended for informational purposes only.

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Economy

Naira Further Crashes to N1,349/$1 at Official Market

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Official FX Market

By Adedapo Adesanya

The first trading day in the currency market in Nigeria ended bearish for the Naira as its value further weakened against the US Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Monday by N2.92 or 0.22 per cent to N1,349.24/$1 from the N1,346.32/$1 it was traded last Friday.

Also in the spot market, the Nigerian currency depreciated against the Pound Sterling by N6.62 during the trading day to close at N1,821.87/£1 versus the preceding session’s N1,815.25/£1, and lost N6.80 on the Euro to settle at N1,591.42/€1, in contrast to the previous rate of N1,584.62/€1.

At the GTBank forex desk, the Nigerian Naira crashed against the greenback yesterday by N1 to quote at N1,357/$1 versus the preceding session’s closing value of N1,356/$1, but in the black market, the Naira appreciated by N5 to close at N1,365/$1 compared with the preceding trading day’s N1,370/$1.

The Naira slide came amid renewed pressure as weekly inflows declined, as Bureaux De Change (BDC) operators were unable to purchase Dollars from banks two weeks after the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) reopened the official FX Market window to them.

It had been expected that BDCs would help to further deflate the parallel market premium, but according to reports, BDC operators had yet to commence FX purchases from commercial banks, two weeks after the apex bank said legitimate agents can access up to $150,000 from the banks.

There were no FX inflows from the CBN during the past week, according to a report by the research department of Coronation Merchant Bank.

Meanwhile, Nigeria’s external reserves, which provide the CBN with firepower to support the naira, rose to $48.77 billion as of February 19, 2026.

Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market was in the red as a broader risk-off shift tied to an emerging “AI scare trade” in equities is weighing on crypto markets.

This is leading traders to sell, while the sharp liquidation events that typically attract dip buyers have seen no such move recently, with Bitcoin (BTC) down by 3.2 per cent to $62,901.86.

Further, Ethereum (ETH) depreciated by 2.5 per cent to $1,821.13, Cardano (ADA) slid 1.9 per cent to $0.2571, Litecoin (LTC) went down by 1.9 per cent to $50.45, Solana (SOL) shrank 1.8 per cent to $76.54, Dogecoin (DOGE) declined by 1.7 per cent to $0.0912, Ripple (XRP) slumped 1.2 per cent to $1.32, and Binance Coin (BNB) lost 0.6 per cent to sell for $589.88, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) closed flat at $1.00 each.

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Economy

Crude Oil Slips Ahead Third Round of US–Iran Nuclear Talks

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Utapate crude oil blend

By Adedapo Adesanya

Crude oil eased on Monday ahead of a third round of nuclear talks between the US and Iran, and amid increased economic uncertainty after the latest US tariff upheaval.

According to data, Brent crude futures lost 27 cents or 0.38 per cent to close at $71.49 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 17 cents or 0.26 per cent to per barrel $66.31.

Iran has indicated its preparedness to make concessions on its nuclear programme in return for sanctions lifting and recognition of its right to enrich uranium.

The Iranian government, facing pressure at home with a growing opposition and globally with threats of a US military strike, appears ready for a third round of Omani-mediated talks with American negotiators this week.

According to reports, the Foreign Minister of Oman, Mr Badr Albusaidi, on Sunday said talks would resume on Thursday, February 26, in Geneva “with a positive push to go the extra mile toward finalising the deal” over Iran’s nuclear program.

In separate remarks, the Iranian government suggested talks in the Swiss city on that date. However, there has been no confirmation from the US officials.

The US administration has been pressuring Iran to agree to curtail its nuclear program, which Iran insists is intended for peaceful, civilian purposes, such as electricity generation. The US, along with Israel and others in the West, has accused Iran of intending to build atomic weapons.

US President Donald Trump has dispatched two aircraft carrier strike groups, with dozens of fighter jets and bombers to the region, and other military planes and supporting forces have been spotted flying into air bases in the Middle East.

President Trump said on Saturday that he would raise a temporary tariff from 10 per cent to 15 per cent on US imports from all countries, the maximum allowed under the law.

This came after a US Supreme Court ruling last week struck down key parts of President Trump’s tariff plans, rekindling uncertainty among investors and businesses.

Goldman Sachs lifted its Q4 2026 Brent forecast to $60 and WTI to $56 per barrel, citing lower-than-expected OECD stock levels.

The bank still projects a 2.3 million barrels per day surplus in 2026, assuming no major supply disruptions.

Meanwhile, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) may resume production increases in 2026 amid limited inventory builds and shifting market dynamics.

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Economy

NGX RegCo Cautions Investors on Recent Price Movements

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NGX RegCo

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The investing public has been advised to exercise due diligence before trading stocks on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited.

This caution was given by the NGX Regulation Limited (NGX RegCo), the independent regulatory arm of the NGX Group Plc.

The advisory became necessary in response to notable price movements observed in the shares of certain listed companies over recent trading sessions.

On Monday, the bourse suspended trading in the shares of newly-listed Zichis Agro-allied Industries Plc. The company’s stocks gained almost 900 per cent within a month of its listing on Customs Street.

In a statement today, NGX RegCo urged investors to avoid speculative trading based on unverified information and to consult licensed intermediaries such as stockbrokers or investment advisers when needed.

It explained that its advisory is part of its standard market surveillance functions, as it serves as a measured reminder for investors to prioritise informed and disciplined decision-making.

The notice emphasised that the Exchange will continue to monitor market activities closely in line with its mandate to ensure a fair, orderly, and transparent market.

“NGX RegCo encourages all investors to base their decisions on publicly available information, including a thorough assessment of company fundamentals, financial performance, and risk profile,” a part of the disclosure said.

It reassured all stakeholders that the NGX remains stable, well-regulated, and resilient, saying the platform continues to foster an environment where investors can participate with confidence, supported by robust oversight and transparent market operations.

“Our primary responsibility is to maintain a level playing field where market participants can trade with confidence, backed by timely and accurate information.

“This advisory is a routine communication, reinforcing that sound fundamentals, not speculation, remain the foundation for sustainable investment outcomes. We are fully committed to preserving the integrity and stability of our market,” the chief executive of NGX RegCo, Mr Olufemi Shobanjo, stated.

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