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The Black Friday Effect: Financial Markets Behaviour During Sales Season

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FBS Black Friday Sales Season

By FBS

As Black Friday approaches, global broker FBS delves into the relationship between the year’s biggest sales season and its impact on the financial markets. The FBS analysts particularly discover the trends of the world’s largest economy – the American. They analysed reactions across assets and macroeconomic conditions to understand the Black Friday impact better.

What influences the Black Friday numbers

FBS analysts highlight three critical indicators for gauging Black Friday’s impact on the US economy: the number of buyers, the average amount spent, and the total spending.

Over the past 18 years, notably successful in terms of total spending were 2012, 2017, 2019, 2020, and 2022, when the collective expenses of American consumers exceeded $60 billion on average.

Regarding the number of buyers, the period after the subprime mortgage crisis, from 2010 to 2014, was the most active, with the number of American Black Friday shoppers consistently surpassing 200 million. As FBS analysts point out, a correlation with the Federal Reserve’s key interest rate is evident – the rate reached a minimum of 0.25% in 2010 and pushed Americans to participate in Black Friday sales. The following consumer peak was spotted after the COVID crisis, as the Fed had eased the key again, leading to Black Friday numbers soaring to 190 and 186 million in 2019 and 2020, respectively. This was a result of the increased liquidity in the system.

Notably, 2022 deviated from the previously established trend. Despite the 4% key rate, around 197.6 million Americans did their Black Friday shopping and collectively spent over $64 billion. FBS financial market analysts attribute this phenomenon to substantial market liquidity and increased consumer opportunities.

How financial markets react to Black Friday

To understand how financial markets reacted to Black Friday, FBS examined the movement of the S&P 500 index and a separate S&P consumer sector index from 2005 to 2022. Surprisingly, the market reacted more to sales reports than Black Friday, with a predominantly adverse reaction (66% of cases) observed in the S&P 500 index after the report was published.

FBS analysts particularly note that Individual companies, primarily in the consumer sector, exhibit adverse reactions to Black Friday reports. Notable examples include Amazon, Nike, and Home Depot.

Market Expectations

Considering the current macroeconomic situation, FBS analysts anticipate a potential slowdown in sales momentum this Black Friday, which could disappoint the retail sector. However, Black Friday’s influence is not confined to the retail sector but extends its impact to the broader stock market. FBS advises paying attention to the final numbers for the comprehensive global market situation analysis. A decline in consumer spending may signal an economic slowdown.

Disclaimer: This material does not constitute a call to trade, trading advice, or recommendation and is intended for informational purposes only.

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Economy

FX Transactions: Court Jails Lagos BDC Operator Without CBN Licence

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Faruk Umar illegal BDC operator

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

An unauthorised Bureaux De Change (BDC) operator, Mr Faruk Umar, has been convicted and sentenced to six months imprisonment by Justice Chukwujekwu Aneke of the Federal High Court sitting in Ikoyi, Lagos.

Justice Aneke on Wednesday, February 5, 2025, held that Mr Umar was guilty of the offence levelled against him by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC).

The judge also pronounced a fine of N50,000, in lieu of the prison sentence, which should be paid into the Consolidated Revenue Account of the Federation. His phone was also forfeited to the Federal Government of Nigeria.

Mr Umar’s road to the correctional centre began when he was arrested by operatives of the EFCC for dealing in foreign exchange transactions without a requisite licence from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

He pleaded guilty to a one-count charge raised against him, which read, “That you, Faruk Umar, sometime in August 2024 at Eko Hotel Area, Victoria Island Lagos State, within the jurisdiction of this court, engaged in a foreign exchange transaction other than through the official foreign exchange market and you thereby committed an offence contrary to Section 11(1) (a) of the National Economic Intelligence Committee Establishment, (ETC) Act, 1994 and punishable under Section 11(2) of the same Act.”

The convict, alongside others, was arrested on August 26, 2024, following intelligence on the activities of illegal BDC operators at the Eko Hotel area of Victoria Island, Lagos.

He was subsequently arraigned by the Lagos Zonal Directorate of the agency on a one-count charge bordering on fraudulent foreign exchange transactions.

After he pleaded guilty, the prosecution counsel, C.C.Okezie, sought to present an investigative officer of the EFCC, Hamisu Sanni, to review the facts of the matter.

Sanni narrated that the convict confessed to being involved in buying and selling of foreign currency without a licence from the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN.

He told the court that Mr Umar’s phone was subjected to forensic examination, adding that “It revealed over 40 conversations related to forex transactions with other individuals.”

Thereafter, Okezie, through Sanni, tendered in evidence the confessional statements of the convict as well as findings from the investigation. He, therefore, prayed the court to convict him as charged and also sentence him accordingly.

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Economy

VFD Grows 2024 Earnings by 84.45% on Strategic Investments, Divestments

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VFD-Group

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

Nigerian financial services provider VFD Group Plc impressed its shareholders with an 84.45 per cent improvement in its gross earnings in the 2024 fiscal year after making strategic investments in financial services, fintech, asset management, real estate, logistics, and capital markets.

In the financial statements released to the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited, the company recorded N83.21 billion as gross earnings in FY 2024, higher than the N45.11 billion achieved in FY 2023.

It was observed that investment and similar income accounted for 85.54 per cent of the gross earnings with N71.17 billion versus N34.28 billion a year earlier, indicating a 107.62 per cent growth.

VFD attributed this to incomes from divestments, interest income from treasury activities, loans, advances and placements, and dividend income.

Further analysis of the results revealed that other income contributed 11.24 per cent to the gross earnings in the period under review with N9.35 billion compared with the N7.16 billion recorded in the preceding financial year.

This was majorly impacted by income from logistics and hospitality businesses, fair value gain on Investment property, and foreign exchange gains.

Business Post reports that the decision of the management to increase the staff strength to meet the increased level of business activities as well as salaries review to retain the staff raised the total expenses in the year by 49.49 per cent to N19.75 billion from N13.21 billion in the previous year.

A look at this line item showed that personnel expenses gulp 23.24 per cent of the total expenses after taking N4.59 billion versus N3.39 billion in FY 2023.

The organisation ended the year with a net profit of N10.41 billion compared with about N750 million in the preceding year after a payment of N2.05 billion as taxes versus N270.00 million a year earlier.

“In 2024, the group demonstrated a robust financial performance, underscoring the effectiveness of our investment strategy and the resilience of our business model.

“Strategic investments and divestments drove a significant increase in earnings and profitability during the year.

“We reinforced financial resilience, expanded our investment portfolio, and strengthened our governance framework, all while embracing digital innovation,” the chief executive, Mr Nonso Okpala, stated.

“Looking ahead to 2025, we are committed to capitalizing on emerging opportunities across Africa and the Western World, while consistently delivering long-term value for our shareholders, leveraging innovation, strategic partnerships, and disciplined execution to sustain our market leadership,” he added.

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Economy

OTC Exchange Records 2.1% Expansion in Sixth Trading Week of 2025

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NASD OTC exchange

By Adedapo Adesanya

The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange returned to the green territory in Week 6 of 2025 after it closed higher by 2.1 per cent last week.

This increased the portfolios of investors by N37.43 billion to leave the market capitalisation of the OTC exchange at N1.804 trillion compared with the N1.766 trillion it closed a week earlier and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) went up by 0.46 per cent or 66.06 points to settle at 3,184.87 points, in contrast to the previous week’s 3,118.81 points.

In the week, the volume of equities transacted in the sixth trading week of the year shrank by 73.3 per cent to 31.3 million units from 117.0 million units, the value of securities traded slumped by 75.6 per cent to N53.2 million from N217.8 million.

Afriland Properties Plc ended the week as the most active stock by value with N12.1 million, Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc recorded N10.7 million, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc traded N7.5 million, Geo-Fluids Plc posted N6.0 million, and 11 Plc recorded N5.1 million.

IGI Plc was also the most traded instrument by volume with 27.2 million units, Geo-Fluids Plc transacted 1.33 million units, Afriland Properties Plc traded 0.722 million, Food Concepts Plc exchanged 0.496 million units, and Mixta Real Estate Plc posted 0.375 million units.

Okitipupa Plc gained 33.0 per cent to end at N93.90 per unit versus N70.13 per unit, Mixta Real Estate Plc appreciated by 20.9 per cent to N3.42 per share from N2.83 per share, Food Concepts Plc grew by 14.6 per cent to N1.65 per unit from N1.44 per unit, and Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc soared by 10.6 per cent to N24.00 per share from N21.74 per share.

In addition, UBN Property Plc rose by 9.9 per cent to N2.22 per unit from N2.02 per unit, Afriland Properties Plc advanced by 4.6 per cent to N17.00 per share from N16.25 per share, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc surged by 2.8 per cent to N40.10 per unit from N39.01 per unit, and Geo-Fluids Plc added 2.7 per cent to end at N4.54 per share versus N4.42 per share.

On the flip side, Air Liquide Plc depreciated 10 per cent to N7.92 per unit from N8.80 per unit, Acorn Petroleum Plc dropped 8.7 per cent to finish at N1.26 per share versus N1.38 per share, IGI Plc plunged by 4.8 per cent to 40 Kobo per unit from 42 Kobo per unit, and 11 Plc moderated by 1.2 per cent to N253.00 per share from N256.00 per share.

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